Dr senthi bought SEMB W15...(cse.profit is correct)

cse.profit wrote:@marusira- yes if he collected his real quantity even tomorrow another announcement should come....if so this will be a real winner....for some reason today you might have wondered that no one of you had collected the warrant 15. If their was any single guy who collected he is lying because i collected the entire lot at 1.3. so by the way my order is only half filled... so get your decision wisely. I must not say this confidential info. but for the benefit of the forum members i disclose my trading activity so that the forum members can get due advantage over that info over the others ...all the best....but always remember never match the price for less than 1 rupee between voting and warrant.....always remember DR can always perform his usual gimmicks by dragging the voting down and rising the warrant. he is not trading . he is investing to the future and saving some millions/billions of money which he is going to loose. but you and i are not here to invest in the long run.. so always remember identify the value range and get in to action within that range....for disclosing my personal trading activity some kind of an award should be given.hehehe..jokes apart....play safely.....semb gets wild sometimes....

for those of you who missed reading my analysis can view here..since i cannot repeat what i have said earlier
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t9694p25-semb-w-0015-unseen-analysis#67641

cse.profit wrote:@marusira- yes if he collected his real quantity even tomorrow another announcement should come....if so this will be a real winner....for some reason today you might have wondered that no one of you had collected the warrant 15. If their was any single guy who collected he is lying because i collected the entire lot at 1.3. so by the way my order is only half filled... so get your decision wisely. I must not say this confidential info. but for the benefit of the forum members i disclose my trading activity so that the forum members can get due advantage over that info over the others ...all the best....but always remember never match the price for less than 1 rupee between voting and warrant.....always remember DR can always perform his usual gimmicks by dragging the voting down and rising the warrant. he is not trading . he is investing to the future and saving some millions/billions of money which he is going to loose. but you and i are not here to invest in the long run.. so always remember identify the value range and get in to action within that range....for disclosing my personal trading activity some kind of an award should be given.hehehe..jokes apart....play safely.....semb gets wild sometimes....

for those of you who missed reading my analysis can view here..since i cannot repeat what i have said earlier
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t9694p25-semb-w-0015-unseen-analysis#67641

cse.profit wrote:First of all i should say one thing. I didn't post any thing about the warrant 15 since i saw lot of manipulative posts going on with the warrant 15 as well as some did not even trying reading the above analysis and asking from me what is going to happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. Here , my friends i am not a fortune teller neither i know DP nor NP. And this is to all of you who wants a quick buck. please at least read this or do some little home work before asking whether to buy or sell semb warrant 15. I have got lot of messages but most are crap without any reasoning. I am having very valuable, enjoyable conversations with some of the forum members but when i see crappy meaning less Crookes even i get pissed off. so this is not only to this share. please before you buy at least try to search from this forum and do some home work. Also on the other hand i am very impressed to see about some members . They do their home work very well and stick to their plan. okay lets get back to my topic. warrant 15.

@paypal- yes brother even that can possibly happen. really good that you are reasoning about possible future scenarios. That is really good. so if something like that happens we need to have a back up plan. but still brother warrant holders 15 has a margin of safety which oscillate between 30 cents 40 cents at a given time. so if you can monitor this margin of safety properly it doesn't matter what doctor does. so today i am more bullish on the warrant 15 than ever and i will explain why below.all the best.

will extract some reply's and post i did for some other articles. had very mind teasing chatting session with few great individuals as well. but will not disclose any extracts from them due to privacy .

cse.profit wrote:I will not say yes or no since it is not ethical to say so....but will tell you one thing if you trade wisely instead of the loss you can convert in to a humongous profit only trading with warrant 15. I am very bullish on the warrant 15 with the current prices. I sold my holdings and re entered again at higher prices. It IS FOOLISH. isn't it.. No...once i came to my profit target i sold it . but then when i see the momentum builds up and i am sure of the direction of the momentum i entered even at a higher price. I will not sell it even at 1.5 since i know the real value of it and mind you i have few millions of shares(and now don't go and check the shareholdings list to identify me...hehehe) and will keep it until real buyers come..today once a sudden buying pressure exerted all of you are excited about warrant 15..but last few days i was the only person who collected it and i knew very well no one was interested at buying it for 1.4 even though the voting traded at 2.7. so now some haphazardly at 1.5...i bought a lot today. not haphazardly. I bought smartly Because i know the profit i will get. history will repeat and when after some 4/5 days again when a sudden buying pressure comes no one will be able to buy at these prices and we will see many posts saying bought semb warrant 15 at 2 rupees will i be able to sell it at 2.1. so kalum the answer is brother don't get panic you will be able to sell it at 1.7 before December 12th if you have patience. mark my words. will tell all of you the cycle what is going to happen with regard to the warrant 15..It will be stagnated like this at present and will be a play ground for the traders like you and me. but in the coming days strategic and smart money will definitely come to the warrant 15 time to time. we are not sure whether the money inflow to the warrant is a money outflow of the voting share. if that happens warrant holders you are been manipulated by ----- you know...so if that happens be wise. be patient. and Don't panic sell ...read my early post for possible scenarios ..some one will make the voting down and make warrant down and from the entire money he can re enter warrant at a very attractive price. by the way Dr recently bought few millions at 1.3 . so entering again at 1.4/1.5 is not a big deal for him. but the other possible scenario is fresh smart money can come. so hope you all get the difference. if not will explain later. any how in the coming weeks this small surges due to inflow of smart money will match the price of warrant with the voting and it will repeat until end of November. by the beginning of December all the warrant holders will get a letter from the company stating that "Thank you very much.Please paw nodee warrants 15 subscribe karanna by paying 1 rupee and warrant 16 by 80 cents". so when people like me get this letter we will be the most happiest people since we know the value and on the spot return we going to get....Their might be people saying that voting will go down. But whatever happen it will not go beyond our(warrant 15 holders) cost. so at least we can sell at break even. but warrant 16 holders will get very panic. actually they should if not 'the god must be crazy'. so some of them will sell at market prices..Holy cow.....hahaha.....and seen this our ignorant warrant holders who become panic and the warrant holders who doesn't have cash to convert will sellout......all the dumb money will wipe out within minutes and the smart sri lanakan equity forum members(hehehe- not a joke . I am serious.hehehe) including you and me will inflow our smart money to absorb their dumb selling pressure...and this cycle will go until the last 3/2 and last day. I am 100% SURE SOME ONE- i don't know the name , but some one who has brain will buy the entire remaining to match the warrant with voting. If no one does it , at least i will do that..hehehe . since any tom will understand the value at the final minute.so it is a matter of patience and time...wait ,don't panic....you will win. wait and watch the game. it may drop to 1.3. but i will not sell even a 1 share.That is my logic. you take your decision at your own calculated risk levels. all the best. for today's worst case scenario. now the voting trades at 2.8 and the warrant at 1.4/1.5. just calculate whether you are in the losing side or winning side. even at 2.8 ...kalum you have bought the same voting share for 2.6(pretty smart kolla...ahhh)....jokes apart...please don't treat this a investment note to buy ,sell or hold. I stated what i would do if i were you..ADIOS.

PATIENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME

cse.profit wrote:@marusira- yes if he collected his real quantity even tomorrow another announcement should come....if so this will be a real winner....for some reason today you might have wondered that no one of you had collected the warrant 15. If their was any single guy who collected he is lying because i collected the entire lot at 1.3. so by the way my order is only half filled... so get your decision wisely. I must not say this confidential info. but for the benefit of the forum members i disclose my trading activity so that the forum members can get due advantage over that info over the others ...all the best....but always remember never match the price for less than 1 rupee between voting and warrant.....always remember DR can always perform his usual gimmicks by dragging the voting down and rising the warrant. he is not trading . he is investing to the future and saving some millions/billions of money which he is going to loose. but you and i are not here to invest in the long run.. so always remember identify the value range and get in to action within that range....for disclosing my personal trading activity some kind of an award should be given.hehehe..jokes apart....play safely.....semb gets wild sometimes....

for those of you who missed reading my analysis can view here..since i cannot repeat what i have said earlier
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t9694p25-semb-w-0015-unseen-analysis#67641

I think these 2 posts are enough for you all to understand what i told in last week. even though i start replying their were lot of questions asked by will it go to 5 next week. if the voting goes to 4 what would be the warrant price. Theirs nothing wrong in asking that kind of questions. But when i talk with them some of them praise about my article but when i ask some basic question i understand that they have not even read my analysis. How pathetic. I also have work to do rather than sitting in front of the lap top and writing long messages since my wife is very pretty. so from jokes apart please do some home work before you enter or exit from a share. so any new comer who is seen this thread for the first time if you go through it you will see that my predictions have come true. I am not a fortune teller. but what i told was the best thing i would do if i was the DR. and DR has proven that he is one of the smartest players at CSE. I wont go and disclose his shares and prices . any one who has monitored the amount he has made from semb only.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/9151316418152_.pdf

This is the latest news. surprise....no not at all... i would be surprise if tomorrow or day after tomorrow we don't see another similar pdf. I mean it is logical isn't it. voting is trading at 2.8/2.9. and warrant is just 1.5..so it is simple mathematics. so i had my exit point and due to this announcement i am more bullish on the share and should re consider about the exit price. please logically understand what is happening. lot of people have asked me what would happen if the voting comes down. my god ....it is so simple. you sell the warrant . their is 1.3 / 1. 4 rupees price difference and if you monitor well and even at a huge market drop you can exit easily in the warrant 15 with a minimum loss. do you know the difference of playing with warrant 15 and voting share.... it is like you hire a time travel machine and you got to the future and you see its price and trading with that observation. why i say so. the warrants real price is always lagged by 30/ 40 cents and you always know where it is heading and its direction by just following the voting....but does any of you can say what is the direction of the voting..no .so simple as that. I cant explain this simple theory more simpler than this.all the very best my friends....

hey guys shall we re calculate with the updated data...mata nikan kasnawata wage re calculate karanna hithuna. marketuth close ne. so we will do.

total voting shares,warrants holding= 241,572,424+4,265,724=245,838,148 shares
total issued voting shares/warrants = 826,486,514+381,455,314=1,207,941,828shares

so the percentage = 20.35%(245/1207*100)
so my dear friends he is having only 20.35% of the company shares at present. not 29.23%..so keep that in mind and if he wants more.the only way is to buy from the warrant 15 from the market . so earlier we calculated that only 6.3 million voting shares can be calculated by him for the 30% rule. lets calculate the number of voting warrants he can collect max if he had money and interest on the company.after all having 29.23% and buying majority of the warrant 15 at 1.1 he will be happy to enter at 1.2/1.3 or even up to 1.7(voting price 2.7/2.6) .

total number of voting after conversion= 1,207,941,828shares
30% of it = 362,382,548 shares
currently he owns 245,838,148 shares and the maximum he can get would be 116544400 shares(by deducting). which is 116.5 million voting warrants. Oh my god. why didn't i realize this. How come i became this ignorant.its 116.5 million warrants not 6.3 million ...so this is to the people who say that dr.senthil cant buy more of semb shares due to the mandatory offer..Hope all the doubts are over.I don't know whether dr will enter or exit.....but if he has the money people remember he can enter without facing any regulations(We all know that he has money). Now from his point of view if i were him i would sell few of my voting shareholding such that with the money i buy warrant 15 until achieving a 29.99% shareholding leaving the additional money for warrant conversion.if he sells voting .it'll be a massive profit for him. and if he buys warrant 15 still it''ll be a massive profit for him.....and my friend 30% shareholding..don't even think about it.whoever wanting the controlling stake now its a battle between who gets the biggest amount of voting warrants. so all i wanted to tell is the IMPORTANCE OF SEMB.WARRANT 15 for the controlling parties. we don't know the future. tomorrow the warrant might even fall to 1 rupee. but the value remains the same.and plus remember the voting warrant has a Public Holding of 99.36%.so will stop here giving you all a time to ponder about..have done some more analysis as well. will contribute based on interest. as you may have notice i don't generally post a lot. quality matters over the quantity. tc. Happy trading

so from the above extract i guess you know he can possibly buy up to another 116.5 million voting warrants. so lets put down what he has bought after my post in to the formula and shall we calculate how much he can buy without getting in to the trouble of giving an mandatory offer to buy all the shares of the company.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/2331314355660_445.pdf
august 26. 1.8085 million shares at 1.1

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/4221315983469_445.pdf
september 14th . 2.3093 million shares at 1.3

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/9151316418152_.pdf
september 19th
1.0219 million at 1.3 and
13.4787 million at 1.4....
hmmmmm......people now don't say that I AM THE DOCTOR....k....hehhe
so shall we add how much he have bought after my post so to calculate how much can he further buy.
18.6184 million worth of warrants he has bought from the market..he has bought around 250 lax worth shares....its peanuts to him.
so margin of safety for doctor= 116.5- 18.6184=97.8816 million.

JESUS...................how nice mathematics is....

as i said if i see another announcement very soon i wont be surprised. but mind you dr might even manipulate all of us including you an dme and he might even exit. I am not a fortune teller.but even that happens the wise player has the opportunity to even get rid of the warrant with good profits...so be safe and play safe....not a buy or sell recommendation. I have 2.5 million of warrant 15 as at today.
Would love to have a rep.....my wife is calling me...but i am here with all of you.bye bye.will make some love and return.hehehe.
all the best.
PATIENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME