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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Up Trend Trigger

Up Trend Trigger

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1Up Trend Trigger Empty Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:32 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
As CSE stands right now is in a bearish patch, it can be a prolong slide, but non of us can predict the bottom. However shall we talk about the possible triggers that could stop this slide and pull the markets up to a sustainable uptrend.

Corporate earnings are not going to resurrect the market, and its clear from the Q2 results. Even the companies with impressive results are sliding.

In my understanding some tax concessions granted through budget 12, or lowering of corporate tax rates can be a small trigger, at the same time I think re instating broker credits as it was before could also be another.

The expropriation law will certainly hurt foreign investments for a long time to come and could cost lot of money if sovereign credit ratings were down graded.

Some of the other triggers could be;
1) Better employment numbers in US
2) Resolution of debt crisis in EUR
3) Some Big local banks obtaining foreign financing
4) China devaluing its currency by 10-20%
5) What else?

2Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:47 pm

Deva


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
With my little understanding I would rate following as positive triggers.

1. Relaxation of credit rules
2. Cancellation of expropriation bill
3. Balance minded regulators to guide all stakeholders of the market

3Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:54 pm

DJ solo

DJ solo
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
i believe expropriation law is anyways a killer to all the investments coming from abroad. well it iz just not only about fitch!!! a simple man with a sufficient knowledge to run his life would be able to predict that and i juzt cant believe how could the govt officials with masters and doctorates degrees dont understand d fact!! dude whu would want the govt to interfere in ur business!! totally insane.. i believe thiz should be turned down for foreign investors to participate with peace of mind!!

and this is less effective to the stock market is concerned. since we run our market.. but i would like my Sri lanka to be d next Singapore or beyond that by developments.. so would thiz happen if foreign funds spin?? think Sri lanka..

4Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:05 pm

chamith

chamith
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
expropriation is the cause of all these mess. Market dont even respond to the most basic fundamental fact any market based on; earnings. Expropriation bill scaring away the investors.
If the government atleast revisit the bill and decide to take away the value for the lands that were given free, except taking over the whole business would be more sensible. This country is going to become like another Arabic country.

5Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 6:05 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@chamith wrote:expropriation is the cause of all these mess. Market dont even respond to the most basic fundamental fact any market based on; earnings. Expropriation bill scaring away the investors.
If the government atleast revisit the bill and decide to take away the value for the lands that were given free, except taking over the whole business would be more sensible. This country is going to become like another Arabic country.

ya,we have to stand up and do what libiyan ppl did to their controller Twisted Evil ,btw gadafi was better Smile

everything under f*** executive Mad

6Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 6:17 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Tiger wrote:

5) What else?


If Cairn Sri Lanka can discover an oil reserve exceed 10 bb in mannar basin, Yes whole this market will defa go up. Idea

(Sorry it was a dream).

I have no faith about the budget. Everything looks gloomy to me (short term).

7Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 6:29 pm

chamith

chamith
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@UKboy wrote:
@Tiger wrote:

5) What else?


If Cairn Sri Lanka can discover an oil reserve exceed 10 bb in mannar basin, Yes whole this market will defa go up. Idea

(Sorry it was a dream).

I have no faith about the budget. Everything looks gloomy to me (short term).

As i heard there is no oil. But there is gas.
first they said oil at its early stages. Now they found gas from its 2nd well.

8Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:39 pm

ninja


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
As someone rightly said, my dream is also finding Gas/Oil.......Smile

9Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:54 pm

FXX

FXX
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@UKboy wrote:
@Tiger wrote:

5) What else?


If Cairn Sri Lanka can discover an oil reserve exceed 10 bb in mannar basin, Yes whole this market will defa go up. Idea
Then EU and USA will bomb SL saying we are doing human rights violations, either way we are fuc*d up

10Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:04 pm

kumudu


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Sura kema saha balen kadawada genima thamai hetuwa lokuma

11Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:05 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
we just need to abolish unnecessary rules and regulations imposed by SEC after 2010 August. After 2010 August, market had been always sluggish.

12Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:12 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Tiger wrote:
3) Some Big local banks obtaining foreign financing


The local bank credit capacity is not sufficient to keep the economy moving at 8% in the absence of FDI. Definitely FDI will suffer massively with the expropriation bill. Therefore the local banks will have to fund the expansion in the economy. Only way that could be done is by way of obtaining foreign funding by local banks.

If that happens, the GDP growth will be sustained over next decade resulting better corporate earning.

13Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:15 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:we just need to abolish unnecessary rules and regulations imposed by SEC after 2010 August. After 2010 August, market had been always sluggish.

This comment has seen many times. Can you be specific as to what rules should be relaxed.

14Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:19 pm

bePositive

bePositive
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Only Trigger would be the Day that the govt. assures investors, NO MORE govt, takeovers (Nationalization) of companies !

http://www.viabletraffic.com

15Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:33 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@bePositive wrote:Only Trigger would be the Day that the govt. assures investors, NO MORE govt, takeovers (Nationalization) of companies !

Interesting comment, how this assurance should be given? By way of changing the constitution, reversing the new law, swarring in front of God, I cant figure out how.

16Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:36 pm

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Everyday down! new IPOs coming together! hmm.... I cannot think about a positive in this crazy market. NOTHING to do now. Only have to wait. Sleep Evil or Very Mad Mad

17Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:40 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Tiger wrote:
@bePositive wrote:Only Trigger would be the Day that the govt. assures investors, NO MORE govt, takeovers (Nationalization) of companies !

Interesting comment, how this assurance should be given? By way of changing the constitution, reversing the new law, swarring in front of God, I cant figure out how.

Well said Tiger, I have the same view.Who can trust these statements without proper legislation.

18Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:48 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
When blaming the government please do not forget that they have end the 30 year lasted war.
I do not agree the way government behave now.But this is not the Lybia or MR is not Gaddhafi.

19Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:54 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Since the discussion is casual.... "heard" that price of JKH and a few other counters are being adjusted to suit the entry of a large institutional investor..... I am hoping that is the big FDI input that Cabraal said would be coming in December.
Wish you all a merry Christmas and a happy New Year Smile

20Up Trend Trigger Empty Re: Up Trend Trigger Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:07 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Shangri-la will have to bring in some dollars next year to start building together with Sheraton. Government will sell some of the under utilised assets and make a buck. Banks expected to borrow abroad! Casino zone coming up aswell attracting foreign investment.

Imports will grow slower than this year and exports may grow faster than this year. This may help us to some extent next year. And for sure we will see another sovereign dollar bond with sri lankan labour money from Middle east!

I feel next rally will start with bank and finance!

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t12722-sri-lanka-orders-banks-to-bring-in-cheap-foreign-money#83698

Cheers!

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