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There is talk that if ASI breaks 6250 then it might crash to RS 5500-5000 even! Mind boggling huh? Investor confidence is at rock bottom. Retailers are running on last legs. HNWI not in the market. Credit issues, Foreign participation minimal, global issues, Expropriation bill negativity etc etc. All negative.
If it continues like this we cannot rule out a market crash. Also there is Credit Clearance in December.
Will they let another Bangladesh SE incident.
Let us examine further,
1) The issue is when market goes down it seems all good shares ( fundamentals also) are dragged down more than the crap which is overvalued. Some shares have over corrected already. ( while some haven't I agree). CSE as always has unusual behaviors. So if the market keep going down what will happen top shares ( some down by 40% already) and have higher market cap.
What will happen to market capitalization?
Will "they" also allow these shares to crash like in 2008 along with the market.If they fall another 30% from current prices ( assuming some good share drop faster than ASI in a downfall as we have seen so far ) With another 30% discount , does anyone see SAMP at RS 150, DIAL at Rs 5.5, NTB at Rs 40, DFCC at RS 80, RCL/LFIN at Rs 95 , SLTL at Rs 30, LOLC at Rs 65 , BRWN at RS 180 etc etc
2) What will happen to hot stocks like CLND,HVA,REEF, REG with so many who had bought SO high. Will the owners of these companies also keep quiet let is crash a whole lot further?
3) More importantly what will happen to small retailer portfolios which are mostly probably blood red by now. Will they get wiped out beyond recovery. Will SEC not protect them as per their duty ?
Okay, lets add up the pieces of the puzzle now and get to the interesting part.
So much negativity now.
But positively/negatively budget is coming up. Does anyone want to see investor confidence up or further down? Last year we saw a mini rally before the budget. Can we expect the same this time with this low investor confidence and participation.
We see 3 options..
a) Nobody cares : so let the market continues like this until end of the year.
b) maybe some one will care and show temporary ups by creating fake/mini rallies before or after budget
c) or overall offer us a carrot again in the near future to boost investor confidence. If so what will it be. Will it be a hard guess?
What do you think?
If it continues like this we cannot rule out a market crash. Also there is Credit Clearance in December.
Will they let another Bangladesh SE incident.
Let us examine further,
1) The issue is when market goes down it seems all good shares ( fundamentals also) are dragged down more than the crap which is overvalued. Some shares have over corrected already. ( while some haven't I agree). CSE as always has unusual behaviors. So if the market keep going down what will happen top shares ( some down by 40% already) and have higher market cap.
What will happen to market capitalization?
Will "they" also allow these shares to crash like in 2008 along with the market.If they fall another 30% from current prices ( assuming some good share drop faster than ASI in a downfall as we have seen so far ) With another 30% discount , does anyone see SAMP at RS 150, DIAL at Rs 5.5, NTB at Rs 40, DFCC at RS 80, RCL/LFIN at Rs 95 , SLTL at Rs 30, LOLC at Rs 65 , BRWN at RS 180 etc etc
2) What will happen to hot stocks like CLND,HVA,REEF, REG with so many who had bought SO high. Will the owners of these companies also keep quiet let is crash a whole lot further?
3) More importantly what will happen to small retailer portfolios which are mostly probably blood red by now. Will they get wiped out beyond recovery. Will SEC not protect them as per their duty ?
Okay, lets add up the pieces of the puzzle now and get to the interesting part.
So much negativity now.
But positively/negatively budget is coming up. Does anyone want to see investor confidence up or further down? Last year we saw a mini rally before the budget. Can we expect the same this time with this low investor confidence and participation.
We see 3 options..
a) Nobody cares : so let the market continues like this until end of the year.
b) maybe some one will care and show temporary ups by creating fake/mini rallies before or after budget
c) or overall offer us a carrot again in the near future to boost investor confidence. If so what will it be. Will it be a hard guess?
What do you think?
Last edited by slstock on Mon Nov 14, 2011 7:25 am; edited 2 times in total
