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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CSE performance from 21st to 30th September

CSE performance from 21st to 30th September

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nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I think CSE performance during this period (21st to 30th September 2011) would be negative. I quote following reasons for my prediction.

1. There are forced selling (T+5) settlements happening. So by the end of the month usual settlements will be there. So that will bring down the market.

2. September 30th is a quarter end for many companies. So many finance companies will be recovering their unsecured margin facilities. Also it will be 9 months performance for many banking stocks. So they will be pushing for margin settlement calls too. So there will be some forced selling.

3. On 28th September a new IPO will open for "Trade Finance & Investments Ltd". So there will be some liquidity in the market absorbed by this IPO. Mostly day traders will sell their existing stocks and raise funds. Although IPOs are not welcomed by many investors there will be some impact.

4. 25% debt clearing directive by SEC still applies I think. So there will be a negative impact on the market.

5. Still there is a lack of foreign investments in to the CSE. During the first 9 month in this year every month there is huge foreign selling. This will continue.

Please correct if I am wrong. I can't think of any positive news that will start a upward trend. Any suggestions or predictions for any upward trend?

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Correct view selling presuer will continue but some illiquid stocks will move like REG,SINI.................

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Dear nkalansu, I have different views on the points you mentioned.

No. 1. Force selling on T+5 basis is a general practice and nothing specific for the month of September.

No.2 . I dont think that Financial organizations or Banks have any unsecured margin facilities. Margin facilities are always backed by shares lodged in the CDS. However large scale players may obtain bank facilities without any collateral and no reason for banks to ask them to settle credit on sep. 30th coz Banks are very happy to maintain the accounts of those largescale players as Banks can earn lot of interest income from them.

No.3. Trade, finance and Investment IPO is a minor matter. It will not affect the market as softlogic or BIL.

No.4. Most of the credit has now covered with Brokers credit system after Brokers were allowed to lend.Therefore only a small % will need tobe settled before 30th Sep.


No. 5. Forein investers play very little role in our Market yet. We have some local investors who deal over Rs. One Billion a day. Average foreing buying is around Rs. 300-400 mn a day now.

Considering the above I dont think that market will drop drasticaly during this month.

thushanthalk


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
It can be expect a short term downward trend due to credit clearance. If panic sellers could patient and hold their shares It will not red as much as people expect...
for more reading http://accountancy-forum.blogspot.com/ (you can find so may education and knowledge building links from this blog.)
Happy trading

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
There are some indications of force selling , already started.

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
There is an article in the first page of the Daily FT which indicates that there are forced selling. Has any investor in this forum experienced this or know anybody had their shares sold in this way?



Last edited by nkalansu on Wed Sep 21, 2011 8:30 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : grammar mistake)

NewInvestor

NewInvestor
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@thushanthalk wrote:It can be expect a short term downward trend due to credit clearance. If panic sellers could patient and hold their shares It will not red as much as people expect...
for more reading http://accountancy-forum.blogspot.com/ (you can find so may education and knowledge building links from this blog.)
Happy trading

Are you trying to promote your blog bro?

Soundchips


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@nkalansu wrote:There is an article in the first page of the Daily FT which indicates that there are forced selling. Has any investor in this forum experienced this or know anybody had their shares sold in this way?

unnecessary panic selling also going on....

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Oh dear, it appears that my assumptions are correct. Slowly its coming down. Lot of haaa hooo about credit limits and forced selling.

I really wish my predictions to go wrong and market to recover soon. Anyway good time to collect.

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Is there any forced selling? Please confirm....

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