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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » NTB Analysis : keep an eye open

NTB Analysis : keep an eye open

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1NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:42 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
NTB as below is showing clear quarter to quarter growth. NTB also has major holding by JKH ( 20%) and CFIN (9.32%). Being in the influence of JKH , NTB could be potential target for future high net worths.

Dec ??
Sept 1.71
June 1.34
March 1.23

NTB should do well Dec quarter and especially the budget benefits should further kick in March quarter.

We saw NTB.N shoot to Rs 115, 3 months ago and now is at Rs 85. We also saw in a recent irregular event NTB.N shot up to Rs 99 in a hurry and came down within few minutes. It means there is considerable interest in the share but buyer do not want to commit when it remains stagnant.

Going with last 2 quarters EPS annualize ( indicative of a the future performance) the share can be valued
fairly valued at 3.05*2*15= Rs 92

However with the clear growth with a higher EPS expected in Dec quarter and from the above facts it might be no surprise if NTB runs to Rs 110-120 in a rally again ( if it happens). We have seen this happen in the current market with other shares with expected future growth. ( TAFL, GRAN, ODEL etc).

There are 209 Mil Share of NTB in the market. 77.84% share holding lies with the top 20 share holders. Only 22% odd remains with smaller holders.


Note on the NTB Warrrants:

NTB warrants can bring higher gain than NTB is a rally.

When NTB went to Rs 115 some months ago NTB.W reached around Rs 90 at that time ( as warrant usually do it overshoots a little in a rally).

But note the below discussion as warrant are higher risk higher gain category.


Concerns with EPS dilution due to warrants :

Compared 209 Mil NTB.N , NTB.W are around 20 Mil shares only. Thats only about 10%. With warrant conversion rate added ( Rs 35) we cannot expect a massive dilution to the share EPS compared to many other companies with higher warrant issues. So I feel the Warrant issue should not drag down NTB in the medium to longer term . Please compare with other companies to see what I mean. The new fad is to issue 1:1 warrants to share atelast. But NTB is only 1:10 which is not bad.


With a finance bank rally ( if it happens) NTB warrants are bound to go up with NTB.N. But we still did not see a major bank rally. Warrant can bring you higher gain than the share if it happens.

Having said that , I believe the warrant conversion to happen sometime end of February. So before then if bank rally happens it will also go up. If a bank rally does not happen there is a small risk involved as warrants will trade with a small premium as in most cases.

By the way I hold NTB.N & NTB.W. I wanted to give fair picture only to benefit the community and am not recommending a Buy ,Sell or Hold This is for analysis only.



Last edited by slstock on Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:10 am; edited 1 time in total

2NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:19 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
NTB is good long term stock.. no worries of it.. .

3NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty NTB N Sun Jan 30, 2011 7:10 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
NTB is one of the best for me too.

I 'wish' it will remain in these levels few weeks more, I am trying hard to find funds to get at least another 5000 shares in February.

With the infusion of warrant conversion money in March and with low dilution as slstock correctly said, it should get into a better position coming years.

NTB warrants are the best managed warrants in recent times , issued not in big quantities, traded around 6 rupees when the N share was around 30s and they appreciated in correct manner to give the early birds good returns.

4NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:03 am

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
good analysis slstock

5NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:07 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks guys for your input.

6NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sun Jan 30, 2011 1:26 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good analysis slstock.

NTB has considerable growth in each quarter and backed by heavy weight JKH and CFIN. Good for medium and long term. Nearly 30% of my portfolio is filled with NTB.

7NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:02 pm

rajithasamaranayake


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
held and held and Held and still going down....

8NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:11 pm

intelstk


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Now it is trading at the price of 9 months lower??? what do you think?? alien

9NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:14 pm

xhora

xhora
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@intelstk wrote:Now it is trading at the price of 9 months lower??? what do you think?? alien

Maybe time to collect Rolling Eyes

10NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:15 pm

investor.sl

investor.sl
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Is Rs. 63-64 attractive to collect some shares? Neutral

11NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:42 pm

san1985

san1985
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@investor.sl wrote:Is Rs. 63-64 attractive to collect some shares? Neutral

Yeah, certainly...Possible to break 75 in the short run... Twisted Evil
(not a buy/sell recommendation)

12NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:44 pm

ABEST


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
yeah,it will break 75.00 to 80.00 level nearly
not recommended to buy sell or hold

13NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:59 am

bePositive

bePositive
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ABEST wrote:yeah,it will break 75.00 to 80.00 level nearly
not recommended to buy sell or hold

will reach 100 within 2 months
not recommended to buy sell or hold

http://www.viabletraffic.com

14NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sat Sep 03, 2011 4:55 am

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes NTB
Banking and Finance ,, time to keep an eye...

15NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sat Sep 03, 2011 7:15 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Why nobody has given a + for the hard work.. ok let me start.. Thanks Slstock.. I think the time has come to look on NTB as a future investment..
Be prepared to sell in a run and collect back too Wink

16NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:04 am

Soundchips


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Keep an eye on NTB and SAMP..

17NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:28 am

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Soundchips wrote:Keep an eye on NTB and SAMP..
Many predict that NTB to go up to and around 100, when a Banking Rally starts soon.
I have NTB as a long term investment and my concern; is will it fall back to present level or at least to 80 level again some time after reaching that predicted level?

18NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Empty Re: NTB Analysis : keep an eye open Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:37 am

MarketW


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
NTB is a perfect stock for me...Why I say this because i have 30000 at 35...and I still didnt sell for 65 because I know this has a value beyound 100.There is high possibility that this will go far than 110....
I am still trying to collect more shares....I am not telling anyone to buy this but better to look into it your self....
Future growth and JKH owner.....There facilitys are good even there customer service is good....
I remember SAMP was like this when it was trading around 64 couple of years ago....I dont wanna tell the amount I have....
All I say is KEEP AN EYE ON NTB>>>
""Food For thought""

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