FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Encyclopedia of Latest news, reviews, discussions and analysis of stock market and investment opportunities in Sri Lanka


Submit PostSubmit Post
ශ්‍රී ලංකා මූල්‍ය වංශකථාව - සිංහල
Submit Post



Latest topics

» SEMB SEMB
by RJ1010 Today at 12:21 am

» Leading brokers causing market downturn
by dhanushkacse Yesterday at 10:18 pm

» පෙබරවාරි මාසේ කොළඹ කොටස් වලට මොකක්ද වුනේ - බැසුවාද ? බැස්සාද ?
by Nishan Cooray Yesterday at 9:42 pm

» TRUE VALUE OF LANKA ALUMINUM INDUSTRY (LALU)
by Trading Jockey Yesterday at 6:56 pm

» NATIONS TRUST BANK PLC (NTB.N0000)
by chathura123 Yesterday at 3:53 pm

» UNHCR Fear is over 21 countries speak for us only 15 against
by Vishwanarth Yesterday at 11:14 am

» Daily Foreign Transactions
by Mithooshan Yesterday at 7:31 am

» SOFTLOGIC HOLDINGS PLC (SHL.N0000)
by suku502 Yesterday at 12:58 am

» DFCC will be receiving Rs.594,538,285.50
by Wonderer Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:49 pm

» UNHCR එකේ ලොකූ ටෝක දැම්මට සමහර ඔස්තාර් ලා කියන ආර්තික සම්භාදක අරවා මේවා මුකුත් එන්නේ නැ
by Vishwanarth Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:27 pm

» BROWNS INVESTMENTS PLC (BIL.N0000)
by samaritan Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:45 am

» GLAS will be winner with Super Gain.
by Eranga87 Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:00 am

» If you are one of those people who can sleep at night while someone else is in control of your destiny, then my advice would be to only invest in stocks
by Asoka Samarakone Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:58 pm

» Price prediction on GRAN and TAFL
by Bakkabwoi Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:22 pm

» EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)
by Vishwanarth Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:54 pm

» Bullish sentiment returns with market regulator's assurance
by Vishwanarth Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:52 pm

» DIPD/HAYC/HAYL
by Wickyz Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:19 pm

» Chart 25.02.2021
by stockback Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:41 pm

» is it a good time to sell expo shares
by Kipling Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:39 am

» Current 2021 Februray Unit Trust/Unit Fund Per Annum percentages
by agentnrox Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:13 am

EXPERT CHRONICLE™

ECONOMIC CHRONICLE

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

CHRONICLE™ NEWS PRODUCTS

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™

Views & Reviews, Analysis, Evaluations, Discussions, Gossip and Hot Tips relating to Sri Lankan companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE)
Contribute




DAILY CHRONICLE™

Latest news and articles published in Newspapers, Websites, Blogs and other online news sites relating to business and investments in Sri Lanka
Contribute



ECONOMIC CHRONICLE™

This is a section that provide news, views, analysis, predications relating to Political and Socio-Economic factors and how such activities affect the Stock Market and other economic activity of the Country.

Contribute




EXPERT CHRONICLE™

This is an exclusive section for Expert Articles which will help member to share knowledge through comments and responses of the members. All members are allowed to reply and make comments to these articles.

Contribute


Submit Post


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

Youtube Videos and other visual presentations relating Stock market and other investment advise submitted by members or other contributors.

Contribute


Submit Post


කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ වංශකථාව
කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ ලැයිස්තුගත සමාගම් කොටස් ගැන තොරතුරු¸විශ්ලේෂණ¸සාකච්ඡා¸ කටකතා¸රසකතා යන සියල්ල අපේම සිංහලෙන් කතා කළ හැකි ‘කතා මණ්ඩපය’

Contribute

Twitter Feeds
POPULAR COMPANIES
A

ABANS ELECTRICALS PLC

ACCESS ENGINEERING PLC Hot

ACL CABLES PLC

ACL PLASTICS PLC

ACME PRINTING & PACKAGING PLC

AGSTAR PLC

AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC

AITKEN SPENCE PLC

ANILANA HOTELS AND PROPERTIES PLC

ARPICO INSURANCE PLC

ASIA ASSET FINANCE PLC

ASIA CAPITAL PLC

B

BAIRAHA FARMS PLC

BALANGODA PLANTATIONS PLC

BIMPUTH FINANCE PLC

BLUE DIAMONDS JEWELLERY WORLDWIDE PLC

B P P L HOLDINGS PLC

BROWNS BEACH HOTELS PLC

BROWNS INVESTMENTS PLC

C

CARGO BOAT DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC

CENTRAL INDUSTRIES PLC

CEYLON COLD STORES PLC

CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC Hot

CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC

CEYLON TOBACCO COMPANY PLC

CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC

COLOMBO FORT LAND & BUILDING PLC

COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON PLC

CITRUS LEISURE PLC Hot

COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND FINANCE PLC

D

DANKOTUWA PORCELAIN PLC

DFCC BANK PLC

DIALOG AXIATA PLC

DIALOG FINANCE PLC

DIPPED PRODUCTS PLC

DISTILLERIES COMPANY OF SRI LANKA PLC

DUNAMIS CAPITAL PLC

E

EAST WEST PROPERTIES PLC Hot

EASTERN MERCHANTS PLC

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC

E-CHANNELLING PLC

F

FIRST CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC

G

GALADARI HOTELS (LANKA) PLC

GUARDIAN CAPITAL PARTNERS PLC

H

HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC

HAYLEYS PLC

HAYLEYS FABRIC PLC

HAYLEYS FIBRE PLC Hot

HEMAS HOLDINGS PLC

HIKKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC

HNB ASSURANCE PLC

HVA FOODS PLC

J

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC

JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC Hot

JOHN KEELLS HOTELS PLC

L

LANKA ASHOK LEYLAND PLC

LANKA IOC PLC

LANKEM CEYLON PLC

LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC

LAUGFS GAS PLC

LAUGFS POWER LIMITED

LOLC FINANCE PLC

LOLC HOLDINGS PLC

LUCKY LANKA MILK PROCESSING COMPANY PLC

M

MELSTACORP PLC

N

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK PLC

NATION LANKA FINANCE PLC

NESTLE LANKA PLC

O

ORIENT FINANCE PLC

OVERSEAS REALTY (CEYLON) PLC

P

PANASIAN POWER PLC

PEOPLE'S LEASING & FINANCE PLC

PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC

PRIME FINANCE PLC

R

RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC

RENUKA AGRI FOODS PLC

RENUKA CAPITAL PLC

RENUKA HOLDINGS PLC

RICHARD PIERIS AND COMPANY PLC

RICHARD PIERIS EXPORTS PLC Hot

ROYAL CERAMICS PLC

S

SAMPATH BANK PLC

SEYLAN BANK PLC

SIERRA CABLES PLC

SINGHE HOSPITALS PLC Hot

SMB LEASING PLC

SOFTLOGIC HOLDINGS PLC

SOFTLOGIC LIFE INSURANCE PLC

SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC

SWISSTEK (CEYLON) PLC Hot

T

TEEJAY LANKA PLC

TESS AGRO PLC

THREE ACRE FARMS PLC

TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC Hot

U

UNION BANK OF COLOMBO PLC

V

VALLIBEL FINANCE PLC

VALLIBEL ONE PLC Hot

VALLIBEL POWER ERATHNA PLC

W

WASKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC


You are not connected. Please login or register

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » I said this down trend months ago.Remember?

I said this down trend months ago.Remember?

Go to page : 1, 2  Next

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 2]

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I said the market may fall down below 6000 and even 4800 levels.. Find my post and read. Aministrators ! Can you locate my post and link it to this post.
Open following chart to see it with your own eyes
I have the next possible resistance as R1. Another bear market rally (or Dead cat bounce is possible there)
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/market11.jpg
[img][/img]https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/market11.jpg



Last edited by rijayasooriya on Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:36 pm; edited 3 times in total (Reason for editing : title shortened.)

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
May be this is the link
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t7218-what-may-be-the-bottom

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks Sriranga .That's it.
I believed in my chart and still with cash as I sold all my stock by during that time.. But I did some trading . Not investing.

balapas


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Your prediction of market falling bellow 5000 can change if they reintroduce more credit facilities. However granting more credit can be the start of a bigger disaster.

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
There is a strong support at 5600- 5700 level. (R1 in the above chart). I don't know whether it will be strong enough to re- bounce the market or not. If it fails it may come down to 4750 level. ( How terrible?) But there are few more weak supports before 4750 level.

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Balapas

If they allow more credit it may cause the market to bounce back. But it is temporary. It can not change anything. But those who are stuck may get a chance to get out minimizing loss.

I PUBLISH MY POSTS IN THIS FORUM ONLY WHEN I HAVE A STRONG FEELING ABOUT THE UPTREND OR DOWN TRENDS . OTHERS AVE THEIR OWN IDEAS.

lokuayya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
good prediction stockmate.
but unfortunately everybody cannot escape early .some will have to get trapped in the market.

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks for information... I am also trapped ... Is it the middle?. ....I try my best to exit in the middle rather than getting trapped in the bottom...worried...

lokuayya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
i have no plan to exit at this stage. i like the cooperate performances. pretty good .i will stick my my shares like glue.too late to exit. i can hold two three years.

arrowms


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
THX stokmate. In trouble. But all investmants are top 10 in financial sector. Hope to consider as long term investment.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
As I remember Tubel was elling that we're heading on a bear market many months ago may be in Feb-March even.. That time we were short sighted and argued Wink

Then Stockmate told this in July once again.. Still we had time to exit if we were cared but have we listened? We dare hold on n on n on...

Greed preceeds all in every case.. If you control greed, ur in a better position..

lokuayya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
i had a wrong belief that fundamentally sound shares would hold.but it is not happening.all are crap.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Yes there were few people like Tubal and Stockmate and others who predicted the fall. When ASI hit 7800 with most of the stocks being overvalued, there had to be a market correction if CSE was to sustain. It was needed and healthy.

But fall is only a fall if it becomes a reality as markets can carry on positive momentum for months. But at some point the reality need to happen. In our case that is exactly what happened and it happened due to many factors with the overvalued market being a prime reason (which badly needed a correction), macroeconomic factors, irrational/immoral speculative chasing by retailers (and getting money tied up in junk), immoral behaviors of the big boy to manipulate market , certain experiments conducted by authorities with no clear plan etc etc .

Now the question is are we over-correcting as market has lost 1700 points from the Top and is trading around PE of 14-15. MPI is in more terrible state. If we take out the overvalued junk , market must be even more attractive as we find 5-10 PE counters with attractive pegs. The Forward market PE is probably even more attractive . Some of the then overvalued market giants like JKH,SPEN,CARS group, HNB also have showed relatively better profits while loosing it market share value to narrow down to a better valuation comparatively. Speculative share with no fundamentals which went sky high like GREG group, REEF, EMER, EAST had also come down drastically. Now we are loosing day by days due to negative momentum and investor confidence and other facts. Are we still in a natural correction or a overreacted one due to external behaviors and factors.

Ofcourse of there are still shares which have lot of room for downward correction . But why cannot they get corrected on their own? Do we need a whole market correction losing 1.5-2% a day until ASI hit 5500-5000.


In a good correction, over valued shares should get corrected while fundamentals should relatively hold it value. What was happening. Is it natural? More importantly why is it happening still? In any healthy market there should be sufficient green days along with the more red days. Green days are becoming harder to find now while drops are getting too severe. The only green days we saw was totally fake.


There is something "fundamentally" Wink wrong in our market behavior now. But atleast I see thing are improving a little than before.


Let us hope for the best. Hope there will be bear market run ( temporary) soon. And hope this this blood bath does not happen.


@smallville wrote: Greed preceeds all in every case.. If you control greed, ur in a better position..



There is another side to this. It might be pure greed for some and for others it might be that they did not see a reason to sell their
a) fundamentals they were holding trading at much below market PEs
b) these share never really had a run though they deserve a run ( never ran too far to make them overvalued in the forward valuations/growth context)
c) good share at loss

Ex:
If some one bought DIMO at Rs 1400-1500 , DIST at Rs 175-180 , RHL at Rs 60-65, RCL at Rs 150-155, Samp at Rs 230-240 we really cannot say they were overvalued or bad buys.( I am not promoting my portfolio though I have some of them at not the prices quoted). By the end of March quarter most these were trading with PE of 6-10 when market was in 20s. So why would someone sell them at loss ?

In a natural market correction we need to be more worried if we held overvalued junk right? But CSE is not behaving that way. Most times fundamentals loose more value than the junk shares in a down fall. Question is why did this happen.

There is something fundamentally wrong with our market behavior and thiking. We think and act on extremes and panic too much.


As far as I see, many hold junk going after the market trend and sell their fundamentals saying " what is the use of holding them". They started to sell non moving fundamentals to invest in more junk. One big reason for the further downfall is due to these irrational/immoral investment behaviors along with credit restrictions in place forcing them act even more drastically in crisis. Sometimes selling good shares at a loss is the only way out to get out of the mess they already in.




sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@slstock wrote:
Yes there were few people like Tubal and Stockmate and others who predicted the fall. When ASI hit 7800 with most of the stocks being overvalued, there had to be a market correction if CSE was to sustain. It was needed and healthy.

But fall is only a fall if it becomes a reality as markets can carry on positive momentum for months. But at some point the reality need to happen. In our case that is exactly what happened and it happened due to many factors with the overvalued market being a prime reason (which badly needed a correction), macroeconomic factors, irrational/immoral speculative chasing by retailers (and getting money tied up in junk), immoral behaviors of the big boy to manipulate market , certain experiments conducted by authorities with no clear plan etc etc .

Now the question is are we over-correcting as market has lost 1700 points from the Top and is trading around PE of 14-15. MPI is in more terrible state. If we take out the overvalued junk , market must be even more attractive as we find 5-10 PE counters with attractive pegs. The Forward market PE is probably even more attractive . Some of the then overvalued market giants like JKH,SPEN,CARS group, HNB also have showed relatively better profits while loosing it market share value to narrow down to a better valuation comparatively. Speculative share with no fundamentals which went sky high like GREG group, REEF, EMER, EAST had also come down drastically. Now we are loosing day by days due to negative momentum and investor confidence and other facts. Are we still in a natural correction or a overreacted one due to external behaviors and factors.

Ofcourse of there are still shares which have lot of room for downward correction . But why cannot they get corrected on their own? Do we need a whole market correction losing 1.5-2% a day until ASI hit 5500-5000.


In a good correction, over valued shares should get corrected while fundamentals should relatively hold it value. What was happening. Is it natural? More importantly why is it happening still? In any healthy market there should be sufficient green days along with the more red days. Green days are becoming harder to find now while drops are getting too severe. The only green days we saw was totally fake.


There is something "fundamentally" Wink wrong in our market behavior now. But atleast I see thing are improving a little than before.


Let us hope for the best. Hope there will be bear market run ( temporary) soon. And hope this this blood bath does not happen.


@smallville wrote: Greed preceeds all in every case.. If you control greed, ur in a better position..



There is another side to this. It might be pure greed for some and for others it might be that they did not see a reason to sell their
a) fundamentals they were holding trading at much below market PEs
b) these share never really had a run though they deserve a run ( never ran too far to make them overvalued in the forward valuations/growth context)
c) good share at loss

Ex:
If some one bought DIMO at Rs 1400-1500 , DIST at Rs 175-180 , RHL at Rs 60-65, RCL at Rs 150-155, Samp at Rs 230-240 we really cannot say they were overvalued or bad buys.( I am not promoting my portfolio though I have some of them at not the prices quoted). By the end of March quarter most these were trading with PE of 6-10 when market was in 20s. So why would someone sell them at loss ?

In a natural market correction we need to be more worried if we held overvalued junk right? But CSE is not behaving that way. Most times fundamentals loose more value than the junk shares in a down fall. Question is why did this happen.

There is something fundamentally wrong with our market behavior and thiking. We think and act on extremes and panic too much.


As far as I see, many hold junk going after the market trend and sell their fundamentals saying " what is the use of holding them". They started to sell non moving fundamentals to invest in more junk. One big reason for the further downfall is due to these irrational/immoral investment behaviors along with credit restrictions in place forcing them act even more drastically in crisis. Sometimes selling good shares at a loss is the only way out to get out of the mess they already in.


Well said slstock.
Correction was expected as you said but current political moves also damaging the CSE.
Plus the retail investors are not up to the mark psychologically to stand against the correction period,
which we had seen in the past, when minor corrections were took place.I do agree with you the present situation is unrealistic.
Still those who can invest have a good bargain in the market.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

samueldaniel7


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
i dont know to laugh or to cry,
you cant draw the graph on linear scale, when there is big % changes, always plot the graph on logarithmic scale, or u will not get the correct picture


"There are two methods for displaying the price scale along the y-axis: arithmetic and logarithmic. An arithmetic scale displays 10 points (or dollars) as the same vertical distance no matter what the price level. Each unit of measure is the same throughout the entire scale. If a stock advances from 10 to 80 over a 6-month period, the move from 10 to 20 will appear to be the same distance as the move from 70 to 80. Even though this move is the same in absolute terms, it is not the same in percentage terms.

A logarithmic scale measures price movements in percentage terms. An advance from 10 to 20 would represent an increase of 100%. An advance from 20 to 40 would also be 100%, as would an advance from 40 to 80. All three of these advances would appear as the same vertical distance on a logarithmic scale. Most charting programs refer to the logarithmic scale as a semi-log scale, because the time axis is still displayed arithmetically. "

Source >>http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:what_are_charts

http://samueldaniel7.blogspot.com

DJ solo

DJ solo
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
guyz il tell u... nothin is permanent.. neither the rise nor the fall... well anything which goes up tends to come down and anythn goes down will always hav a turn around.. i believe its not a great achievement to predict d fall but it is indeed an achievement to predict d rise.. just try to figure out the ryt time to enter instead of talking about what has already happened and im rely certain it is not too far away..Smile cheers! and wish u all the best..Smile

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
dear Solo

Sensing the big fall( Beginning of a bear market phase) early is the most important thing as the fall is the most painful thing. That is where you lose every thing. I sensed the fall and exit. I warned you too. I stuck to my principal and now safe with all my cash and profits.I started withdrawing my cash in last July. I did not go for investments since then. But did some short term trading.
Beginning of the rise is not too far away. We may start collecting gradually but not in full scale. If you collect now a little and market falls further it will not harm you as we are close to the bottom. U just have to hold. But if you bought at 8000 at still holding you have to wait ages to g\et a profit

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Further there should be some consolidation period before a rise. A quick U-turn triggered by a news or something will not be safe. Study the market cycle.

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Market cycle consists of rise> fall> consolidation (so on) . This is a continuous process. We may link various factors for a fall and a rise.

DJ solo

DJ solo
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@stockmate

bro no offence but do u think only u predicted the market would have a fall when it wz rising much in the beginning of this year? obviously evry single one who had invested in the market would know. but when?? is the question. thatz when u become a winner or a loser based on ur fundamentals and technicalz . im sure u have done ur part to clear ur portfolio way in advance. which was gud for u. yet any fall would not be permanent. u shud be able to grab when it takes the turn.. thatz what i said enuf cryin over the spoiled milk and think bout the ryt time to re enter...Smile i basically thought this thread was less informational..Smile cheers!! and best of luck to u...Smile

Sponsored content


Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 2]

Go to page : 1, 2  Next

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum