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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » ASI Should be 8000

ASI Should be 8000

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21ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:08 am

Rapaport


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The market forward PE for 2012E is between 10-11X if companies grow between 25-30%. Our economic growth is quite impressive and we must hope the Western Economic crisis recovers so the global economy moves smoothly. This will ensure some FDI for us.

Next year couple of major hotels will start building and they will bring in FDI for this. Banks are going to borrow abroad and bring in more dollars. There is plenty of land in Colombo identified for development and with the picking up of few projects more foreigners will get attracted.

When looking at the market, it is well poised now. Trading at around trailing14-14.2X if you take Sept results into account and CSE mentions 15.7X but without taking September results into consideration. These are good valuations for emerging markets.

With market projected to be trading at forward 10-11X we can expect the market to pick and move towards a safe 8500-9000 points over the next year easily provided domestic and Global conditions remain stable/improve.

This can be justified by the fact that there are good valuable companies trading between 6-10X and their prices will pick up with their staggering growth. I feel the rally will be driven by banks and finance sector with attractive 2011E earning and future growth prospects. My only fear is that when a sector does well, the government pokes its finger there. So lets wait till the budget tomorrow to see.

Currently over the last week valuable low PE high good growth fundamental stocks were on the top of turnover list indicating intelligent investors collecting these stocks.

When there is a diamond (CSE emerging market with good future value) on the floor, very soon someone will spot it!

Cheers!

22ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:09 am

Soundchips


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Roboticfx wrote:If charts show the trend of the market correctly we should follow them. But the problem is it doesn't happen as we think. But your effort is worthy. However, this is the dream of all. One day it will be a real. But we cannot predict that day! We don't have that ability.

I wish market remain green...

23ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:38 am

nkuda


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
As I believe first, ASI should break 6500 with good volumes and turnover , For a bullish sign.



Last edited by nkuda on Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

24ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:23 pm

bakapandithaya


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Will wait to break 6500, then we will see what will happen

25ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:08 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@bakapandithaya wrote:Will wait to break 6500, then we will see what will happen

After that sustainable growth. Cheers

26ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:28 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Anyway new money should come to the market if we want to see a significant growth.Most of the existing investers have invested all of their money and most are at great loss.So they are waiting for market to go up.

27ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:46 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Initially ASI will thread upwards on low volume and there will be herd sentiment and others will follow with gradual increase in turnover.

Cheers!

28ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:16 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rijayasooriya wrote:Anyway new money should come to the market if we want to see a significant growth.Most of the existing investers have invested all of their money and most are at great loss.So they are waiting for market to go up.

I have a different view rijaye, I dont think that the system has no money to invest further. As we all are aware many large and middle size investors/traders are just watching what is happening in the market. They will enter the market very soon at the correct time . Now budget is over. In fact new budget aims further investment in infrasructure and Social development. These proposals would create/increase demand for commodities and Economy would be definetely expanded. So all money which are idling in rich ppl's hand would invest in Agriculture, Industry and servicves. Hence I dont think that there is a problem of shortage of funds to invest in stock market. Only thing is investor confidence. Hope govt. will take effective action to encourage investment in order to achive the Budget targets..

29ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:20 pm

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
one day market would sustain.... waiting..

30ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 10:04 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rajaraam wrote:
@rijayasooriya wrote:Anyway new money should come to the market if we want to see a significant growth.Most of the existing investers have invested all of their money and most are at great loss.So they are waiting for market to go up.

I have a different view rijaye, I dont think that the system has no money to invest further. As we all are aware many large and middle size investors/traders are just watching what is happening in the market. They will enter the market very soon at the correct time . Now budget is over. In fact new budget aims further investment in infrasructure and Social development. These proposals would create/increase demand for commodities and Economy would be definetely expanded. So all money which are idling in rich ppl's hand would invest in Agriculture, Industry and servicves. Hence I dont think that there is a problem of shortage of funds to invest in stock market. Only thing is investor confidence. Hope govt. will take effective action to encourage investment in order to achive the Budget targets..
That is why I have written 'most of the existing investers'....not all of the investers Rajaraam.

31ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Mon Nov 21, 2011 10:21 pm

Genting


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Stagnating market will not attract new investments. There should be some stimulus given to the market and make it running. Once it start to running, new investments will come in and replace the stimulus.

We can't say that foreign funds don't invest when our market is over valued. For an example please see market summary given bellow.
ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Cse_2011

I'm waiting patiently to see another day like this.... soon.ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Moz-screenshot

32ASI Should be 8000 - Page 2 Empty Re: ASI Should be 8000 Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:08 am

ssuni

ssuni
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rajaraam wrote:
@rijayasooriya wrote:Anyway new money should come to the market if we want to see a significant growth.Most of the existing investers have invested all of their money and most are at great loss.So they are waiting for market to go up.

I have a different view rijaye, I dont think that the system has no money to invest further. As we all are aware many large and middle size investors/traders are just watching what is happening in the market. They will enter the market very soon at the correct time . Now budget is over. In fact new budget aims further investment in infrasructure and Social development. These proposals would create/increase demand for commodities and Economy would be definetely expanded. So all money which are idling in rich ppl's hand would invest in Agriculture, Industry and servicves. Hence I dont think that there is a problem of shortage of funds to invest in stock market. Only thing is investor confidence. Hope govt. will take effective action to encourage investment in order to achive the Budget targets..

Agree with you..

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