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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » AAIC.. where is it heading??

AAIC.. where is it heading??

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1AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty AAIC.. where is it heading?? Sat Nov 26, 2011 10:48 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
According to the following news, ACAP had 70.95% in AAIC in aug 2010;
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/1981282563476_363.pdf

As per the following news, ACAP had sold its 30.2% & its subsidiary's 22.97% holding, total of 53.17% of AAIC to SHL. for a whooping 2.3Bn..(120/- per share)
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/5981313138092_363.pdf

Let's dig into the history....................

on March 2010, Fast Gain Int'nal had bouhgt 4.83Mn or 19.35% AAIC shares @ 50/- each. from Mr. K,D,D,P + Vallibel Leisure + Vallibel Investments.

Then in August 2010, This Fast Gain Int'nal had sold 3Mn shares (10% of holding) @ 57 to Asia Fort Sri Lanka Direct Investment Fund.

30th Sep 2010 - AAIC announces a right issue and on 26th Oct 2010 they announced the dates and proptions.
One (01) new ordinary share for every two (02) shares held @ Rs.65/- each.

5th January 2011 - 12,500,000 Ordinary Shares of the Company were listed pursuant to a 1:2 Rights Issue.

15 February 2011 - Rs.3.00 per share / Final Dividend

So 12th August the news - SHL acquiring 73.53% of AAIC (53.16% from ACAP & 20.36% from Fast Gain Int')

On 16th Sep 2011, Mr. A K P appointed as the chairperson of AAIC.

The mandatory offer made @ 120 by Softlogic Capital was acceped by RPC group (25% holding)

On 21 Nov 2011, AAIC disposing 4.49Mns shares held by LWL @ 112.5.
As of 30 Sep 2010, AAIC had no LWL shares..

As of 31 Dec 2010, AAIC had 0.33Mn (0.74%) shares of LWL.
From October LWL price had a range of 103-95 then in 2010 Dec 31 LWL hit 140 high and closed @ 138.9
2011 Feb 8 LWL hit 187 high and closed at 180.5.
They announced a Capitalization of 1 for 5 held and on XD date of 9 Feb, the share price of LWL fell to 160s.
And again price rose to 180s in few days and finally started the declining trend since April 2011..

AAIC..  where is it heading?? Lwl_ch10

But as of 31, March 2011, 30 June 2011 and 30 Sep 2011, AAIC had 4.96Mn (9.1%) of LWL.

So they've incresed this from 0.74% to 9.1% during 01 Jan - 31 Mrach 2011 period..
That's in a range of 138-176 from the lowest and high ends..

On 18th Nov, 5.52 Mn shares had traded between 97.9 - 106 then on 21st only 4500 shares..
So the LWL trade was done on 18th as per a pre arranged deal at a price of 112/-

But as you can see, their min buying price could've been 138 and even if they recieved the bonus shares, still this could've gone to around 125-130 with the shares averaging to the earlier qty they had..

Disposing a massive quantity like 5498880 shares @ 112 is at least 10-18 rupees loss a share if so.. Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

5498880 shares * 10 = 54 Mn loss
5498880 shares * 18 = 98.9Mn loss

And this is the minimum?????????

Lets see the share price fluctuations after 16th September 2011, which was the day Mr. A K P appointed as the chair person of the AAIC.

AAIC..  where is it heading?? Aaic10

On Sep 20th, Share price of AAIC rose by 49.5% to close @ 187.3 from 120 level trading 314K shares. That was the starting of colelction and it went to 233.8 by 28th Sep, just in 6 trading days.
On 29th Sep, it shot up to a close of 350.6 (50%) increase trading 687K shares.

Then on Oct 4th, it went up to a high of 4.5 and closed @ 360 trading just 46K shares. Again time to time we saw mini single day rallies and dipped to 180.2 on Nov 16th.
Interestingly the next day it traded 10K shares at a low of 121.7 and a high of 195 closing at 187.8.. See the volatility of the stock..

As of 24th nov, AAIC share dipped to 176.5 tradin just 1300 shares..

Financials of LWL;
AAIC..  where is it heading?? Lwl_6_10

Financials of AAIC;
AAIC..  where is it heading?? Aaic_f10

Financials indicated as per 30th June AAIC was a loss making company..

Note : Thanks for cse.alpha for his initial findings.. Wink Becuz of his post only I checked this..

Access cse.alpha's post on here;
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t8572-aaic-has-10-of-lwl-at-30th-june-2011?highlight=aaic

2AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty Re: AAIC.. where is it heading?? Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:57 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
102 views but no comments.. geez.. u gotta be kidding me.. Evil or Very Mad

This reminds me there's no value for any analysis anymore..

3AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty Re: AAIC.. where is it heading?? Sun Nov 27, 2011 6:13 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Good analysis Small. There is nothing much to add further as you have done a good job.


The only thing I can think of AAIC selling LWL at this level is due cash situation of SHL. LWL is not a bad share at all specially to sell at this stage. But guess there could underlying credit issues and the need to sell LWL.

As for the future of AAIC, we need to wait until december report to see its fundamental direction. But SHL hold 98.5 % of AAIC now after RICH sell out. AAIC is extremely illiquid. Guess this can be manipulated to whims if someone wants too.

Right now based on fundamental the price is overvalued ( around Rs 170). But fundamentals still does not have big value at CSE.


4AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty Re: AAIC.. where is it heading?? Sun Nov 27, 2011 6:15 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:102 views but no comments.. geez.. u gotta be kidding me.. Evil or Very Mad

This reminds me there's no value for any analysis anymore..
small, though I didn't comment, it's a really good post. I wonder why Mr Pathirage was in hurry to sell with the huge loss. Presently LWL is trading below Rs 100/-, which looks very attractive.

5AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty Re: AAIC.. where is it heading?? Sun Nov 27, 2011 6:34 pm

monash

monash
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
small don't get discourage mate! I appreciate your effort and commitment! keep up your good work! i'm a fan of your technical analysis.. Very Happy

I just bought AAIC only once on beginning of it's 1st run before it manipulate to untouchable levels. I sold it on 2nd day of it's run. Since then i had no interest about it. It's just another overvalued junk stock for me now Wink

6AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty Re: AAIC.. where is it heading?? Sun Nov 27, 2011 8:41 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Guys.. this is what I want..
Some of you may have followed these shares in rallies.. May have done some home work to identify the trends too..

So I want ur views of on whats happening really in this game Wink

As Slstock said, fundamentals have no value now, whoever identify the jargon and make it up can make some money.. For investments.. there's more time to buy dirt cheap I think Wink

Thanks for your views..

7AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty Re: AAIC.. where is it heading?? Mon Nov 28, 2011 8:27 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Guys.. this is what I want..
Some of you may have followed these shares in rallies.. May have done some home work to identify the trends too..

So I want ur views of on whats happening really in this game Wink

As Slstock said, fundamentals have no value now, whoever identify the jargon and make it up can make some money.. For investments.. there's more time to buy dirt cheap I think Wink

Thanks for your views..

Excellent work small. Thanks for sharing

8AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty Re: AAIC.. where is it heading?? Mon Nov 28, 2011 3:33 pm

amilaela

amilaela
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
smllville can you tell me that how to find AAIC share value from your income statement..?

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001851586843

9AAIC..  where is it heading?? Empty Re: AAIC.. where is it heading?? Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:54 am

Azthama

Azthama
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Good analysis smallville Very Happy

@slstock wrote:
AAIC is extremely illiquid. Guess this can be manipulated to whims if someone wants too.

Right now based on fundamental the price is overvalued ( around Rs 170). But fundamentals still does not have big value at CSE.




Looks like still they haven't submitted Dec a/c.
It's clear that there public holding is very law, it's nearly 1.41% according to the June A/C,,Currently SHL holding 53% of the company.Even the share price fly to Rs 300.00 SHL did not dispose any of it. I hope SHL may not dispose at current price level. Correct me if i'm wrong.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/364_1313665006.pdf

You guys think, share price is still overvalued?

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