Yes there were few people like Tubal and Stockmate and others who predicted the fall. When ASI hit 7800 with most of the stocks being overvalued, there had to be a market correction if CSE was to sustain. It was needed and healthy.
But fall is only a fall if it becomes a reality as markets can carry on positive momentum for months. But at some point the reality need to happen. In our case that is exactly what happened and it happened due to many factors with the overvalued market being a prime reason (which badly needed a correction), macroeconomic factors, irrational/immoral speculative chasing by retailers (and getting money tied up in junk), immoral behaviors of the big boy to manipulate market , certain experiments conducted by authorities with no clear plan etc etc .
Now the question is are we over-correcting
as market has lost 1700 points from the Top and is trading around PE of 14-15. MPI is in more terrible state. If we take out the overvalued junk , market must be even more attractive as we find 5-10 PE counters with attractive pegs. The Forward market PE is probably even more attractive . Some of the then overvalued market giants like JKH,SPEN,CARS group, HNB also have showed relatively better profits while loosing it market share value to narrow down to a better valuation comparatively
. Speculative share with no fundamentals which went sky high like GREG group, REEF, EMER, EAST had also come down drastically. Now we are loosing day by days due to negative momentum and investor confidence and other facts. Are we still in a natural correction or a overreacted one due to external behaviors and factors. Ofcourse of there are still shares which have lot of room for downward correction . But why cannot they get corrected on their own? Do we need a whole market correction losing 1.5-2% a day until ASI hit 5500-5000.
In a good correction, over valued shares should get corrected while fundamentals should relatively hold it value. What was happening. Is it natural? More importantly why is it happening still? In any healthy market there should be sufficient green days along with the more red days. Green days are becoming harder to find now while drops are getting too severe. The only green days we saw was totally fake. There is something "fundamentally" wrong in our market behavior now.
But atleast I see thing are improving a little than before.
Let us hope for the best. Hope there will be bear market run ( temporary) soon. And hope this this blood bath does not happen.
Greed preceeds all in every case.. If you control greed, ur in a better position..
There is another side to this. It might be pure greed for some and for others it might be that they did not see a reason to sell their
a) fundamentals they were holding trading at much below market PEs
b) these share never really had a run though they deserve a run ( never ran too far to make them overvalued in the forward valuations/growth context)
c) good share at loss
If some one bought DIMO at Rs 1400-1500 , DIST at Rs 175-180 , RHL at Rs 60-65, RCL at Rs 150-155, Samp at Rs 230-240 we really cannot say they were overvalued or bad buys.( I am not promoting my portfolio though I have some of them at not the prices quoted). By the end of March quarter most these were trading with PE of 6-10 when market was in 20s. So why would someone sell them at loss ?
In a natural market correction we need to be more worried if we held overvalued junk right? But CSE is not behaving that way. Most times fundamentals loose more value than the junk shares in a down fall. Question is why did this happen.
There is something fundamentally wrong with our market behavior and thiking. We think and act on extremes and panic too much.
As far as I see, many hold junk going after the market trend and sell their fundamentals saying " what is the use of holding them". They started to sell non moving fundamentals to invest in more junk. One big reason for the further downfall is due to these irrational/immoral investment behaviors along with credit restrictions in place forcing them act even more drastically in crisis. Sometimes selling good shares at a loss is the only way out to get out of the mess they already in.