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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » I said this down trend months ago.Remember?

I said this down trend months ago.Remember?

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DJ solo


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
guyz il tell u... nothin is permanent.. neither the rise nor the fall... well anything which goes up tends to come down and anythn goes down will always hav a turn around.. i believe its not a great achievement to predict d fall but it is indeed an achievement to predict d rise.. just try to figure out the ryt time to enter instead of talking about what has already happened and im rely certain it is not too far away..Smile cheers! and wish u all the best..Smile

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
dear Solo

Sensing the big fall( Beginning of a bear market phase) early is the most important thing as the fall is the most painful thing. That is where you lose every thing. I sensed the fall and exit. I warned you too. I stuck to my principal and now safe with all my cash and profits.I started withdrawing my cash in last July. I did not go for investments since then. But did some short term trading.
Beginning of the rise is not too far away. We may start collecting gradually but not in full scale. If you collect now a little and market falls further it will not harm you as we are close to the bottom. U just have to hold. But if you bought at 8000 at still holding you have to wait ages to g\et a profit

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Further there should be some consolidation period before a rise. A quick U-turn triggered by a news or something will not be safe. Study the market cycle.

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Market cycle consists of rise> fall> consolidation (so on) . This is a continuous process. We may link various factors for a fall and a rise.

DJ solo


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@stockmate

bro no offence but do u think only u predicted the market would have a fall when it wz rising much in the beginning of this year? obviously evry single one who had invested in the market would know. but when?? is the question. thatz when u become a winner or a loser based on ur fundamentals and technicalz . im sure u have done ur part to clear ur portfolio way in advance. which was gud for u. yet any fall would not be permanent. u shud be able to grab when it takes the turn.. thatz what i said enuf cryin over the spoiled milk and think bout the ryt time to re enter...Smile i basically thought this thread was less informational..Smile cheers!! and best of luck to u...Smile

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Stockmate wrote: Market cycle consists of rise> fall> consolidation (so on) . This is a continuous process. We may link various factors for a fall and a rise.

Ok then tell us which stage are we now?
Can it go up with today's rise or go up and come down to 5800 or more?

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is how I act now
Just draw as many as 6 moving averages on a chart. Then u will get a moving averages ribbon. The ribbon is upside down. 200day MA on the top and 4 day MA in the bottom. All are moving downwards in unison. For the market to reverse(Rise) at least 4day 10 day and 30 day MAs should change position. 4day should move up cutting across the 10 day MA and 10 day MA should cut across the 30 day MA. No such signs yet.
When such happens we should pay attention other indicators.

Today's rise shows no good news to me.

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Look at these charts.
I am waiting till the 10 day MA crosses over the 30 day MA and 30 day MA shows the signs of crossing over the 50 day MA.
But if you are a long term investor ( 5 year and over) its time to jump and grab what u want

Carts here:
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon10.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon11.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon13.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon14.png

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Before the war victory the historic market top had been ASI 3000. Postwar bull market reached a historic top as as 8000 in lightening speed. The difference is 5000 units. I believe 50 % fall is reasonable in a big correction. 8000-2500= 5500.There is a support line also in 5500- 6000 range.
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/market11.jpg
See R1
So the market may reverse for good in the range between 5500 and 6000. So now we are close to the bottom or in the bottom. But there should be a little consolidation at the bottom. I do not trust in instant reversal.

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Any intelligent investor would have predicted November December situation accurately. CSE circulars, year end settlements, investment funds balancing their accounts end of the year, credit clearance, force selling, previous experiences and so on… those are well known facts, many were discussing about exit stratergies, with some losses , how to minimise them and so on.. if the investors who were here in this forum are ignorant of all these facts despite explaining them repeatedly in previous occasions what can the others do? Some of us learn every day from others posts…thanks everybody for giving up-to-date information…well known facts and there were nothing to hide….

bePositive

bePositive
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
i did too !

http://www.viabletraffic.com

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@lokuayya wrote:i had a wrong belief that fundamentally sound shares would hold.but it is not happening.all are crap.



MPI up and green again. fundamentaly strong stocks could recover..l

manula


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@lokuayya wrote:i had a wrong belief that fundamentally sound shares would hold.but it is not happening.all are crap.


Hope fundamental shares will be fine in long run ... (We will say this things and wait for the future with open eyes.. that the only thing we can do) Very Happy

ABEST


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
i think end of today market (ASI) will down by 2%

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Market is picking up again....hope green in the afternoon....

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Budget is simple. Only very few policy and tax changes. Main drawback for CSE is rupee depreciation, But it is already done and will be stabilized until next year. Other is tax hike for the light bill.

Budget is good for new and bulk investments

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I expected market to recover this week....

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@balapas wrote:Your prediction of market falling bellow 5000 can change if they reintroduce more credit facilities. However granting more credit can be the start of a bigger disaster.


Now think about how to achieve smooth and sustainable recovery...any suggestions….

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
now there are two similar posts .......may be now it is very easy to say that ......

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