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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » The near future, the budget and the investor confidence

The near future, the budget and the investor confidence

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
There is talk that if ASI breaks 6250 then it might crash to RS 5500-5000 even! Mind boggling huh? Investor confidence is at rock bottom. Retailers are running on last legs. HNWI not in the market. Credit issues, Foreign participation minimal, global issues, Expropriation bill negativity etc etc. All negative.

If it continues like this we cannot rule out a market crash. Also there is Credit Clearance in December.
Will they let another Bangladesh SE incident.


Let us examine further,

1) The issue is when market goes down it seems all good shares ( fundamentals also) are dragged down more than the crap which is overvalued. Some shares have over corrected already. ( while some haven't I agree). CSE as always has unusual behaviors. So if the market keep going down what will happen top shares ( some down by 40% already) and have higher market cap.
What will happen to market capitalization?


Will "they" also allow these shares to crash like in 2008 along with the market.If they fall another 30% from current prices ( assuming some good share drop faster than ASI in a downfall as we have seen so far ) With another 30% discount , does anyone see SAMP at RS 150, DIAL at Rs 5.5, NTB at Rs 40, DFCC at RS 80, RCL/LFIN at Rs 95 , SLTL at Rs 30, LOLC at Rs 65 , BRWN at RS 180 etc etc


2) What will happen to hot stocks like CLND,HVA,REEF, REG with so many who had bought SO high. Will the owners of these companies also keep quiet let is crash a whole lot further?

3) More importantly what will happen to small retailer portfolios which are mostly probably blood red by now. Will they get wiped out beyond recovery. Will SEC not protect them as per their duty ?


Okay, lets add up the pieces of the puzzle now and get to the interesting part.


So much negativity now.

But positively/negatively budget is coming up. Does anyone want to see investor confidence up or further down? Last year we saw a mini rally before the budget. Can we expect the same this time with this low investor confidence and participation.

We see 3 options..
a) Nobody cares : so let the market continues like this until end of the year.
b) maybe some one will care and show temporary ups by creating fake/mini rallies before or after budget
c) or overall offer us a carrot again in the near future to boost investor confidence. If so what will it be. Will it be a hard guess? Wink Wink


What do you think?



Last edited by slstock on Mon Nov 14, 2011 7:25 am; edited 2 times in total

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
I'm thinking about option (a).
Sorry to say that's the reality.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
The bitter truth, thanks Slstock. I have added SLTL, JKH, Dial, BUKI to monitoring list, so I can better judge the ASI movement in this market. It's very easy to show a green market with these counters and with less participation from investors.

I see little hope with all these... even if a carrot is given, big players get to know it first and they will make huge profit by the time we enter to the market by selling to us and again dragging the market down. maybe not exactly but something like this keeps happening.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Let me point out a hidden issue I was asking and make it more interesting.

Can we see the authorities giving us a Carrot/ "Temporary relief", call it what you may during this week or soon after the budget, to get some investor confidence back? In other words what is the biggest issue we see at CSE. Lower volumes day by day and low investor confidence. Which will eventually lead to ....

So how can one inject more money to Market? Wink

If the market goes like this ....asi in 5000s is evident.

But lets see. Firts lets see what kind of a day today is?



Soundchips


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
So far no good news hope after the budget...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-14/sri-lanka-estimates-2012-budget-deficit-of-1-105-trillion-rupees.html

arrowms


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Budget do not give big impact 'cos its nothing. Budget impact also controlled by manipulators. CSE behavior should be monitor with few HNIW investors in CSE.
( If U are in Forex, DOW or Hang Seng u dont have this dependency this much )
**CSE is on the hand of few HNIW investors. I think they will collect this/next weeks and drop end of December where all are having Money and Happy.
Retailers will jump that time and sad stories will be begin. That is option b
**New man in CSE will try to boost index changing rules and again retailers will use broker credits and will be in trouble at the beginning 2012. That is option c

I think and invest for long term profit in CSE because of above.

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
My opinion the chances are in and around option a-50%, option-b20% and option c-30%.

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hmm I can remember what JRJ famously said about the national security few of decades ago.. It was controversial but there's some truth behind that.
Especially when it comes to markets

johnmartin


Stock Trader
I am agree with your thinking. It's very nice & impressive.


stock picks

Deva


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
sriranga, I am in the same line of thinking.
But my question is, after end of this year, how would CSE look like?
If it depreciate at this level, will CSE exist after end of this year.

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