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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » PLC prospectus out !!!!

PLC prospectus out !!!!

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1PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:26 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://www.cse.lk/270808/pdf/5_10_2011_Peoples_Pros.pdf

2PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:41 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

3PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:43 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

Yes, but I.m sure we'll be able to buy this share below the IPO price once this huge amount flooded the CSE

4PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:01 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@WildBear wrote:
@mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

Yes, but I.m sure we'll be able to buy this share below the IPO price once this huge amount flooded the CSE

Absolutely

5PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:38 pm

ishnet

ishnet
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
NVAP & EPS are attractive.
Earnings per Share (Basic/ Diluted) 47.94
Net Assets Value per Ordinary Share 147.84
But share volume is high

6PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:47 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ishnet wrote:NVAP & EPS are attractive.
Earnings per Share (Basic/ Diluted) 47.94
Net Assets Value per Ordinary Share 147.84
But share volume is high

Dude, I think you got something wrong.....EPS-around 2 and NAV around 6 (before IPO)

7PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:15 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@early wrote:
@mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

So EPS as per your calculation should be 18/11 = 1.64 (I havent seen the prospectus)

If we take the market PER as 15, then 1.64 * 15 = 24.60

So there is a possible upside of at least Rs. 6.60 for this share, which is quite good.




Number of shares as at 31.03.2011 is 50,000,000

Then they go ahead with a new issue of shares on 30.06.2011 with issue of 28,000,000 new shares at Rs. 146/= per share. Purchaser is Peoples Bank.

So total number of shares is 78,000,000

Then Peoples Bank give 3,640,000 of these shares to employees of People's Leasing. (GIVEN AWAY BY PEOPLE'S BANK FOR FREE)

Then they sub divide it 1 to 15.

So Shares owned by PB = 365.40 Million
Shares owned by Employees of Peoples Leasing = 54.60 Million (FREE ZERO CONSIDERATION SHARES IN THE MARKET)

They can't sell it till 30.06.2012. However by early December this thing will get listed. So only 6 months are there and they will start selling...................................@@@@@%%%&&&&???????



As at 30.06.2011 total equity -------------------> 10,057 Million (Group)
New funds from IPO --------------------------> 7,020 Million
Total -------------------------------------------> 17,077 Million

Total number of shares in issue -------------------> 1,560 Million

Net assets per share ---------------------------> 17,070 / 1,560 = Rs. 10.94 (Immediately after IPO)

Looks like another SOFTLOGIC to me. Do you want to purchase this?



8PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:54 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thank u nkalansu, You have given very useful information on Peoples Leasing. Based on the same information one can find that they have isssued some shares to the parent Peoples Bank 0n 30th june 2011 at 146/-. h means even after split(1 in to 15) the cost for Peoples Bank for a share is Rs. 14.60. So issue price of 18/- has no issue then.
May be this is a good share .Anyway this is the No. one leasing companyin the country.

9PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:02 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rajaraam wrote:Thank u nkalansu, You have given very useful information on Peoples Leasing. Based on the same information one can find that they have isssued some shares to the parent Peoples Bank 0n 30th june 2011 at 146/-. h means even after split(1 in to 15) the cost for Peoples Bank for a share is Rs. 14.60. So issue price of 18/- has no issue then.
May be this is a good share .Anyway this is the No. one leasing companyin the country.

Dear Rajaraam,

Small correction 146/15 is Rs. 9.73. Anyway People's Bank can be trusted that they will not sell. They might hold it for a long term so Rs. 9.73 is not an issue. The problem is FREE HOLDERS....... they will start selling.

Please analyse more before purchase this thing.

10PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:04 pm

kasper

kasper
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
As far as EPS is concern considering the 2011 - Q1 report (Pg 163 of 245), last quater PLC has made profit of Rs.1634 millions. (EPS = 1.44 Shocked ). So I think share price is not high as other IPOs we had recently.
Need to study the prospectus more.

11PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:11 pm

ishnet

ishnet
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@WildBear wrote:
@ishnet wrote:NVAP & EPS are attractive.
Earnings per Share (Basic/ Diluted) 47.94
Net Assets Value per Ordinary Share 147.84
But share volume is high

Dude, I think you got something wrong.....EPS-around 2 and NAV around 6 (before IPO)
WildBear,yes,I got some wrong point in prospect(on page 138 no 14)
Thank for your correction.

12PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:28 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@nkalansu wrote:
@early wrote:
@mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

So EPS as per your calculation should be 18/11 = 1.64 (I havent seen the prospectus)

If we take the market PER as 15, then 1.64 * 15 = 24.60

So there is a possible upside of at least Rs. 6.60 for this share, which is quite good.




Number of shares as at 31.03.2011 is 50,000,000

Then they go ahead with a new issue of shares on 30.06.2011 with issue of 28,000,000 new shares at Rs. 146/= per share. Purchaser is Peoples Bank.

So total number of shares is 78,000,000

Then Peoples Bank give 3,640,000 of these shares to employees of People's Leasing. (GIVEN AWAY BY PEOPLE'S BANK FOR FREE)

Then they sub divide it 1 to 15.

So Shares owned by PB = 365.40 Million
Shares owned by Employees of Peoples Leasing = 54.60 Million (FREE ZERO CONSIDERATION SHARES IN THE MARKET)

They can't sell it till 30.06.2012. However by early December this thing will get listed. So only 6 months are there and they will start selling...................................@@@@@%%%&&&&???????



As at 30.06.2011 total equity -------------------> 10,057 Million (Group)
New funds from IPO --------------------------> 7,020 Million
Total -------------------------------------------> 17,077 Million

Total number of shares in issue -------------------> 1,560 Million

Net assets per share ---------------------------> 17,070 / 1,560 = Rs. 10.94 (Immediately after IPO)

Looks like another SOFTLOGIC to me. Do you want to purchase this?





Earnings based valuation
----------------------------

Performance for 3 months up to 30.06.2011

Profit attributable to equity holders----------------------------> Rs. 1,727.42 Million (Group)
Number of shares in issue -------------------------------------> 1,560 Million

EPS ---------------------------------------------------------> 1,727.42/1,560 = Rs. 1.10 per share

So if we assume this rate of profit generation will continue for the next 3 quarters as well. So

EPS for the full year -------------------------------> 1.10 *4 = 4.40

MPS = PER * EPS

Say a proxy PE of 10 if we assume (more accurate if you can take the sector PE for finance sector)

Price = 4.40 * 10 = Rs. 44

I don't know it's up to you..................................





13PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:39 pm

kasper

kasper
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@nkalansu wrote:
@nkalansu wrote:
@early wrote:
@mono wrote:Not bad, my calculation puts their PE at slightly below 11

So EPS as per your calculation should be 18/11 = 1.64 (I havent seen the prospectus)

If we take the market PER as 15, then 1.64 * 15 = 24.60

So there is a possible upside of at least Rs. 6.60 for this share, which is quite good.




Number of shares as at 31.03.2011 is 50,000,000

Then they go ahead with a new issue of shares on 30.06.2011 with issue of 28,000,000 new shares at Rs. 146/= per share. Purchaser is Peoples Bank.

So total number of shares is 78,000,000

Then Peoples Bank give 3,640,000 of these shares to employees of People's Leasing. (GIVEN AWAY BY PEOPLE'S BANK FOR FREE)

Then they sub divide it 1 to 15.

So Shares owned by PB = 365.40 Million
Shares owned by Employees of Peoples Leasing = 54.60 Million (FREE ZERO CONSIDERATION SHARES IN THE MARKET)

They can't sell it till 30.06.2012. However by early December this thing will get listed. So only 6 months are there and they will start selling...................................@@@@@%%%&&&&???????



As at 30.06.2011 total equity -------------------> 10,057 Million (Group)
New funds from IPO --------------------------> 7,020 Million
Total -------------------------------------------> 17,077 Million

Total number of shares in issue -------------------> 1,560 Million

Net assets per share ---------------------------> 17,070 / 1,560 = Rs. 10.94 (Immediately after IPO)

Looks like another SOFTLOGIC to me. Do you want to purchase this?





Earnings based valuation
----------------------------

Performance for 3 months up to 30.06.2011

Profit attributable to equity holders----------------------------> Rs. 1,727.42 Million (Group)
Number of shares in issue -------------------------------------> 1,560 Million

EPS ---------------------------------------------------------> 1,727.42/1,560 = Rs. 1.10 per share

So if we assume this rate of profit generation will continue for the next 3 quarters as well. So

EPS for the full year -------------------------------> 1.10 *4 = 4.40

MPS = PER * EPS

Say a proxy PE of 10 if we assume (more accurate if you can take the sector PE for finance sector)

Price = 4.40 * 10 = Rs. 44

I don't know it's up to you..................................






There rate of growth is also unbelievable. cyclops
_____________________
Knowledge Is Power

14PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:51 pm

dineshfernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Guys, do not sell your valuable shares and buy this. We have learned enough lessons again and again.

This is a huge issue (7BN). This is roughly 4 days turnover of CSE.
There will be definitely huge selling pressure on the first day. You will certainly be able to buy this much cheaper due to the selling pressure. Therefore, don't rush. I will not subscribe for this.

This is my personal opinion only and not a recommendation.

15PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Thu Oct 06, 2011 12:46 am

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
As per Nkalansu analysis PE and NAVPS based valuations of PLC are attractive compared to current sector ratios.However I have following concerns on short-term post IPO price.


  1. Since the issue is large and bad taste in the mouths of retailers due to recent IPOs, it is likely that institutional investors may get large allocation. Thus, would there be enough buyers in the secondary market?

  2. Further, note that People's Bank can't sell from newly issued shares, but is there any restriction that they can't sell from previously acquired shares (shares acquired 1 years before the listing)? They can keep 51% controlling ownership still selling 336 million shares from previously acquired. In other words, SEC regulations on private placements do not literally apply to People's Bank here?

  3. As pointed out by others here, employees got free shares would most likely dump by July 1, 2012.

16PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Thu Oct 06, 2011 6:41 am

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Dear Rajaraam,

Small correction 146/15 is Rs. 9.73. Anyway People's Bank can be trusted that they will not sell. They might hold it for a long term so Rs. 9.73 is not an issue. The problem is FREE HOLDERS....... they will start selling.

Please analyse more before purchase this thing. .
nkalansu

Thank you nkalansu for correction. Sorry for my mistake. Anyway it is interesting to discuss on this IPO.Hovever it is not clear to me How much would be the annual EPS based on present performance.







17PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:51 am

hilux


Stock Trader
for 20011 the total lib = 47B ..Is this too much considering the profits for 2011 is only 2.6 B?

18PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Thu Oct 06, 2011 9:55 am

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rajaraam wrote: Anyway People's Bank can be trusted that they will not sell.
People's Bank should do a public announcement that they will not sell-out part of their stake immediately after IPO (with specific dates). Otherwise there is a risk of selling out. Note that as I explained in the previous post, SEC's lock-in rule literally is not applicable for Peoples Bank in this IPO.

19PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty Re: PLC prospectus out !!!! Thu Oct 06, 2011 10:00 am

chucks


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Shocked hmmmm!
need to study more study

20PLC prospectus out !!!! Empty PEOPLES LEASING ipo Thu Oct 06, 2011 12:02 pm

Tradespot

Tradespot
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
guys what do ul think about this.. according to my knowledge the financials look ok .. but the number of shares.. isn't it too many .. Need feedback

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