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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Will there be any Force Selling again

Will there be any Force Selling again

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1Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:23 pm

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
even though we all were expecting a relaxation of credit rules, which is not happening, at least for this year. Does this mean that all brokers will have to settle their credit before ending this year? which would lead to force selling by them. If this is the case when do you guys think this would take place? I know my post is negative but I think this is the reason for low volumes.

bakapandithaya

bakapandithaya
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Light of Hope wrote:even though we all were expecting a relaxation of credit rules, which is not happening, at least for this year. Does this mean that all brokers will have to settle their credit before ending this year? which would lead to force selling by them. If this is the case when do you guys think this would take place? I know my post is negative but I think this is the reason for low volumes.

again Shocked

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Light of Hope wrote:even though we all were expecting a relaxation of credit rules, which is not happening, at least for this year. Does this mean that all brokers will have to settle their credit before ending this year? which would lead to force selling by them. If this is the case when do you guys think this would take place? I know my post is negative but I think this is the reason for low volumes.

You have a good sense! If this context continues for some days (at least 5 more trading days), I expect something BIG to happen.

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Probably broker credit will be history soon. SEC may introduce Delivery Against Payment mechanism and bank account will be directly linked to CDS account. Thereafter T+5, or T+3 will no longer be applicable. To me that is what they are getting at, and only financial institutions will be allowed to lend to investors and not stock brokers.



Last edited by Tiger on Wed Dec 21, 2011 4:59 pm; edited 1 time in total

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
New SEC chairperson has already said they would not do any significant change in this holiday season.So I do not see there is any reason to panic just because last SEC meeting is blunt.Central bank has already granted a relaxation.So I do think we should be patience at least till January.

Universalgoal


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes January is the Only Hope we wait more than one year so we can wait another month cheers

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Somehow or other its some kind of force selling in a control manner.. SEC has not said they're temporarily halting the 31st dead line so if we dont hear any stupid news like that before X'mas it meas the force selling is in force yet..

If they relax this again defa market is on the downhill after a temporary push Wink

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Some are against credit relaxation and other relaxation.I would like to ask them what do they suggest to prevent this down fall ? Or do they expect market to go furthur down wiping out retailors ?

Appuhamy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Please be remember, If market goes further down fundamentally sound counters also will be in trouble. It may have a grate impact on investor confidence.
So some immediate relaxation needs to taken by SEC.

10Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:38 pm

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
More credit will be good with low interest rates for all investors. But credit with interest rates at 15-18% will be a killer for many investors.

With relaxation of credit rules where would we see the market? at 6000, 6500, 7000, 8000, or 10000 ? In each of these cases what will happen to market valuations? What would be the reaction from HNWI and foreign investors and small timers.

My feeling is that any credit relaxation will be the last nail in the coffin for many small timers. But if that is what required by them I will join to pray for more and more credit from brokers.

11Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:49 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Tiger wrote:More credit will be good with low interest rates for all investors. But credit with interest rates at 15-18% will be a killer for many investors.

With relaxation of credit rules where would we see the market? at 6000, 6500, 7000, 8000, or 10000 ? In each of these cases what will happen to market valuations? What would be the reaction from HNWI and foreign investors and small timers.

My feeling is that any credit relaxation will be the last nail in the coffin for many small timers. But if that is what required by them I will join to pray for more and more credit from brokers.
According to u also only one nail is left. Wink What is/are ur method/s to remove the already driven nails from the coffin ? Otherwise last nail shall be driven in near future.

12Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:03 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
To put it blunt, if the market went up unnecessarily (backed by artificial money), it should be corrected itself. IMHO, SEC regulations did two good things. It

1. Stopped further undue up movement
2. Dried up the bubble without a sudden crash

Once all credit are cleared by December 31 (and no pseudo cash in the system), the market would start its own up-movement if it has corrected sufficiently (I'm in a view that we are not far-away from that point).

If credit clearance deadline is extended, the turning date will be pushed off further down the line. So I'm asking you, would you like to turn the market green sooner or latter?

13Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:12 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
To put it blunt, if the market went up unnecessarily (backed by artificial money), it should be corrected itself. IMHO, SEC regulations did two good things. It

1. Stopped further undue up movement
2. Dried up the bubble without a sudden crash

Once all credit are cleared by December 31 (and no pseudo cash in the system), the market would start its own up-movement if it has corrected sufficiently (I'm in a view that we are not far-away from that point).

If credit clearance deadline is extended, the turning date will be pushed off further down the line. So I'm asking you, would you like to turn the market green sooner or latter?
Then ur suggestion is just wait and let the market to move up on its own without doing anything ? I agree with u that credit clearance deadline should not be extended.

14Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:24 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@rijayasooriya wrote:
@Academic wrote:
To put it blunt, if the market went up unnecessarily (backed by artificial money), it should be corrected itself. IMHO, SEC regulations did two good things. It

1. Stopped further undue up movement
2. Dried up the bubble without a sudden crash

Once all credit are cleared by December 31 (and no pseudo cash in the system), the market would start its own up-movement if it has corrected sufficiently (I'm in a view that we are not far-away from that point).

If credit clearance deadline is extended, the turning date will be pushed off further down the line. So I'm asking you, would you like to turn the market green sooner or latter?
Then ur suggestion is just wait and let the market to move up on its own without doing anything ? I agree with u that credit clearance deadline should not be extended.

Honestly YES. In short run SEC should do nothing and let the market to settle (not changing existing policy is a must here). Then gradually they should take policy decisions ( again once taken should not be changed frequently) to make the market a free and fair-ground. Then we can see a smile on everyone's face. This is just my thinking.

15Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:34 pm

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Academic,
Thanks for clarification.Will wait for other suggestions.Then we may have a good discussion.

16Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:12 pm

illuminati


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@rijayasooriya wrote:Some are against credit relaxation and other relaxation.I would like to ask them what do they suggest to prevent this down fall ? Or do they expect market to go furthur down wiping out retailors ?

For sure almost all retailors will be wiped off by end of this year.Most have vanished already.Be careful buy and hold guys.

17Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:52 pm

lokuayya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
illumanati,
in your opinion what is best time to buy ?
how to decide the entry time?

18Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:25 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@illuminati wrote:
@rijayasooriya wrote:Some are against credit relaxation and other relaxation.I would like to ask them what do they suggest to prevent this down fall ? Or do they expect market to go furthur down wiping out retailors ?

For sure almost all retailors will be wiped off by end of this year.Most have vanished already.Be careful buy and hold guys.

No. Not all .According to your post at least you will be there.

19Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:37 pm

Appuhamy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@Academic. you suggest to wait and let the market to move up on its own without doing anything. but Some of the fundamentally strong counters have corrected over 50% from top. then what is the assurance you can give that these kind of counters don't go down further. Doesn't it have a major impact on investor confidence?

20Will there be any Force Selling again Empty Re: Will there be any Force Selling again Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:11 am

hirankb

hirankb
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
The brockers credit should be stopped completely and only financial institutes be allowed to give credit.

short selling , stop loss , should be introduced .

fundamental counters are changing hands from traders to investors. u can see this happening when fundamental stocks become illiquid and bid/offer ratios and spreads increase. fundamentals will start improved dividend yields and the market will gradually start to behave rationally.... then the fundamentals will gradually become liquid again.

above is a very possible scenario the SEC is planning for. give some thought......

over to you sriranga.

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