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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start?

Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start?

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1Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Sun Sep 18, 2011 9:35 am

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Often we see comments “Bull Run to commence soon” in this forum.
I wonder if any expert can explain how to identify a start of a so-called Bull Run early?

2Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Sun Sep 18, 2011 1:51 pm

investor1984

investor1984
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kithsiri wrote:Often we see comments “Bull Run to commence soon” in this forum.
I wonder if any expert can explain how to identify a start of a so-called Bull Run early?


When u sees a bull dung here and there... thats the best sign of a bull run

3Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Sun Sep 18, 2011 10:19 pm

Investor99


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@investor1984 wrote:
@Kithsiri wrote:Often we see comments “Bull Run to commence soon” in this forum.
I wonder if any expert can explain how to identify a start of a so-called Bull Run early?


When u sees a bull dung here and there... thats the best sign of a bull run

Good one lol! lol! lol!

4Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Sun Sep 18, 2011 10:38 pm

laki


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
kkkkkkkkkk

5Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Sun Sep 18, 2011 10:43 pm

NimeshaJK

NimeshaJK
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
LMAO!!! Very Happy Very Happy

http://njkentertainment.freeforums.org/index.php

6Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:19 am

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good one lol!

7Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:40 am

parackrama

parackrama
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Very Happy lol!

8Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:42 am

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@investor1984 wrote:
@Kithsiri wrote:Often we see comments “Bull Run to commence soon” in this forum.
I wonder if any expert can explain how to identify a start of a so-called Bull Run early?


When u sees a bull dung here and there... thats the best sign of a bull run

lol! lol! lol!

9Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:19 am

Tenn

Tenn
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Looks like BULL RAN inside the server room.. Very Happy

10Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:39 pm

Sasanka De Silva

Sasanka De Silva
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@investor1984 wrote:When u sees a bull dung here and there... thats the best sign of a bull run
Anything else other than Bull Shi*?

11Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 7:15 pm

RichDad

RichDad
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
An Anatomy of the Stock Market! - Bull And Bear Market Cycles


In financial markets, the "majority is always wrong." When the investing majority or the crowd is overly bearish, this is the best time to be buying stocks. When the crowd is overly exuberant, this is the time to be selling stocks. The financial markets work in this ironic way because not everyone can win in the market.


The Start of a Bull Market
The bottom of the market starts at a time when the stock market is weak and the general population is pessimistic. At this point most investors sell after having endured a long and torturous bear market. This extreme pessimism found at a bottom is always irrational and undeserved. Now the market is undervalued and is a bargain. Savvy investors, the "smart money", buy bargain stocks knowing that they will be able to sell them higher in the near future. Smart money buying, called accumulation, causes stocks to rise.
The smart money often consists of operators, and corporate insiders (promoters of companies). These traders have access to information that the general public does not.

Rising stocks eventually gain the respect of institutional investors, as billions of dollars of capital is introduced into the market place. Mutual fund investment causes the stock market to advance in a powerful manner. Much of the steady large trends are powered by institutional investors. After the stock market has gained, stocks are now fairly valued and are no longer considered bargains. The smart money is now sitting on a large profit, as well. The average investor is still skeptical, however.
As bull market events unfold, retail investors begin to take interest in stocks. Retail investors, or the unsophisticated little guy, make up the vast majority of investors. This group does not invest for a living. Retail investors often make investment decisions based on what they read in financial magazines, from their brokers and from tips from friends. As the flood of retail capital is invested, the market soars, causing great euphoria. At this point in the cycle, many companies become public, or launch an IPO. Companies go public when investor sentiment is most optimistic so as to gain the highest possible stock price. IPO's generate even more optimism as unsophisticated investors buy into the fallacious thoughts of instant riches. Now is the time when many small investors become wealthy. In this phase, stocks are doubling and tripling as the media cheers on the advancing bull market.
At this point, the smart money sells, or distributes, the now overvalued stocks to overconfident retail investors. The smart money knows that overvalued stocks are no longer worthy investments, and will soon drop in value. Widespread greed always occurs, in some form, at stock market tops. Sometimes this greed takes form as stock market scams and fraud. These immoral activities can take place because irrational retail investors will buy a stock simply because it is glamorous. To compound the problems, investors will now start to use margin, or leverage, to further accelerate gains. All caution is thrown to the wind as investors think "the old rules don't apply" .


The Start of a Bear Market
After mutual funds and retail investors are fully invested, the market is overbought. This means that there is no more cash to fuel the rally. The market can only go in one direction: down. All it takes is just a hint of negative news and the market collapses under its own weight. Investors quickly realize the market is made of smoke and mirrors, as frauds or other scams come to light.
How does one know that the market is topping. Though I am no expert, these are my observations :-
1. Monthly charts at all time high.
2. Momentum indicators in weekly charts showing overbought levels or prices falling below 30 week average.
3. Prices falling below the 200 day moving average or below the two-thirds fibonnacci retracement of the primary market trend.
When panic selling starts, a market will always fall quicker than it had risen. Oftentimes, as everyone heads for the exit at the same time, there isn't anyone willing to buy the stock. This can be especially disastrous for margin users as they grow deeply indebted to their brokers. Bankruptcy is the usual result for these foolish gamblers. The majority of retail investors don't sell even as the market is plummeting. This crowd keeps holding on to stocks in hopes that the market will recover. As the market plummets 25%, then 50% the average retail investor foolishly holds on, in complete denial that the bull market is over. Finally retail investors sell every stock they own plummeting the market even further. This mass exodus is called capitulation.


The Cycle Starts Again
It is at this point that stocks are undervalued once again. The smart money is accumulating and stocks rise. The majority of retail investors bought at the top and sold at the very bottom. This is the very essence of the "dumb money". They are perpetually late into the game. This cycle continues over and over. Only the smart money actually "buys low and sells high". After trading in this manner, the dumb money will adhere to adages such as, "the stock market is risky". In reality, however, the stock market is only risky if you trade like the mindless majority!

12Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 7:16 pm

MY MONEY

MY MONEY
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Tenn wrote:Looks like BULL RAN inside the server room.. Very Happy

yehaaaaaaaaaaaa
BULL RUN in to the server room and RUN over it , thats y the system failure lol! lol!

13Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:26 pm

Sasanka De Silva

Sasanka De Silva
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
RichDad
Excellent and you deserve more than one + Rep.
Thanks & God Bless you.

14Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:14 pm

snowball5


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
RichDad ,
It is superb. Well done

15Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:07 am

bePositive

bePositive
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Bull markets are about optimism which is why a bull run in the stock market is the time to take profits higher. It’s an exciting time for an investor with rising indexes stock values go up which is why a bull run in the stock market is the time to take profits to a new level. Practice will make you a great player in no time.

If you aren’t familiar with options it’s a way for a small investment to become big. When you purchase a call option you buy the right to purchase the stock from the call seller at a named price and by a specified date.

On a bull run you never actually buy the stock but instead sell it to another investor for more than you paid for it before the expiration. That’s why a bull run in the stock market is the time to take profits to a new level.

You can sell your call option to anyone who is wants to exercise it. You can then sell your call for at least rs2000 more right now and if you hang on in the bull market you are likely to be able to get even more which is why a bull run in the stock market is the time to take profits higher.

That’s just one example of why a bull run in the stock market is the time to take profits to a new level. You can quickly see how easy it is. Only one word of advice – always have your exit strategy planned.



http://www.viabletraffic.com

16Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Empty Re: Vital Signs of a Bull Run Start? Tue Sep 20, 2011 10:22 pm

RichDad

RichDad
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Cheers friends! Smile Lets all win together!!

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