Plantations are going down

Why?
What happen to MADU 70
KGAL,HOPL,KOTA
WHEN PLANTATION RALLY STARTS

mjrocker wrote:Why?
What happen to MADU 70
KGAL,HOPL,KOTA
WHEN PLANTATION RALLY STARTS

Where have you been?
Plantations rallied hugely from december to january. Check the charts some of them are trading 50 - 100% above their November lows. What remains is for them to lose most of those gains with the coming wage hike.

tubal wrote:

mjrocker wrote:Why?
What happen to MADU 70
KGAL,HOPL,KOTA
WHEN PLANTATION RALLY STARTS

Where have you been?
Plantations rallied hugely from december to january. Check the charts some of them are trading 50 - 100% above their November lows. What remains is for them to lose most of those gains with the coming wage hike.

wage hike may not going to result badly in companies which have more rubber and oil palms......Tea oriented companies will be affected....

*Palm oil prices rose by over 166% since
December 2008 to US $ 1,171.22 per
metric ton in December 2010. Prices have
been further supported by rising crude
oil prices which also rose nearly 117%
during the same period.

*rubber--Robust economic growth in China, the biggest consumer of Natural Rubber is a key driver of prices. There is mounting concern that supply from Indonesia and Thailand
won’t keep pace with rising Chinese demand with its high vehicle and tyre production.
The rubber prices at the Colombo auctions rose this year with RSS1 prices climbing to a high of Rs. 511 per kg in December from Rs. 339 at the beginning of CY10. However,
average price per kg amounted to Rs. 403 per kg. Rubber production, on the other hand,
is believed to have reached 150 million kgs in 2010, the highest ever production compared
to the previous high of 137 million kgs recorded in 2009. Given the large imbalance
between global supply and demand as economies recover coupled with rising oil prices

tubal wrote:

mjrocker wrote:Why?
What happen to MADU 70
KGAL,HOPL,KOTA
WHEN PLANTATION RALLY STARTS

Where have you been?
Plantations rallied hugely from december to january. Check the charts some of them are trading 50 - 100% above their November lows. What remains is for them to lose most of those gains with the coming wage hike.

The wage hike drama is no more than a knee jerk reaction by people who have missed the boat last year to collect the better plantations and are trying to collect them low. The Wage hike even if it happens by a large amount is only for the tea estates. So Plantations like KEGAL, AGAL who are mostly rubber and oil palm centric hardly get affected! these are merely just two plantations and once the big guns collect enough plantation from idiots who panic sell specially towards coming month the really will start!
People will then have to stare at these shares like they did towards the poultry stocks!

I think some plantations are getting unfairly 'punished' by this market. for example KGAL is worth at least 270. it's coming down sharply because people who buy plantation stocks are trigger happy

mono wrote:I think some plantations are getting unfairly 'punished' by this market. for example KGAL is worth at least 270. it's coming down sharply because people who buy plantation stocks are trigger happy

Mono, where were you? I didn't see you in the forum last two days! :(

Rajitha wrote:

tubal wrote:

mjrocker wrote:Why?
What happen to MADU 70
KGAL,HOPL,KOTA
WHEN PLANTATION RALLY STARTS

Where have you been?
Plantations rallied hugely from december to january. Check the charts some of them are trading 50 - 100% above their November lows. What remains is for them to lose most of those gains with the coming wage hike.

The wage hike drama is no more than a knee jerk reaction by people who have missed the boat last year to collect the better plantations and are trying to collect them low. The Wage hike even if it happens by a large amount is only for the tea estates. So Plantations like KEGAL, AGAL who are mostly rubber and oil palm centric hardly get affected! these are merely just two plantations and once the big guns collect enough plantation from idiots who panic sell specially towards coming month the really will start!
People will then have to stare at these shares like they did towards the poultry stocks!

On the contrary, the real situation is that plantation shares have appreciated far in excess of the earnings growth that they have shown. For example, AGAL, that you mentioned above has bare minimal growth. It's true that rubber plantations will not be effected as much as tea plantations but the commodity prices dropping is still a risk.

In a market that's showing clear signs of weakness, it's too much of a risk to buy plantations that have appreciated in a huge way in recent times. For example, KOTA is trading 141% higher than the November 29 price. But their last quarter earnings have actually shrunk!

I do agree with Mono however that not all plantations are over valued, but many of them are. KGAL for example has grown 47% since November 29. Their YoY earnings growth is also about that much. (note: I don't own any KGAL)

I think plantation stocks are going to there base level
KGAL is very attractive at current price

tubal wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

tubal wrote:

mjrocker wrote:Why?
What happen to MADU 70
KGAL,HOPL,KOTA
WHEN PLANTATION RALLY STARTS

Where have you been?
Plantations rallied hugely from december to january. Check the charts some of them are trading 50 - 100% above their November lows. What remains is for them to lose most of those gains with the coming wage hike.

The wage hike drama is no more than a knee jerk reaction by people who have missed the boat last year to collect the better plantations and are trying to collect them low. The Wage hike even if it happens by a large amount is only for the tea estates. So Plantations like KEGAL, AGAL who are mostly rubber and oil palm centric hardly get affected! these are merely just two plantations and once the big guns collect enough plantation from idiots who panic sell specially towards coming month the really will start!
People will then have to stare at these shares like they did towards the poultry stocks!

On the contrary, the real situation is that plantation shares have appreciated far in excess of the earnings growth that they have shown. For example, AGAL, that you mentioned above has bare minimal growth. It's true that rubber plantations will not be effected as much as tea plantations but the commodity prices dropping is still a risk.

In a market that's showing clear signs of weakness, it's too much of a risk to buy plantations that have appreciated in a huge way in recent times. For example, KOTA is trading 141% higher than the November 29 price. But their last quarter earnings have actually shrunk!

I do agree with Mono however that not all plantations are over valued, but many of them are. KGAL for example has grown 47% since November 29. Their YoY earnings growth is also about that much. (note: I don't own any KGAL)

Just because something appreciated does not mean it is still at a right price! What the hell kind of argument is that ? For example poultry stock like BFL did not stay at Rs 50s but hit rs 400 which was over 2000% increase in short period of time! Also in AGAL case they were affected by there huge palm oil crops and the replanting they are doing begs to differ you points! Not to mention plantations like HOPL which are trading at like forward PE of like 3!

Rajitha wrote:
Just because something appreciated does not mean it is still at a right price! What the hell kind of argument is that ? For example poultry stock like BFL did not stay at Rs 50s but hit rs 400 which was over 2000% increase in short period of time! Also in AGAL case they were affected by there huge palm oil crops and the replanting they are doing begs to differ you points! Not to mention plantations like HOPL which are trading at like forward PE of like 3!

Rajitha, you are showing your hand. If it's not earnings growth (or prospects of earnings growth) what else on earth should be the basis of a price rise? Are you saying prices should go up like WAPO for no reason?

I am no fan of BFL but I (and you) have to admit that they did have massive growth. 8 fold increase in earnings. So 8 fold increase in price is justified.

BFL was 50 a long time ago. The BFL price rise over the last quarter is about 100% - which neatly matches the 80% or so QoQ growth shown by that share. BFL did go upto 500 - (unsustainable levels in my opinion) before coming down to more realistic levels.

tubal wrote:

Rajitha, you are showing your hand. If it's not earnings growth (or prospects of earnings growth) what else on earth should be the basis of a price rise? Are you saying prices should go up like WAPO for no reason?

I am no fan of BFL but I (and you) have to admit that they did have massive growth. 8 fold increase in earnings. So 8 fold increase in price is justified.

BFL was 50 a long time ago. The BFL price rise over the last quarter is about 100% - which neatly matches the 80% or so QoQ growth shown by that share. BFL did go upto 500 - (unsustainable levels in my opinion) before coming down to more realistic levels.

What the hell is that me showing my hand thing ? lol . I have always been upfront about what I say and you can check from my old posts. So ofc I always show my hand. I'm saying the prices should go up because of the PE ratio, PEG ratio and the developments+ the ever increasing commodity prices that is said to exist for the coming 15-20 years ( rubber+ pal oil ).

I have already posted about the type of stocks that have shown incredible performances that is poised to set incredible results and who already have. I can't be bothered to write another easy trying to explain to people who are so stubborn and too naive. As I have posted before saying you will see in one months time when I mentioned some stocks will rise I'm saying some of these plantation stocks will more than double their stock prices by the next year. Just believe it or not its up to you. Its your cash and all I ever asked was just to do some proper research about the shares than join the bandwagon thats lead by some brokers!

Rajitha wrote:

tubal wrote:

Rajitha, you are showing your hand. If it's not earnings growth (or prospects of earnings growth) what else on earth should be the basis of a price rise? Are you saying prices should go up like WAPO for no reason?

I am no fan of BFL but I (and you) have to admit that they did have massive growth. 8 fold increase in earnings. So 8 fold increase in price is justified.

BFL was 50 a long time ago. The BFL price rise over the last quarter is about 100% - which neatly matches the 80% or so QoQ growth shown by that share. BFL did go upto 500 - (unsustainable levels in my opinion) before coming down to more realistic levels.

What the hell is that me showing my hand thing ? lol . I have always been upfront about what I say and you can check from my old posts. So ofc I always show my hand. I'm saying the prices should go up because of the PE ratio, PEG ratio and the developments+ the ever increasing commodity prices that is said to exist for the coming 15-20 years ( rubber+ pal oil ).

I have already posted about the type of stocks that have shown incredible performances that is poised to set incredible results and who already have. I can't be bothered to write another easy trying to explain to people who are so stubborn and too naive. As I have posted before saying you will see in one months time when I mentioned some stocks will rise I'm saying some of these plantation stocks will more than double their stock prices by the next year. Just believe it or not its up to you. Its your cash and all I ever asked was just to do some proper research about the shares than join the bandwagon thats lead by some brokers!

You haven't answered my question: "If it's not earnings growth (or prospects of earnings growth) what else on earth should be the basis of a price rise?"

What happens when price increases are not inline with earnings growth?

Oh and for the record, the negative rep to rajitha is not from me (I think rajitha can contact the admin to confirm this, if he so wishes)

Looking at KGAL, it has come down to 220s again and I see it worth more than 250 now as they have a good growth potential..

2009 belongs to HOTEL SECTOR
2010 belongs to BANKS AND FINANCE SECTOR
2011 might be the year of PLANTATION SECTOR

tubal wrote:

mjrocker wrote:Why?
What happen to MADU 70
KGAL,HOPL,KOTA
WHEN PLANTATION RALLY STARTS

Where have you been?
Plantations rallied hugely from december to january. Check the charts some of them are trading 50 - 100% above their November lows. What remains is for them to lose most of those gains with the coming wage hike.

Not all plantations are overvalued or undervalued!
Not all plantations are severely affecting by the wage hike!
There are counters which will give above average prospects in coming qtrs

Intelligent inverters should identify which has the potential and wise versa.

talking the entire plantation sector as a one and discouraging based on wage hike or december-january rallies are meaningless.

dhamm wrote:

Not all plantations are overvalued or undervalued!
Not all plantations are severely affecting by the wage hike!
There are counters which will give above average prospects in coming qtrs

Intelligent inverters should identify which has the potential and wise versa.

talking the entire plantation sector as a one and discouraging based on wage hike or december-january rallies are meaningless.

Dhamm have you noticed the words some in my original comment?

tubal wrote:

dhamm wrote:

Not all plantations are overvalued or undervalued!
Not all plantations are severely affecting by the wage hike!
There are counters which will give above average prospects in coming qtrs

Intelligent inverters should identify which has the potential and wise versa.

talking the entire plantation sector as a one and discouraging based on wage hike or december-january rallies are meaningless.

Dhamm have you noticed the words some in my original comment?

Yep. noted before even posting. But what was the message you were trying to give?? better read between lines.

dhamm wrote:

tubal wrote:

dhamm wrote:

Not all plantations are overvalued or undervalued!
Not all plantations are severely affecting by the wage hike!
There are counters which will give above average prospects in coming qtrs

Intelligent inverters should identify which has the potential and wise versa.

talking the entire plantation sector as a one and discouraging based on wage hike or december-january rallies are meaningless.

Dhamm have you noticed the words some in my original comment?

Yep. noted before even posting. But what was the message you were trying to give?? better read between lines.

The message I was trying to deliver is exactly that. Plantations rallied hugely from december to january. Check the charts some of them are trading 50 - 100% above their November lows. What remains is for them to lose most of those gains with the coming wage hike.

Not the word some again.