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Who have experience in long term investments?

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ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Is there any of you who have experience in long term investments?

Guys if so please share your experiences. We have heard many success stories, is there some one who had been affected by long term investment?



Last edited by rijayasooriya on Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:57 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : title shortened.)

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Post Thu Jun 28, 2012 10:11 pm by smallville

Chinwi.. Classy examples bro.. keep it up..

BTW.. u should be an author.. Nice writing style.. Smile

Post Fri Jun 29, 2012 12:23 am by Slstock


Fantastic. Keep up the good stories and the writing style.

Chinwi wrote:මට තවත් එකක් මතක් උනා. මේක සිංහලෙන් ලියන්නම්. හැබැයි මම කලිනුත් ලියල තියෙනවා.

වසර: 1987 ( පමණ) අත්දැකීම: මගේ මයි. (chinwi)

සම්පත් බැංකුව මුලික නිකුතුව කළේ 8/- ගානේ. බැංකුව හොඳින් දියුණු උනා. වසරකින් එකහමාරකින් විතර කොටස් මිල 20 - 21 ට නැගල ගියා.

මෙන්න ඔවුන් 1:1 ක් හිමිකම් (rights ) නිකුතුවක් නිවේදනය කළා රු. 10/-. බැගින්.
නිකුතුව 1:1 නිසා කොටස් මිල කඩාගෙන වැටුන ආපහු 10 ටම.
මිනිස්සු පලු යන්න බනින්න පටන් ගත්ත.

මම මොනවද මේ කොටස් කියන්නේ, කොහොමද ඒවා ගන්නේ කියල හොයාගෙන කොළඹ ගිහින් බ්‍රෝකර් කොම්පැනියක් හෙව්වා. එවකට ප්‍රසිද්ධව තිබුනේ N .U .ජයවර්දන මහතා ගේ මර්කන්ටයිල් ස්ටොක් බ්‍රෝකර් සමාගම. තිබුනේ කොටුවේ ජනාධිපති මන්දිරය අසල ( අරලිය ගහ නොවේ) ඔරලෝසු කනුව එහෙමෙ තියෙන්නේ. ( දැන් ඒක තමයි ආශා පිලිප් උනේ. නම Asha Phillip උනාට ඒකේ කෝඩ් එක MSB කියල ලියන්නේ ඇයිද කියල දැන් හිතා ගන්න පුළුවන් නේ)

මම කලින්ම හිතාගෙන ගියා සම්පත් මිල අඩු උන නිසා එක තමයි ඉස්සෙල්ලම ගන්නේ කියල. රුපියල් 15,000 ක් අරන් ගියේ. (සල්ලි නැති නිසා SAMP IPO එක මිස් උන මට මේ මිල අඩුවීම නියම චාන්ස් එකක් උනා.)

ඉතින් ගිහිල්ල ඉල්ලුවම මෙන්න කියපි නෝනා කෙනෙකුගේ රයිට් වගයක් තියෙනවා. 1760 ක් ඒක ගන්න කියල. ( නෝනා සත දහය ගානේ රයිට් ටික විකුනන්නේ) මට ගෙවන්න වෙනවා එකකට රුපියල් 10 යි සත 10 යි.
ඒ කාලේ මේ වගේ CDS , කොම්පියුටර් නැහැ. නෝනා අත්සන් කරලා තියෙන රෝනියෝ කරලා තියෙන කොලේ මමත් අත්සන් කරලා සල්ලි ගෙවන්න වෙනවා.
රයිට් කියන්නේ මොනවද කියල වත් මම දන්නෙ නැහැ. ඒවා ගත්තම කොටස් ලැබෙනවා කිව්වා.
මම කිව්වා කොටස් 1500 ක් දෙන්න කියල.
එතන හිටපු ගොය්ය කියපි මොකක්ද 17,600 ක් නේ යන්නේ මේක කඩන්නේ නැතුව ඔක්කොම ගන්න කියල. කැඩුවොත් නෝනව හොයාගෙන ගෙදර ගිහිල්ල කොළ දෙකක අත්සන් ගන්න වෙනවලු. එදා අන්තිම දවස.
අවුරුදු 2 ක් විතර රස්සාව කරලා මගේ සන්තකයේ තියෙන්නේ 15,000 යි.
එතන ගිහින් ඉන්න කොට පේනවා මහත්තුරු ඇවිත් දාස් ගණන් ගනුදෙනු කරනවා.
මට දාඩියත් දා ගෙන ආව.
දැන් ඉතින් මොනවා කරන්නද. ගෙදර යන්නත් හිතුන. එත් ලැජ්ජයි. ලස්සන ගැණු ළමයිත් එතන හිටිය. මමත් ඉතින් කොලු වයස නේ.
මම කළ වැඩේ 17 දාස් ගානටම චෙක් එකක් ලියල දීල වැඩේ කරලා කොළඹ නවතින්නේ නැතුව එදාම හවස ඉක්මනට රාජකාරි කරපු ප්‍රදේශයට ගියා. ( සැතපුම් 100 ක් විතර දුර ) පස්සෙන්ද උදේම තව 3,000 ක් හොයාගෙන අකවුන්ට් එකට දැම්ම. අර දුන්න චෙක් එක එන්න කලින්.

ඔන්න ඉතින් මම ත් දැන් SAMP 1760 ක කොටස් හිමියෙක්.

ඊට මාස කිහිපයකට පස්සේ SAMP මිල 60/- ට ගියා.
ඉන්පසුව වරින් වර බෝනස් , රයිට් ආව.

මගේ ගත් මිල 17,600.
බෝනස්, රයිට් එක්ක SAMP මිල ඉහල ගිය එක වසරක එහි වටිනාකම තිබුන මිලියන් 1.6 ක් විතර .- මතක විදියට.

දැන් නම් ඒවා විකුණලා ගොඩක් කල්.
හැබැයි ලද අත්දැකීම් නම් තාම විකුණලා නැහැ.
අඹුවගෙන් බැනුම් අහමින් නිදි මරාගෙන ටයිප් කර කර නිකන් දෙනවා , මේ වගේ.

---
p.s.

අර මදි උන තුන් දාහ ඉල්ලා ගත්තේ මගේ 1st ලවු එක ගෙන්.
එයා පස්සේ මගේ 1st wife උනා .

1st කිව්වට තාමත් ඉන්නේ ඒ අම්මන්ඩිම තමයි.

අර කොටස් වල වටිනාකම නැග්ග ප්‍රමානයට අනුලෝමව එයාගේ වටිනාකම කෙසේ වෙතත් සයිස් එක නම් වැඩි උනා.
3000 දෙනකොට හිටපු කෙට්ටු පරානේ දැන් ලොරි බාගයක් සයිස්.
ඒකයි අම්මන්ඩි කිව්වේ.
රෑ නිදි මරාගෙන මේවා ලියනකොට බනින්නේ එයා තමයි.
මං කසාද බැඳලා තියෙන්නේ කොම්පියුටරේ ලු.

Thank you

Post Fri Jun 29, 2012 11:42 am by Chinwi

This is a story about a lucky and intelligent person who used his fortunes in stock market to buy a hotel.

I cannot remember the name, year , exact figures, location etc.

About 2 or 3 decades ago, Colombo Dockyard was mostly owned by the Govt. and they sold a part of it to a Japanese party to bring them into the management. Rest was with the public, trading in CSE .

As I recall, it was trading @ 15/- or around 20/-.

One morning, we got a news; to expand its capacity, they announced 4 rights @ 10/- for 1 existing share.

That means, if you had 1000 shares by investing 15,000, suddenly you had to find money for 4000 rights @ 10. ( 40,000/-)

Reacting to this news of big dilution, share price dropped to 10/-.
As in the SAMP case people started shouting everywhere. ( Fortunately no blogs those days :-) ) Expecting further drop, many retailers panicked and rushed to sell their holding at least @ 10/-

Rights issue was not successful , as everybody expected.

The person I wanted to highlight here was a novice to the market, had 500 DOCK shares. As such, his entitlement was 2000 rights.

Acting in contrast to most of the experienced players, he applied for 40,000 additional rights in addition to his entitlement. By doing this, he expected to get at lease 10% , i.e. 4000 additional shares and get a return of 20% within few months.
He had about 4 laks of Rupees with him and he used it in entirety to secure higher percentage of additional shares.
Actually he wanted to invest only about 50,000 and expected to receive the balance when they reject most of his request.

Unexpectedly, they gave him everything !. As many people had not executed their rights everybody was given all they asked !.

Now he is trapped and all the money he had was 'DOCKed' in CSE. !

Meantime, another interesting thing was happening. The Japanese investor / ship builder who had some good number of shares and had engaged in the company work has also expressed his willingness to buy all the rights unsubscribed by Sri Lankans. The transaction was done accordingly.

Now all of sudden, DOCK became a 'Japanese' company. !

The news spread. Hopes and talks of better management, New technology, worldwide orders...etc ...

Within 2 weeks the share price went to 18. Some people dropped their holding happily.
Interestingly, our man showed no signs of panic. !
In another 2 weeks it went to 23 and maintained that level for about 10 days. Again, no action from our man.!
Withing the period of 3 months of XR, it went to 20, 25, 28, 30, 35, and finally DOCK was docked around @ 40/-

Our hero sold his 42,000 @ 40/-

Brokers, fellow traders asked/expected him to re invest in other shares.

He never fell into that trap to lose his money by re investing in already appreciated 'other stocks'.

Later we came to know that he bought a beachfront with 17 rooms and large spare area in down south somewhere closer to Hambantota- Kataragama roadway using his money.
He renamed it as 'Docks.'!

Post Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:59 pm by WildBear

Chinwi wrote:This is a story about a lucky and intelligent person who used his fortunes in stock market to buy a hotel.

I cannot remember the name, year , exact figures, location etc.

About 2 or 3 decades ago, Colombo Dockyard was mostly owned by the Govt. and they sold a part of it to a Japanese party to bring them into the management. Rest was with the public, trading in CSE .

As I recall, it was trading @ 15/- or around 20/-.

One morning, we got a news; to expand its capacity, they announced 4 rights @ 10/- for 1 existing share.

That means, if you had 1000 shares by investing 15,000, suddenly you had to find money for 4000 rights @ 10. ( 40,000/-)

Reacting to this news of big dilution, share price dropped to 10/-.
As in the SAMP case people started shouting everywhere. ( Fortunately no blogs those days :-) ) Expecting further drop, many retailers panicked and rushed to sell their holding at least @ 10/-

Rights issue was not successful , as everybody expected.

The person I wanted to highlight here was a novice to the market, had 500 DOCK shares. As such, his entitlement was 2000 rights.

Acting in contrast to most of the experienced players, he applied for 40,000 additional rights in addition to his entitlement. By doing this, he expected to get at lease 10% , i.e. 4000 additional shares and get a return of 20% within few months.
He had about 4 laks of Rupees with him and he used it in entirety to secure higher percentage of additional shares.
Actually he wanted to invest only about 50,000 and expected to receive the balance when they reject most of his request.

Unexpectedly, they gave him everything !. As many people had not executed their rights everybody was given all they asked !.

Now he is trapped and all the money he had was 'DOCKed' in CSE. !

Meantime, another interesting thing was happening. The Japanese investor / ship builder who had some good number of shares and had engaged in the company work has also expressed his willingness to buy all the rights unsubscribed by Sri Lankans. The transaction was done accordingly.

Now all of sudden, DOCK became a 'Japanese' company. !

The news spread. Hopes and talks of better management, New technology, worldwide orders...etc ...

Within 2 weeks the share price went to 18. Some people dropped their holding happily.
Interestingly, our man showed no signs of panic. !
In another 2 weeks it went to 23 and maintained that level for about 10 days. Again, no action from our man.!
Withing the period of 3 months of XR, it went to 20, 25, 28, 30, 35, and finally DOCK was docked around @ 40/-

Our hero sold his 42,000 @ 40/-

Brokers, fellow traders asked/expected him to re invest in other shares.

He never fell into that trap to lose his money by re investing in already appreciated 'other stocks'.

Later we came to know that he bought a beachfront with 17 rooms and large spare area in down south somewhere closer to Hambantota- Kataragama roadway using his money.
He renamed it as 'Docks.'!

Very interesting stories from a experienced investor. I feel in DOCK case that person is Lucky in his investment decision rather than Smart.Think what would have happened if this Japanese investor did not appear suddenly. Then DOCK could have been ended like a failed government enterprise like Pugoda textiles which disappeared from CSE like VANIK.

Chinwi

Post Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:49 am by Chinwi

Can you see some similarities in both stories. ?

How was the general reaction to the dilution of the share? How people valued the share just using PER, NAVPS without considering the other factors.

Even today, you can see many people follow these ratios neglecting other factors.

I am also using those ratios to get general idea about the past performances and the current situation of the company.

If you think investing for future I think you have to see who is in the cockpit, current trends, nature of business, cash flow and do some SWOT etc.

Specially in Sri Lanka, you have to know about the qualities ( good / bad) and past performances of the of the key personnel.

In above 2 cases, presence of Dr. N.U Jayawardena - the veteran in banking and the Japanese collaboration was more powerful than the ratios.

I think the person who put his money on DOCK anticipated a good outcome because we knew the Japanese were already there when they took the decision to increase the capital by 500%. That may be the reason for me too to apply 4000 additional shares. Wink
First, I sold 2000 @ 23 to recover my cost. Other 2000 @ 40 to get a profit of 80,000. Not like him, I reinvested it in other shares


rjeranimo

Post Sun Jul 01, 2012 12:49 pm by rjeranimo

Above two stories are very fascinating. we need those type of stories to inspire our moral and experience. since my childhood i always like to hear successes of someone in any Field. So thanks for sharing this valuable stories.

But i have little concern here. those two successful stories were happened within a year, after investing? if so...... are they long term?

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