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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » market slump good or bad?

market slump good or bad?

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1market slump good or bad? Empty market slump good or bad? Mon Oct 31, 2011 9:06 pm

hirankb

hirankb
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
have you given some thought to the following ?

market is going down because selling is on lowering prices....

But dont forget some body is buying it too......

normally all the buyers (may be fewer) cannot be fools. It is a known fact that when 90% of people sell 10% of people buy..... and at the end of the day..... the wealth is also roughly distributed in the 9/10 ration. that is 90 % of the profits are made by 10% of the investors....this is not a coincidant . these are historically proven statistics all over the world whith minor variations.

so now do you get the picture.... Actualy SEC has done a favor to the sofisticated investor who always keeps some funds ready for this type of situations.and they will make a killing later HONOURABLY.

the average investor ( that is almost 90% of the retail and average investing community judging by the posts in these forums) do nothing but rumor monggering, complaining and asking silly questions.Why I say silly is the questions thay asks is like a driver of a car asking what does a brake paddle do or what is that blinking arrow in the dashboard tell -a technical indicator) .
If you do not have the basic financial intellligence for gods sake learn some basics and follow a plan. it is the silly investors that has brought this situation on to themselves.

if you keep your house doors open and unattended and robbery occurs.... why go to the police and complain and amake a big issue.

Guard your fu**ing doors when you have valuables at home. ( Door- buy/sell plan, police-SEC , house-your PF).

. I saw a nice post in this forum " if you fell in the well ..the way out is only through the mouth of the well" the real Sinhala version comes out more juicy.
I may add this too " if you fall .. dont blame the slipery floor... stop. turn and look carefully where you slipped"

Again , the smart thing to do now is Dolar cost averaging every day( % of full DCA according to previous days drop untill the fall is arrested and reversal happens on big volumes with CMF >0 , RSI>50 ,MACD>0 and signal cross over from below,) . Analyis seperate counters seperately.

I can almost guarentee if you follow simple logic you can make at least 20 % by march 2012.

WHEN THIS MESS IS OVER... EVERYBODY,PLEASE GO BY FUNDERMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND THERE WILL BE NO ROOM FOR CROOKED DEALS. HNWI will try few times to Pump but when the dumping happens while pumping, it is the pumpers energy that is wasted.... soon there will be no pumpers.Just like pumping air to a tyre with a puncture.


believe me Stock market is not rocket science.... it is not even science... it is sociology and statistics...not even mathematics.... just arithmatic.... it is so simple that is why we complicate it and make a mess out of it.. remember That when all probable solutions have failled , how ever improbable the remaining solution has to be the correct one.

BUY THE FUNDERMENTALLY STRONG STOCKS AND BE PATIENT... IF NOT FOR CAPITAL GAINS YOU COULD EXPECT BETTER DIVIDENDS TO COMPENSATE BECAUSE THE GOOD STOCKS WILL RETURN A HIGHRER EPS.WHEN THE MARKET PRICE IS LOW THE PER WILL BE VERY ATTRACTIVE TO F/BUYERS that will be a ethical cause for the price of a share to go up.

for once in your investing life please follow time honoured logic. according to EMH ( efficient market hypothisis) the market discounts every thing. So no use of gossiping . Go with the trend ,The market is going to do what it is going to do irrespective of what you want it to do..

STOP LISTENING TO GOSSIP AND READING RUMORS. LOOK AT ONLY CHARTS , INDICATORS AND ANNUAL REPORTS.

Also do not forget the HNWI are only High Net worth only if the price is high.wherther they like the SEC DG or not I am sure they love their money. So dont worry. When the retail investors open their eyes and see the gem hitting there foot. the HNWI will see what they are loosing and automatically enter . I am sure thay love their money more than they hate the SEC.

The SEC itself is nobody's. SEC as an entity has not purchased any shares. So they are not bothered about price going up or down. ( I am almost certain the The SEC big lady doesnot own a single share of any company).

Suppose you have 1000 shares bought at 10 = 1000 x 10 = 10,000/=
HNWI has , say 1,000,000 @ 10 = 1000000 x 10 = 10,000,000/=

price falls to 4/= ( market crash) = you loose 6000/=
= HNWI losses 6,000,000/=

You DCA and your average cost falls to = 10,000 x 2/(1000+(10,000/4)=20,000/3500=5.7
you need only 10,000 . the HNWI needs 10Mil. SO IT IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR A HNWI TO STOMACHE a market crash. Loss in Money terms is differant though the % loss is the same.

** You hear-you forget, You see-you remember,You do-You UNDERSTAND........**

2market slump good or bad? Empty Re: market slump good or bad? Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:13 pm

echo28


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Perfect. The poor man who bought the share on another man's cash is loosing. The advice at the forum was dont buy shares without cash. But 90% of us small time traders or investors (May be you cannot call investors) since they dont trade have purchased it on Credit. Its like the cars running on the road.

So they have to sell their stocks even if they hv facility since their PV is dropping daily.

I am in the field of IT. the current HDD (Hard Disk price has gone up by 80% had i invested my returns would hv been much better.

3market slump good or bad? Empty Re: market slump good or bad? Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:31 pm

prasadrmb

prasadrmb
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
great article.

4market slump good or bad? Empty Re: market slump good or bad? Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:18 am

ninja


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
tomorrow, the market should go up at least by 1% in appreciation of this article. Smile

5market slump good or bad? Empty Re: market slump good or bad? Tue Nov 01, 2011 1:24 am

hirankb

hirankb
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Depending on how many people reads it... I have noticed that 'Sriranga " comes up with solid ideas if only he takes examples from CSE for his theories..
I hope enough "investors" take note and acts accordingly, within a week we can see results.

I strongly believe tomorrow would see a geen day for combx, hnbx,probably CICx, DFCC is so attractive I need to figure out what is the blemish. the fundermentalsa are excellant except marginal drop in growth . I have afeeling DFCC vardhana is having a drag. must check DFCCV website tomorrow.

would appreciate some comments from a fellow investor. need not reinvent the wheel.

6market slump good or bad? Empty Re: market slump good or bad? Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:18 pm

ssb

ssb
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
nice post ,hope for better future and hold my place on ,and average alot than going for new shares
is it a bad move ????

7market slump good or bad? Empty Re: market slump good or bad? Tue Nov 01, 2011 5:38 pm

ssuni

ssuni
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
ur above post is great! Exclamation BUT NOT THE BELOW POST! Evil or Very Mad
@hirankb wrote: I strongly believe tomorrow would see a geen day for combx, hnbx,probably CICx, DFCC is so attractive

8market slump good or bad? Empty Re: market slump good or bad? Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:17 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
good one mate Smile lower PE cannot guarantee a slide of the share price,bcoz there is counters with investor favorite and which are not favorite,see DIMO,CFVF as an examples,they have lower PE,but ppl selling...
you may loose heavily in fundamentals,and also you may earn heavily in crap shares even,but finally you are safe with fundamentals if you are a long term guy,but i would rather doing PF rotation and upholding of shares in current market conditions,so i get the chance to sell and buy back,booking profits,keep in cash,etc..........keep in cash is always safe Smile

9market slump good or bad? Empty Re: market slump good or bad? Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:12 am

hirankb

hirankb
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
This is the differance between trading and investing. do not forget the cost of transactions of too many trades. actually people have lost more money on brokarage fees than price. falling price means only an unrealized loss . where as broker fees are gone from the top every time you trade( nearly 2.5%).If the brokerage is based of profit it is a differant matter. trading and making huge profits are only possible with manipulation and insider trading , hence the traders love for the manipulator.

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