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NTB as below is showing clear quarter to quarter growth. NTB also has major holding by JKH ( 20%) and CFIN (9.32%). Being in the influence of JKH , NTB could be potential target for future high net worths.
Dec ??
Sept 1.71
June 1.34
March 1.23
NTB should do well Dec quarter and especially the budget benefits should further kick in March quarter.
We saw NTB.N shoot to Rs 115, 3 months ago and now is at Rs 85. We also saw in a recent irregular event NTB.N shot up to Rs 99 in a hurry and came down within few minutes. It means there is considerable interest in the share but buyer do not want to commit when it remains stagnant.
Going with last 2 quarters EPS annualize ( indicative of a the future performance) the share can be valued
fairly valued at 3.05*2*15= Rs 92
However with the clear growth with a higher EPS expected in Dec quarter and from the above facts it might be no surprise if NTB runs to Rs 110-120 in a rally again ( if it happens). We have seen this happen in the current market with other shares with expected future growth. ( TAFL, GRAN, ODEL etc).
There are 209 Mil Share of NTB in the market. 77.84% share holding lies with the top 20 share holders. Only 22% odd remains with smaller holders.
Note on the NTB Warrrants:
NTB warrants can bring higher gain than NTB is a rally.
When NTB went to Rs 115 some months ago NTB.W reached around Rs 90 at that time ( as warrant usually do it overshoots a little in a rally).
But note the below discussion as warrant are higher risk higher gain category.
Concerns with EPS dilution due to warrants :
Compared 209 Mil NTB.N , NTB.W are around 20 Mil shares only. Thats only about 10%. With warrant conversion rate added ( Rs 35) we cannot expect a massive dilution to the share EPS compared to many other companies with higher warrant issues. So I feel the Warrant issue should not drag down NTB in the medium to longer term . Please compare with other companies to see what I mean. The new fad is to issue 1:1 warrants to share atelast. But NTB is only 1:10 which is not bad.
With a finance bank rally ( if it happens) NTB warrants are bound to go up with NTB.N. But we still did not see a major bank rally. Warrant can bring you higher gain than the share if it happens.
Having said that , I believe the warrant conversion to happen sometime end of February. So before then if bank rally happens it will also go up. If a bank rally does not happen there is a small risk involved as warrants will trade with a small premium as in most cases.
By the way I hold NTB.N & NTB.W. I wanted to give fair picture only to benefit the community and am not recommending a Buy ,Sell or Hold This is for analysis only.
Dec ??
Sept 1.71
June 1.34
March 1.23
NTB should do well Dec quarter and especially the budget benefits should further kick in March quarter.
We saw NTB.N shoot to Rs 115, 3 months ago and now is at Rs 85. We also saw in a recent irregular event NTB.N shot up to Rs 99 in a hurry and came down within few minutes. It means there is considerable interest in the share but buyer do not want to commit when it remains stagnant.
Going with last 2 quarters EPS annualize ( indicative of a the future performance) the share can be valued
fairly valued at 3.05*2*15= Rs 92
However with the clear growth with a higher EPS expected in Dec quarter and from the above facts it might be no surprise if NTB runs to Rs 110-120 in a rally again ( if it happens). We have seen this happen in the current market with other shares with expected future growth. ( TAFL, GRAN, ODEL etc).
There are 209 Mil Share of NTB in the market. 77.84% share holding lies with the top 20 share holders. Only 22% odd remains with smaller holders.
Note on the NTB Warrrants:
NTB warrants can bring higher gain than NTB is a rally.
When NTB went to Rs 115 some months ago NTB.W reached around Rs 90 at that time ( as warrant usually do it overshoots a little in a rally).
But note the below discussion as warrant are higher risk higher gain category.
Concerns with EPS dilution due to warrants :
Compared 209 Mil NTB.N , NTB.W are around 20 Mil shares only. Thats only about 10%. With warrant conversion rate added ( Rs 35) we cannot expect a massive dilution to the share EPS compared to many other companies with higher warrant issues. So I feel the Warrant issue should not drag down NTB in the medium to longer term . Please compare with other companies to see what I mean. The new fad is to issue 1:1 warrants to share atelast. But NTB is only 1:10 which is not bad.
With a finance bank rally ( if it happens) NTB warrants are bound to go up with NTB.N. But we still did not see a major bank rally. Warrant can bring you higher gain than the share if it happens.
Having said that , I believe the warrant conversion to happen sometime end of February. So before then if bank rally happens it will also go up. If a bank rally does not happen there is a small risk involved as warrants will trade with a small premium as in most cases.
By the way I hold NTB.N & NTB.W. I wanted to give fair picture only to benefit the community and am not recommending a Buy ,Sell or Hold This is for analysis only.
Last edited by slstock on Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:10 am; edited 1 time in total
