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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPERT CHRONICLE™ » Who have experience in long term investments?

Who have experience in long term investments?

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ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Is there any of you who have experience in long term investments?

Guys if so please share your experiences. We have heard many success stories, is there some one who had been affected by long term investment?



Last edited by rijayasooriya on Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:57 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : title shortened.)

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Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 1:26 am by mark

wow,great patience you guys had Very Happy
btw im nt a longterm guy and nor short term or mid term,there is no such words to me,i do behave as the system and atmosphere,thats the bestway for me to survive..btw il be quit in near days,bcz i cnt cope with this mkt environmnt and studies at once,specially when mkt dnt make sense to me..

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:31 am by UKboy

@slstock wrote:
One out of several stories,

Bought DFCC for Rs 140 in a right issue. Saw it dip to Rs 50+ early 2008. ( JKH was Rs 60s) Had a near heart attack.
I will need to dig into share bought early 2000s with statistics and I am sure I can better this story many many times over.

Yeah as slstock said there are many stories.
Whoever bought shares prior to 2009 could easily exit the market with hefty gains (almost all the times).
I can remember once "mono" said that we should thank to whoever jumped into the market around 2010. Which is true.
But repeating those stories in such short time ( less than 2 years) will not gonna be easy.

Once I bought DIMO shares for 120 each and soon after I bought the shares it went down below 100 and stagnated for long time. As same as slstock I nearly had a heart attack. But slowly and steadily DIMO share appreciated to around 1400. Still it was heavily undervalued but thought it was the time to sell. So I disposed those shares with more than 1000% gain.

There are many good counters in the market for very reasonable prices.

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 10:57 am by Rajitha

Long term investment is a Short Term investment that failed!

BTW No the market won't go up like after the war! ALL the long term investments people are telling they earned are earned because of the hike after war!

Only way you going to make a good long term gain is if market again falls below ASI 5000 and you buy it then and hold!

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 2:47 pm by Slstock

@Rajitha wrote:Long term investment is a Short Term investment that failed!

BTW No the market won't go up like after the war! ALL the long term investments people are telling they earned are earned because of the hike after war!

Only way you going to make a good long term gain is if market again falls below ASI 5000 and you buy it then and hold!

Rajitha,

With no offence curios to know when you first stared investing at CSE ( just for my understanding)?

As you state you are a short term trader. So I can assume you have not tried long term investments ( holding a good company for 5 years atleast. )?


What about the people who simply do not have the time or opt not trade always? What about the billionaires who got very rich through stock investments. Are you saying their strategies are failed attempts of short term investment and they could have gained more if they invested short term.

Short term strategy and long term strategy is different. We must have had this discussion so many times.


Okay I agree that at CSE after war recovery was an exception.

So lets forget about after war.


Did you see the
1) COMB example
2) Sri Ranga's CIC example

Also , within the last decade, I do recall I bought JKH for around Rs 60+ in 2001 or so. I have not calculated but how many times would it have grown with splits, rights and capital gains , dividens etc ? I did study and knew JKH was solid so I bought and forgot.
It did not fail me. If I spent too much time to identify peaks and bottoms at that time, I would have not got far in my caeerer. So there is opportunity cost there too.



We need to understand and respect different investment strategies . People should do what best works for them.


Slstock

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 2:59 pm by Slstock


Btw I believe a good investor should have a mix of

1) long term
2) mid term
3) short term
share in the portfolio.

Nothing wrong in long term , mid term or short term if you know you targets , what you are buying and period of investment.

Rajitha

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:21 pm by Rajitha

FYI I'm not a trader! But an investor!

These days I hardly have ever looked at CSE at all! In-fact have not done a trade in CSE from over 3 weeks!
As for the questions about my trading past I started investing last year September and 5 years ago was not even in Sri Lanka! But that does not mean I have not done my studies about the past! When I mean short term I don't mean day or 2 but most probably from 1week to about 3 months!

Can you people explain a huge long term gain that does not include the years from 2009 ?? As most people here say they have been on the market for ages so show us great examples? I can bet I can show some companies with few short term ( 1-2 months ) investments that gave way more return!


Also about the examples you said! Those examples sucked hardcore man! Did you check what would have been the fix deposit or treasury bill gain if some one put the money in them during those times? I can remember that those days the Fix deposit and treasury bill gains were over 20% per year! Do the calculations and see what is better!

Rajitha

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:25 pm by Rajitha

Also about your JKH counter ! You had that investment since 2001 right? So up to 2009 before the war ended how much was your capital gain? You said you studied it and it had 8 years to gain? Did you gain more than a fixed deposit or buying a pies of land ?

Slstock

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:33 pm by Slstock

@Rajitha wrote:FYI I'm not a trader! But an investor!

These days I hardly have ever looked at CSE at all! In-fact have not done a trade in CSE from over 3 weeks!
As for the questions about my trading past I started investing last year September and 5 years ago was not even in Sri Lanka! But that does not mean I have not done my studies about the past! When I mean short term I don't mean day or 2 but most probably from 1week to about 3 months!

Can you people explain a huge long term gain that does not include the years from 2009 ?? As most people here say they have been on the market for ages so show us great examples? I can bet I can show some companies with few short term ( 1-2 months ) investments that gave way more return!


Also about the examples you said! Those examples sucked hardcore man! Did you check what would have been the fix deposit or treasury bill gain if some one put the money in them during those times? I can remember that those days the Fix deposit and treasury bill gains were over 20% per year! Do the calculations and see what is better!

The original posters title says "Who have experience in long term investments?" so we were replying our experiences to it.

If that strategy does not work for one, they can opt for another. No complain there.

But just like short term players, day traders are important to stock markets , long term players are also equally important to maintain stability.

Best that we follow our own strategies which work for us and respect others strategies as well.





Slstock

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:43 pm by Slstock

@Rajitha wrote:Also about your JKH counter ! You had that investment since 2001 right? So up to 2009 before the war ended how much was your capital gain? You said you studied it and it had 8 years to gain? Did you gain more than a fixed deposit or buying a pies of land ?


I failed to mention was that I sold PART of it in 2005 0r 2006 for a need with over 3 times profit at least( from memroy). It would have certainly bettered an FD even with 20% per annum compounded. That should itself answer your query I believe.

Btw, when I said long term, I never meant you never sell or hold for ever as it would be silly.

Rajitha

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:51 pm by Rajitha

@slstock wrote:
@Rajitha wrote:Also about your JKH counter ! You had that investment since 2001 right? So up to 2009 before the war ended how much was your capital gain? You said you studied it and it had 8 years to gain? Did you gain more than a fixed deposit or buying a pies of land ?


I failed to mention was that I sold PART of it in 2005 0r 2006 for a need with over 3 times profit at least( from memroy). It would have certainly bettered an FD even with 20% per annum compounded. That should itself answer your query I believe.

Btw, when I said long term, I never meant you never sell or hold for ever as it would be silly.

As I Can see from
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JKH:SL
JKH started year 2007 at Rs 100 and went as low about Rs 35 in year 2009! That is including all the splits and bonus issues included! How ever I can't find older data so I will take your word for it! But still I fail to see how you could have sold with 3x gain looking at those charts!

UKboy

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:28 pm by UKboy

@Rajitha wrote:
Can you people explain a huge long term gain that does not include the years from 2009 ?? As most people here say they have been on the market for ages so show us great examples? I can bet I can show some companies with few short term ( 1-2 months ) investments that gave way more return!

Before 2009.. Touchwood comes to my mind. Twisted Evil It gave good return in short period of time way back in 2006/2007. Yes I agreed overall it was difficult.

Since 2011 its all junks gave good results. Thats the reason why I sold DIMO.
Sold DIMO and bought WAPO.. It was successful though.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t7081-anybody-made-profits-today

Whoever bought these junkies low are winners in 2011. Slowly things are changing.

Slstock

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:44 pm by Slstock

@Rajitha wrote:
@slstock wrote:
@Rajitha wrote:Also about your JKH counter ! You had that investment since 2001 right? So up to 2009 before the war ended how much was your capital gain? You said you studied it and it had 8 years to gain? Did you gain more than a fixed deposit or buying a pies of land ?


I failed to mention was that I sold PART of it in 2005 0r 2006 for a need with over 3 times profit at least( from memroy). It would have certainly bettered an FD even with 20% per annum compounded. That should itself answer your query I believe.

Btw, when I said long term, I never meant you never sell or hold for ever as it would be silly.

As I Can see from
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JKH:SL
JKH started year 2007 at Rs 100 and went as low about Rs 35 in year 2009! That is including all the splits and bonus issues included! How ever I can't find older data so I will take your word for it! But still I fail to see how you could have sold with 3x gain looking at those charts!

"How ever I can't find older data so I will take your word for it!"
" But still I fail to see how you could have sold with 3x gain looking at those charts!"

If you are taking my word then second sentence is a paradox.
Just kidding.


Anyway , don;t rely on bloomsberg for prices. They are not accurate for older values as it accounts recent splits etc to show current price.


On CDAX price of JKH at 02-1-07 was Rs 195. Latter 2006 it should also have been 190s .


(BTW JKH never went to Rs 30s in the recent past. Cheapest I saw was in the rs 50s-60s I think in early 2009.)

sriranga

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 5:40 pm by sriranga

Please find below the JKH Share Price Graph from Jan 2004 to Nov 2011.

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Jkh10

Source: www.slstock.com



Last edited by sriranga on Sun Nov 13, 2011 5:41 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Edited to add the surce)

Slstock

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:05 pm by Slstock

@sriranga wrote:Please find below the JKH Share Price Graph from Jan 2004 to Nov 2011.

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Jkh10

Source: www.slstock.com

Thanks it should clarify further.

Monster

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:23 pm by Monster

My brother has purchased ASHO shares at Rs 60 in 2004. But he has bought only 400 shares and he is still holding it. Look at the share price today. It's trading between Rs 3000/- and Rs 3500/-. Excellent return in 7 to 8 years.

Chabbi

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:27 pm by Chabbi

@Monster wrote:My brother has purchased ASHO shares at Rs 60 in 2004. But he has bought only 400 shares and he is still holding it. Look at the share price today. It's trading between Rs 3000/- and Rs 3500/-. Excellent return in 7 to 8 years.

here ask ur brother to sell those shares for me Razz I will pay each 120/=

200% Gain for him !!!!!! even money can give before transfer !! Razz

(Juss for Joke mate Razz Dnt get anger Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed )

Monster

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:29 pm by Monster

@Chabbi wrote:
@Monster wrote:My brother has purchased ASHO shares at Rs 60 in 2004. But he has bought only 400 shares and he is still holding it. Look at the share price today. It's trading between Rs 3000/- and Rs 3500/-. Excellent return in 7 to 8 years.

here ask ur brother to sell those shares for me Razz I will pay each 120/=

200% Gain for him !!!!!! even money can give before transfer !! Razz

(Juss for Joke mate Razz Dnt get anger Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed )

PM your contact details. I will ask him to contact you as soon as possible. Very Happy

UKboy

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:42 pm by UKboy

@Rajitha wrote: JKH started year 2007 at Rs 100 and went as low about Rs 35 in year 2009! That is including all the splits and bonus issues included!

Shocked scratch

smallville

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 7:25 pm by smallville

Here's something for the children who dont understand the value of long term investments..

I've taken these from Mr. Dilruk's (Richard Peiris Securities) presentations on "Mastering the skills of trading"...
So my utmost gratitude goes to him and the broker company for their hard work..

My intention of publishing some of the pages here are only for members knowledge and not to promote any broker company..

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Jkh-gr10

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Jkh-fr10

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Hnb-fr10

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Guar-f10

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Dfcc-g10

Kumar

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 7:40 pm by Kumar

Why we can't move this to Expert chamber?
Valuable argument is going on no?

avatar

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 7:41 pm by Academic

Loosing commonwealth games may negatively affect JKH and this effect may be strong enough to drag the market to red territory. Just my idea. Don't make your investment decision on this.

avatar

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 7:53 pm by WildBear

@smallville wrote:Here's something for the children who dont understand the value of long term investments..

I've taken these from Mr. Dilruk's (Richard Peiris Securities) presentations on "Mastering the skills of trading"...
So my utmost gratitude goes to him and the broker company for their hard work..

My intention of publishing some of the pages here are only for members knowledge and not to promote any broker company..

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Jkh-gr10

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Jkh-fr10

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Hnb-fr10

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Guar-f10

Who have experience in long term investments? - Page 2 Dfcc-g10

This is very illustrative, especially those brats who think "Long term investments are mistakes of Short term investments". Those who can't think any thing beyond plantations, we can't help Twisted Evil

avatar

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:06 pm by WildBear

Not only above individual experience, If we look at how some institutions gain massively from investment in equity, we'll be able to see the clear story

Few examples-
-RICH invested in AAIC at Rs.20 and recently disposed at 120 within 6-7 years.
-KDDP invested in REEF when it was 1-2 rupees(before consolidation, 1/- share) and we know at which price he sold.
-Lanka-Bangla investment by SAMP- Their initial investment was only 60 million rupees, and we saw it consistently strengthened SAMP balance sheet in past couple of years and will be in future.

But some of us waiting till a so called "Rally" make them millionaires in overnight

Dr.Bubble

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:10 pm by Dr.Bubble

@Kumar wrote:Why we can't move this to Expert chamber?
Valuable argument is going on no?

didn't quibi offered you the moderatorship (@moderators topic implies).. Very Happy

Rajitha

Post Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:19 pm by Rajitha

Values I posted are accounting for splits I mentioned and as it should be! That gives a right picture of price ! IF not some one might say I bought Rich at rs 120 and now its rs 10 I lost billions!

Also as I have said all of you again forgot the 2009 RULE! Show me gains of long term investments before 2009! I will show you an example of investing outside stock exchange!
My father bought a land in kandy in year 1999 for 120000! by year 2009 the estimated and people calling and asking price of land was Rs 2000000!(Now about 1800000) That was a 16x gain in 10 years!
IF you put the cash at a treasury bill in year 1990 and took it around 2000 you would have gained 6x!!

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