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Trailing 12-month PER of 14.4X signals right time to accumulate – ‘Get Rich Slow'

+5
Soundchips
Slstock
sriranga
chamith
Rapaport
9 posters

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Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

For the new investors waiting on the sidelines, there would be no better time than this with the market having elevated to an attractive platform of trailing 12-month PER of 14.4X

The slight recovery witnessed at open was not sustainable with the ASPI gliding down from its peak of 6,352.8 points (at around 9:58 am) to a low of 6,226.26 points (at around 2:17 pm) before closing at 6,239.52 points. Overall sentiments of the bourse remained inert with some hopes drawn up on the upcoming Budget announcement for 2012 as Colombo bourse YTD decline reached 6% today. The advisory committee sees no light in trading in the short term though they believe that this is an ideal time to hoard on stocks which would turnaround with the market once positive news, that can influence the activities of the investor, come up.

For the new investors waiting on the sidelines, there would be no better time than this with the market having elevated to an attractive platform of trailing 12-month PER of 14.4X with the corporate earnings release and deeper shed of the bourse. When analyzing the well-known mid-cap counters, the correction has been as steep as 20%-30% from their highs in February. The right time to accumulate would be when stocks go relatively silent and not when activity is heated up. We guide our clients to take the ‘Get Rich Slow’ path, and be less worried about falling stock prices in the short term. Making big quick money in today’s market is no longer practical. Hence, the right investment style to master right now would be to hoard on the fundamental counters and hold over a longer time horizon.

Asiri Surgical Hospitals, having made around LKR206.3 mn during 1HFY12, saw some active renewed participation today. The counter saw some 03 heavy trades taking around 3.75 mn shares each at LKR8.3 and another carrying 1.2 mn shares in the market. Hence, the counter emerged to lead the day’s turnover list with a 8.3% contribution and proved to rise as much as 5.1% to LKR8.3 but calmed down to close flat at LKR7.9. Though no crossings were registered, Dialog Axiata too witnessed five single large trades totaling to 3.5 mn shares being traded in the market at LKR8.0.
Interest continued in John Keells Holdings whilst Softlogic Holdings saw some active participation followed by Carsons Cumberbatch. Furthermore, accumulation was evident in Diesel & Motor Engineering and Ceylon Tobacco whilst Nestle Lanka closed with a gain of 0.2% to LKR871.7 after trading at a high of LKR930.0. J L Morisons saw some buying interest with both the voting (+4.02%) and non-voting (+7.49%) closing in the green after their announcement of a 1:10 subdivision on Friday.

Hotel developers disclosed that the assets of the company are vested with the Government and the shares of all shareholders of the company are now to be held by the Secretary to the Treasury. We still wait to see investor reaction as the disclosure was made after trading hours. Rating agent, Moody, had already commented on the Sri Lanka’s law of expropriation of assets of many firms, especially of the listed entities, can darken investment climate and hurt island’s credit ratings.

European stocks turn negative as Italy’s bond rise whilst the Asian stock rose with Japanese economy growth and Greek political scenario : The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 1.3% after losing nearly 2.4% last week. With Greek political scenario calming and with Japan’s GDP growing at an annualized 6% with 3Q2011 expanding by 1.5% and Indian inflation having slowed, the Asian stocks registered gains.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.3%, at around 10.15 am in London, with around 3 shares falling for every one that gained. Italy sold all €3 bn of the five-year notes it offered at today’s auction after a message was sent across to all bondholders on the seriousness of ending the sovereign debt crisis.

Copper led the day’s commodity market with progress of the Japanese economy to trade at around USD355 per pound (up 1.62%). Crude Oil dipped, erasing off early gains on anticipation of weak Chinese demand. Crude oil for December delivery was seen at USD98.70 per barrel in New York Mercantile Exchange at around 10:26 am in London.

by Arrenga Capital

chamith

chamith
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

I m so happy to hear that market PER has come down to 14.4x. But still according to CSE it's at 16.06x

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin

Thanks a lot for sharing.
Trailing 12-month PER of 14.4X is a good sign for investors.
So many solid shares are at bargain.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

chamith wrote:I m so happy to hear that market PER has come down to 14.4x. But still according to CSE it's at 16.06x

Well the latest earnings results as of today would not have been taken into consideration.

Market PE even might get a tad better with some companies still waiting to release results. LCEY/CFLB group, Renuka group etc



Last edited by slstock on Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:27 am; edited 1 time in total

Soundchips


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

still there is room for correction. ...some of those recent things have done more damage to investor confidence ...than any benefits to the economy..... credit issue and force selling has not come to an end...

godswen

godswen
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Wow, 14.4! I thought 16-17 would be nice! Remember, it was around 27 once! :/

Universalgoal


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Regoen PER average 13 - 14 so verry atractive on any good new bull will takecare investors from last year october it was on the bears hand lets see...

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics



I think it is the RESPONSIBILITY of the authoritizes involved (as it is their job) to findway to reinstate investor confidence before this turns out to a blood bath the ways things are going. By the way these market corrections are needed and heathly no question. But in any market there are ups and downs so some people can get out if they want to. Even fundamental undervalues share keep going down while crap holds thing are not looking great. At CSE the downs are brutal and and too many with lesser green days lately. So eventually it is only heading in one direction.

Due to low market interest, even if the market trades at PE of 8 now people ( retailers) will still sell due to various underlying issues. No confidence ( and no money) even with improved results.

We do not want to repeat a 2008 december or a crash do we.

Let hope we have green day today atleast after a heavy fall yesterday.


rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:

I think it is the RESPONSIBILITY of the authoritizes involved (as it is their job) to findway to reinstate investor confidence before this turns out to a blood bath the ways things are going. By the way these market corrections are needed and heathly no question. But in any market there are ups and downs so some people can get out if they want to. Even fundamental undervalues share keep going down while crap holds thing are not looking great. At CSE the downs are brutal and and too many with lesser green days lately. So eventually it is only heading in one direction.

Due to low market interest, even if the market trades at PE of 8 now people ( retailers) will still sell due to various underlying issues. No confidence ( and no money) even with improved results.

We do not want to repeat a 2008 december or a crash do we.

Let hope we have green day today atleast after a heavy fall yesterday.


Yes slstock.Market do need a somesort of correction.Otherwise market will be crashed.Some may be waiting for that.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

rijayasooriya wrote:
slstock wrote:

I think it is the RESPONSIBILITY of the authoritizes involved (as it is their job) to findway to reinstate investor confidence before this turns out to a blood bath the ways things are going. By the way these market corrections are needed and heathly no question. But in any market there are ups and downs so some people can get out if they want to. Even fundamental undervalues share keep going down while crap holds thing are not looking great. At CSE the downs are brutal and and too many with lesser green days lately. So eventually it is only heading in one direction.

Due to low market interest, even if the market trades at PE of 8 now people ( retailers) will still sell due to various underlying issues. No confidence ( and no money) even with improved results.

We do not want to repeat a 2008 december or a crash do we.

Let hope we have green day today atleast after a heavy fall yesterday.


Yes slstock.Market do need a somesort of correction.Otherwise market will be crashed.Some may be waiting for that.

Is this a natural correction is the question?


econ

econ
Global Moderator

SEC idiots ruined the market.

godswen

godswen
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:
Is this a natural correction is the question?

silent

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:
rijayasooriya wrote:
slstock wrote:

I think it is the RESPONSIBILITY of the authoritizes involved (as it is their job) to findway to reinstate investor confidence before this turns out to a blood bath the ways things are going. By the way these market corrections are needed and heathly no question. But in any market there are ups and downs so some people can get out if they want to. Even fundamental undervalues share keep going down while crap holds thing are not looking great. At CSE the downs are brutal and and too many with lesser green days lately. So eventually it is only heading in one direction.

Due to low market interest, even if the market trades at PE of 8 now people ( retailers) will still sell due to various underlying issues. No confidence ( and no money) even with improved results.

We do not want to repeat a 2008 december or a crash do we.

Let hope we have green day today atleast after a heavy fall yesterday.


Yes slstock.Market do need a somesort of correction.Otherwise market will be crashed.Some may be waiting for that.

Is this a natural correction is the question?


What I meant is upward correction not a downward correction at the moment.

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

I think Arrenga has taken 3Q11/2Q12 results into consideration in their PE calculation. Yes the CSE PE is at 16X still since latest results not considered yet.

One Broker house forecasts year end PE at 15.2X and forward PE at 11x. This was when market was around 6400 points. Now this valuation should have improved further with ASPI dipping down and results being good, and if companies do better, forward PE may be even as low as 10X. Its a BARGAIN!

Most Asian markets trade between 12-14X PE with China in that league and India at 18X!

Cheers!

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