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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » People's Leasing: A miracle if they get it fully subscribed on Day 1

People's Leasing: A miracle if they get it fully subscribed on Day 1

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smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@yellow knife wrote:Dear Friends

PLC is the biggest leasing company. Its performance is better than many commercial banks..I leave it you to make a comparision with other banks and find the truth...Any way as retail investor (or anyone) has no interest in selling at a loss, how can the price come down on the first day..Further many customers of PLC have opened CDS accounts.. They are not day traders..Even they fall into retail category they are long term investors who will not monitor day to day up and down in the market...

Guys the first prediction of yours is already gone...the miracle has taken place...Its fully subscribed...How about your second prediction...The price will come down in the first day...The second prediction will also fade away ....if no one is willing to sell at a loss...Just two more days....

Good Luck

So as any other IPO, this has also over subscribed.. Have u heard of any IPO in 2011 which has not oversubscribed? Whatever said and done, how much we educate ppl, they dont listen.. They believe IPOs are the easiest way to find some quick cash Wink

How can u be sure there are no day traders among new comers? Have u interviewed them? New ppl are more furious than seasoned traders/investors.. Their goal is quick money.. They've been told at least and rose gardens were shown to them by others ;( hikzzz..

Price may or may not come down the first day, sometimes due to popularity it may start 19 or 20, then u'd be lucky.. But luck is something u need when u dont have ability to figure out things..

No one is willing to sell at a loss.. agreed.. buy what if no one is interested to buy at a premium???? to whom ur gonna sell?

mark


Expert
Expert
@yellow knife wrote:
if no one is willing to sell at a loss...Just two more days....

Good Luck

lolz,you better understand the meanings of FEAR and GREED which controls the investors mind.. Smile

yellow knife


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If You still Hold East after buying at 44..
If you hold Colombo Pharmacy bought at 2500
If you hold Greg bought at +++
If you hold Colombo Land bought at ***
If you hold HVA bought at +++


Why do you want to sell PLC at a loss...


Guys its time to think logically...If you dare to grab the good opportunities when they arise you may get real gains....Learn Patience to fight Greed and Fear....Both these sentiments are created inside human mind some others than for real reasons...

tj


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@ yelow knife

We have still time to invest in this. Why dont you tell some facts that show the share is worth 18/-.
You have said PLC is the largest leasing company-Agreed
You also say Its performance is better than many commercial banks- On what basis are you saying this? As i said earlier if you leave out the reversal of general provison their june quarter profit is just 122Mn.
According to my calculation on the offer price there is a premium of 10Bn.(June net assets+ IPO proceeds minus 28Bn) Can u justify that?
Also as smallville has pointed out nobody wants to sell at a loss. Due you think all those who sold softlogic sold it below issue price because they were happy with it?
Also the need to open a CDS account is mandatory now. So whether you want to hold it for a day or 10yrs still you have to open a CDS account.

As you say it may hv already been oversubscribed and also it may trade @ 25. Who knows stranger things have happened at CSE? But for me to invest i need to justify the issue price of 18. Can you justify 18/-?
THX
tj

Thx
tj

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
[quote="yellow knife"]If You still Hold East after buying at 44..
If you hold Colombo Pharmacy bought at 2500
If you hold Greg bought at +++
If you hold Colombo Land bought at ***
If you hold HVA bought at +++


Why do you want to sell PLC at a loss...

quote]
If anybody buys these shares at those prices, then he should better take some advice from a more knowledgeable person.. cuz it shows his foolishness..
But.. there's always a greater fool than the person who bought these at top Twisted Evil so he has to be lucky enuf to find that kinda rabbit to dispose these at a break even at least Wink

I didnt wanna mention what happened to the SHL shareholders, even a fairly good copmany like TJL failed to attract (may be due to bad timing)

Their results indicates a one off gain, so the results looks promising, when u take that off this doesnt valued at 18, may be 12-14 I can say ok..
But going for a large IPO like this, we have to evaluate the risk of holding this for sometime again.. And whats de purpose of buying something at 18 if u can buy it 15 Wink

Anyways, u seem to be over sighted on this IPO and has not seen the real picture.. We cant show it to u either... For the sake of poor investors, I wish this IPO brings at least 1-2 rupee profit on 1st day.

yellow knife


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear Friends

I respect your views..PLC was a company fully owned by Peoples Bank..Indirectly they have widest market coverage. Though there are 100+ Leasing and Registered Finance companies, they are the largest in turnover , profitability and assest base...compare their profit with other banks...if u think about the one off reversal as the only reason behind the massive profit, consider the past trend of profitability and lease granting...

When you analyze banks and finance houses u use CAMEL. that's Capital , Asset, quality of Management, Earnings and Liabilities...out of these only quality of Management is the only qualitative factor and at the same time only factor that distinguish ability to grow and inability. ...When all other quantitative factors are attractive, if they've proved their quality of Management pls consider that....When HJ purchase a company next is a positive upward trend ..its due to Management....

PLC has proved its quality of Management during the economic cirsis in 2008. They not only survived but also managed the failed finance institutes..further they aquired and turned SMLL upward..

What happen on the first day depend not only on the performance of the company but also on the trend (up or downward ) of the overall market...thats what went wrong with Textured Jersey...I bought at IPO and still collect that..Thats dollar cost averaging...

Even I am not 100% sure my feeling is the PLC IPO will come to trading on a greener environment...

They've done many miracles..being a state backed, reaching this far is worth noting...

However guys I leave it to u the evaluation of Financials, and that is done by many broker firms on behalf of us...Read them...

Let your own instinct work for u

GOOD LUCK

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Broker firms have never said "Dont BUY" to any of the IPOs since 2010 (as my memory serves) Wink
All said PCH, TJL, SHL, CIFL, etc.. are buys.. But we know which ones prosper and which ones failed...

So I've a little issue buying the facts on these research reports..

Anyways its up to the investors to go for a wise decision...

yoyo

yoyo
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Its too much share quantity, which would increase the selling pressure on first day, BTW good for long term. But why do we need to pay 18 and take a risk when we can buy it later for 15 ?

madurajithp


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@madurajithp wrote:This will definitely over subscribe on first day. But it doesn't mean this should be a successful IPO in secondary market in first few days. But fir sure this IPO is worth for "investors" and truly long term players.


As i said,


SSP Corporate Services (Pvt.) Ltd, Registrars to the above Offer, has informed the CSE that the above IPO has been oversubscribed. SSP Corporate Services (Pvt.) Ltd has also informed the CSE that the issue would be closed at 4.30 p.m. today (03rd November 2011). The announcement will be published on the CSE website (www.cse.lk) shortly.

enthush


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@LongTerm wrote:Anyone have confidence in Capital Alliance and NDB Investment Bank in getting the issue fully subscribed???

I have few friends who work at both places, but are not reveling anything ...

Anyone heard anything?? Let's be honest, the retailers coming in at the last moment are not going to make a difference on a 7 Bn IPO!!!

The reson why they were not revealing it was simple...they know how to get it subscribed like how it happened it yday dude,,,naduth hamuduruwange baduth hamuduruwange.. if u get what i mean.!

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