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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Are you still in trouble?

Are you still in trouble?

Go to page : 1, 2  Next

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1Are you still in trouble? Empty Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:48 pm

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I am not. I believed in my technicals. I followed them and took action at the correct time. I reveled them in this forum. But some gave me a nasty dressing down. So am not publishing ay thing i this forum. My technicals saved me so far.

2Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:54 pm

aj


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Then why did you publish this?

3Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:53 pm

nkalansu


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Are you based on Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis?

4Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:00 pm

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/asinex10.png

5Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:04 pm

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I have simplified the story with above chart. A bear market rally is imminent. You will get a chance to recover losses/Minimize losses and exit. There is always people to jump in to trouble. So they will buy your shares

6Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:10 pm

gaya


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Anyone can proved past using technicals like astrologists do.. If u are so talented mention here wt will happen next 2 months... when we can have old gold days..??

7Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:20 pm

aj


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thank you for posting.
I wanted ask somebody who know technicals, how does these support lines etc. work with "good news". For example when there is a credit relaxation, rule change, SEC removal, etc the market moves up due to that and back down again. How does those things work with techincals?

I haven't checked anything but do those bull runs coincide with good news?

By the way there is a bull run just before the yellow rectangle too. Is it different?

8Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:41 pm

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Very informative Stockmate. + reps...

The graph was a super effort by you and I agree, however I feel that this bear run will not fall to the support level around 5600-5700. Instead it might bounce off at the same level as the previous low (between 5800 and 5900) and show a double dip chart pattern. This might be temporary as I'm taking into account any sporadic bouts of buying that may take place end of this year and the start of the next.

You may be right about two more bear market rallies, I don't really have an opinion about that. However given how each bear run is longer than the last...this could be a steeper fall if and until volumes and buying returns to the market.

9Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:43 pm

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Technicals do not work with "news" per se. How news affects the market translates into buying momentum and volumes which are measurable quantities which can be interpreted by technical analysis. The problem being that, they are as open to interpretation as reading a company's financials or debating how solvent a company is.

10Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:54 pm

amilaela

amilaela
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
thankssssssssss

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001851586843

11Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:59 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks for posting Stockmate.

I will just wait another 12 days and see what will happen. According to me only factor that can cause a another bear run is escalation of Europe crisis. I think such factors cannot be predicted in a technical analysis.

I think there is more room for ASI to drop given the fact that there are many overvalued counters, but still there are good companies up for grabs at fairly good value. So at the moment I am more concerned about the companies earnings quality than the market direction.

Over past one month I have increased my PF by 3 times. I think all value investors should not be worried into getting into positions now. The downside risk is very minimal compared to upside potential when compared with 6months back.

12Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:46 pm

prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Tiger wrote:Thanks for posting Stockmate.

I will just wait another 12 days and see what will happen. According to me only factor that can cause a another bear run is escalation of Europe crisis. I think such factors cannot be predicted in a technical analysis.

I think there is more room for ASI to drop given the fact that there are many overvalued counters, but still there are good companies up for grabs at fairly good value. So at the moment I am more concerned about the companies earnings quality than the market direction.

Over past one month I have increased my PF by 3 times. I think all value investors should not be worried into getting into positions now. The downside risk is very minimal compared to upside potential when compared with 6months back.
Bearish tiger always coming with negative things.Isn't your bags full yet??????????????????????

13Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:18 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
[quote="prabath"]
@Tiger wrote:Thanks for posting Stockmate.
Bearish tiger always coming with negative things.Isn't your bags full yet??????????????????????

LOL, in fact I have been bearish some time back, now changing the course that is why I said I have increased my PF dramatically. What I have been telling all this time is that ASI around 6000 is value for money BUT NOT FOR ALL COUNTERS. There is lot of noise and biased analysis in the market so I have been cautioning as I understand the situation.

I am neutral on the market direction at the moment and I don't believe the market to hit 6500 anytime soon. As I understand market need only TIME not credit or rule changes, any changes right now will be detrimental to long term health of the Mkt.

More importantly I am looking at EU developments since any escalation can cause the whole world to a grinding halt. In such an event I don't know where would CSE end up, remember we still depend on Tourism to pick up to justify Hotel sector high valuations.

@Tiger wrote: I am clearing my PF...
by Tiger on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:30 pm
I am clearing even my long term counters and moving to defensive stocks. The whole world is gearing for a global slowdown and SL may not be immune to that. Current market valuations are not up for value for money.


I am not always negative my friend, if you go back to my earlier posts in June'11 you can see that I was expecting a prolong bull run towards 2012-2015. But any artificial interventions will temporarily up the market and will kill it long term.

And finally my bag is not full as yet, happy hunting like a real tiger.

14Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:31 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Interesting Stockmate. I like your analysis.

15Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:53 pm

gaya


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@gaya wrote:Anyone can proved past using technicals like astrologists do.. If u are so talented mention here wt will happen to ASI in next 2 months... when we can have old gold days (ASI above 7000)..??

@ stockmate no answer for me... Waiting for you...

16Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:14 pm

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
good one stockmate, please keep posting your analysis

@raa the ASI did fall to 5700 before the market was halt

17Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:03 pm

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Gamaya
Find and read my previous posts. Then you will find that I had predicted the present situations months ago. I have told earlier that I started emptying my PF since last June. By August I had nothing in my PF. I did only some swing trading. Administrators may help to find my old posts.

The market is falling at a rate of about 125 ASI units per month. Then in two months the support will be 5800-250= 5650. In six months it will be around 5100. The peak in the next bear market rally will be around 6400-6600. It differ with time.
Now the market has corrected enough. But lot of factors keeping the investor confidence down.
Technicals help us to play safely not accurately. You can not technically analyse today and depend on it for months. Technicals always change. You have to analyze again and again and see the movement.
Things may change any moment.
If you are a long term investor it is time to collect.

18Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:06 pm

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Gamaya
Read my previous post about Twisting of Moving Average Ribbon. I don't know how to find old posts

19Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Thu Dec 15, 2011 7:30 pm

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t7270-most-critical-time-for-ushttp://forum.srilankaequity.com/t7270-most-critical-time-for-us

ttp://forum.srilankaequity.com/t7218-what-may-be-the-bottom

https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/market11.jpg
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon10.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon11.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon13.png
https://i.servimg.com/u/f46/16/66/37/07/ribbon14.png

20Are you still in trouble? Empty Re: Are you still in trouble? Fri Dec 16, 2011 12:00 am

manula


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good post Stockkmate it is very good. No one can predict any thing happen according to news. It is a probabilty only. So graph will give the technical idea. (theory and practical)

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