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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Advice to the warrant 16 holders

Advice to the warrant 16 holders

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1Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:11 pm

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I get lot of messages regarding the warrant 15/16. Since i have given a detailed explanation regarding warrant 15 i will not talk about it here...it can go up . it can even go down very lower values(sapumal i hope now u will agree.hehe). I am not a fortune teller neither nimal perera is my brother in law.
so will not discuss a single thing regarding what is good to buy. not even in the semb family. People who have the holding power will reap the benefits. but wont to emphasize on one thing.

warrant 16 holders...... you all are keeping a time bomb with you. I would love to see a bullish trend of the semb family since i hold a considerable amount. but as you noticed the semb family was bit stagnant for the last week and if the trend seems to be the same near the conversion date warrant 16 holders will face a time bomb blast..
non voting trading at 90 cents and according to some analysts it should go up since the warrant is trading at 40 cents/50 cents. but i bet you it might be at the 80 cents/90 cents level even after the conversion. since in the non voting class number of shares is very high. so once the conversion happens their will be no chance for it to see the desired rise. so to any one who has a common sense if you are not willing to convert and stay in the long run SELL your warrant 16 now and do whatever you want. even doing nothing at all by selling now at whatever the price will give you a sure profit. I thought of putting this posts due to the questions asked by you all. Hope you got my view. Traders you are always welcome to play. But don't burn your hands.

coz THIS IS A TIME BOMB.
cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry



Last edited by cse.profit on Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:26 pm; edited 1 time in total

2Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:05 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I was thinking what the hell wrong with SEMB.16 as its not moving much and when the X is @ .80 - .90, this is not attractive at all with the additional amount to be paid for conversion..

Thanks for the detailed post..

3Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:13 pm

MarketResearch

MarketResearch
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@cse.profit wrote:I get lot of messages regarding the warrant 15/16. Since i have given a detailed explanation regarding warrant 15 i will not talk about it here...it can go up . it can even go down to 10 cents. I am not a fortune teller neither nimal perera is my brother in law.
so will not discuss a single thing regarding what is good to buy. not even in the semb family. People who have the holding power will reap the benefits. but wont to emphasize on one thing.

warrant 16 holders...... you all are keeping a time bomb with you. I would love to see a bullish trend of the semb family since i hold a considerable amount. but as you noticed the semb family was bit stagnant for the last week and if the trend seems to be the same near the conversion date warrant 16 holders will face a time bomb blast..
non voting trading at 90 cents and according to some analysts it should go up since the warrant is trading at 40 cents/50 cents. but i bet you it might be at the 80 cents/90 cents level even after the conversion. since in the non voting class number of shares is very high. so once the conversion happens their will be no chance for it to see the desired rise. so to any one who has a common sense if you are not willing to convert and stay in the long run SELL your warrant 16 now and do whatever you want. even doing nothing at all by selling now at whatever the price will give you a sure profit. I thought of putting this posts due to the questions asked by you all. Hope you got my view. Traders you are always welcome to play. But don't burn your hands.

coz THIS IS A TIME BOMB.
cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry cherry


"Den Kanna Kiyanawa-Den Bonna Kiyanawa"
Kannai-Bonnai SEMB

4Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:00 pm

sawdanjema


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@smallville wrote:I was thinking what the hell wrong with SEMB.16 as its not moving much and when the X is @ .80 - .90, this is not attractive at all with the additional amount to be paid for conversion..

Thanks for the detailed post..
will the x reach 1.20-1.30 before conversion.

5Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:08 pm

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@smallville- your welcome brother. yes bro. the good thing about the warrant 16 is when the semb family picks up this share will give the highest returns due to the pricing nature. lowest price share in the entire market. at 40 cents 10 cents increments means 25% and at 30 cents , 10 cents increment means 33%. here is the top 20 shareholders list.

SMB LEASING PLC
Top Twenty Major Shareholders - Non Voting Warrants
Name Shareholding
1 Seylan Bank Plc -A/C No. 03 36,326,166
2Mr. R Gautam 17,297,080
3Mr. R Ganeshan 11,300,000
4Mr. SBM Padmasiri 10,000,000
5 Waldock Macknzie Ltd/ Mr. SA Gulamhusein 7,000,000
6Mr. TGW Mudiyanse 5,873,800
7Mr. EMP Ambanpola 5,500,000
8Mr. LD Wicramasinghe 5,000,000
9Mrs. HN Padmsiri 5,000,000
10Miss. NWABSMM Dayarathna 5,000,000
11 The Bishop of Galle 4,600,000
12Mr. RSP Hewage 4,383,700
13Mr. JJ Ravindra 4,141,000
14Mrs. HMT Uththara 4,005,700
15 Dr. RDK Arachchi 4,000,000
16 Extreme Innovations (Pvt) Ltd 4,000,000
17Mr. K Rajakanthan 3,600,000
18 Dr. D Rajakanthan 3,500,000
19Mr. SE Dias 3,145,300
20Mr. MLA Benedict 3,026,800
Total 146,699,546

The interesting fact if you analyze the semb family would be that all other 3 shares Doctor has substantial amount of shares but has none with respect to the warrant 16. Just because doctor bought shares it doesn't mean that its good. just an observation. but if you analyze the shareholders even these people are not crazy idiots. mr.gautam and seylan bank of course would be knowing that by December they need to convert. 99% of these big shots were their with the company even before the warrants were issued and to most of them the costs for the warrants is zero. so if they really want they can dispose their entire stake even at 40 cents/30 cents/20 cents or at minimum 10 cents they will have a massive profit. I mean just imagine seylan bank selling their entire warrant 16 at 10 cents(the lowest possible rate- which will not happen because their will be lot of buyers at higher prices). shall we calculate their profits.

36,326,166*10 cents=3,632,617 rupees. and a saving of
36,326,166*80 cents=29,089,328 rupees as the opportunity cost. if they keep without selling they would incur additional 29 million rupees and get 36 million shares of non voting shares and as at today will incur a unrealized profit of 3.6 million.((.8-.9=.1)*36=3.6). so if they do not sell net outflow is 29-3.6= 25.4 million.if they sell the net inflow is at present rate 36*.4+opportunity from the cash inflow = 9 million+opportunity of saving 29 million.
I just had only a one view of the scenario and all of your ideas are welcome to a more intellectual discussion. also we assumed that in seylan bank case it incur a unrealized loss on 3.6 million because they got the warrant s for free. imagine a guy buying the warrant for 40 cents. if you do the same calculation rather than it been a 10 cents unrealized gain it would be a (.4+.8-.9=.3) 30 cents unrealized loss from each share. so specific adjustment should be made according to different position.
I may be wrong and i am willing to learn from any one because the more we know the better our chances of winning.
so buying this at 30 and selling for 40 cents is a traders choice and i do not see any wrong in that. but the problem is i see every day people buy even at 50 cents and i do not understand. i think have lot more to learn in this market.

@market research- hehe nice one...very true...i told what i feel brother.. i hope you got it.

@sawdanjema- yes x will increase definitely till the conversion takes place since the price gap is crazy. but as soon as the conversion takes place this will go down and will stabilize slightly bit higher to the present state. due to the large number of shares i highly doubt whether it will stabilize at 1.3. all the very best



Last edited by cse.profit on Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:16 pm; edited 1 time in total

6Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:24 pm

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@sapumal- brother i hold more than few millions in warrant 15 . do you think that i would love to get this that down. no i told that just for the sake of focusing on the topic. because brother otherwise some would think that i am promoting the warrant 15. that is why i did not say about it and say it might fall to that levels. I t will never ever happen. I hope you got what i trying to say...100000% agree on your statement and i really wanted to tell those stuff but did not because if i did some would have think that i tried to promote warrant 15. the main objective of this post was to give a insight about the warrant 16. I think you have taken away the post. any way i am with you on that logic brother.happy trading

@marusira- hehe no worries brother....boss i will reply to you within today k....doing some work.



Last edited by cse.profit on Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:31 pm; edited 2 times in total

7Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:28 pm

marusira


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks a lot SEMB Prof Cse.profit .sorry friend I haven't got +rep to give you.

8Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:23 pm

RIO

RIO
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
CSE.Profit,

Good work...but you will receive more stones than flowers for the truth you speak of...!

9Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:06 pm

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
hahaha well said rio.....now i am trained to expect them since got more than 45 negative reps for lengthy analysis i carried out..hehehe...by the way just now watched rio with my family and i remembered your name..what a co incidence and I loved the movie.

brother when the non voting trading at 80 cents the intrinsic value of the warrant is apparently ZEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. any way i see some people getting rid at 40 cents today , i think the above article would have been a eye opener for them. after a long time the buying pressure at 40 cents has come near to a 10 million(normaly 20/30million) which is a good indicator about investor knowledge regarding the warrant 16. please i hope i answered all semb warrant 16 holders questions and if you have any further clarifications to be get done please feel free to ask

10Advice to the warrant 16 holders Empty Re: Advice to the warrant 16 holders Fri Nov 25, 2011 11:06 am

cse.profit

cse.profit
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
This is what i said long time before....... the conversion is one month ahead. coz i think they extended it to 27 th of december if i am not wrong.Just look at the order book. Really sorry for the warrant 16 holders. I am total liquid and will enter in the final week of december. May god bless you all. Budusaranai

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