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BUY Recommendation on LLUB by Brokers firm

+5
WildBear
Antonym
Gaja
bakapandithaya
mra
9 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

mra

mra
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Dear experts. pls post your advice / comments on the following :-

There is a BUY recommendation on LLUB @ 170 prevailing price due to regular dividend payout (for 2012E estimated dividend is 10% ) and further appreciation of the share price estimated to Rs.195/share.

Buy price 170/-
add 10% div =Rs 17/-
Appreciation = Rs 25/share to Rs.195/-

Total gain = (17+25)=Rs.42 (its abt 25% Rtn on.170 investment )

The supporting data also shown in details forecast earning and increase number of vehicle YoY.

While analyzing the past company record, and high dividend payout it seems 25% return is possible easily. if so I am planing to invest few millions on this share and hold YoY basis. looks reasonable return without much risk.

experts please advice.

bakapandithaya

bakapandithaya
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Thnkx bro 4 info Very Happy

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

http://research.srilankaequity.com/t195-llub-reports

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Sensible thinking... Amidst all this market volatility, LLUB is a reasonably safe share to hold.
To diversify your risk, why don't you put some of your eggs in other baskets as well...?

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

LLUB is second to none when consider dividend payout ratio.
however when we analyze their past behavior, it is obviosly not a massive growth stock. It's PBV is very high. High divedend paying shares get CSE investors attractions when overall market is stagnent, but during bull period other stocks are dominating while stocks like CTC,LLUB,NEST get neglected by investors.This only my observation, not an expert view.






















raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

- CTC has the highest payout ratio

- I have my suspicions about whether LLUB will declare a LKR 17 dividend this year. I say this because their dividends have reduced over the past two calendar years.
2008 - LKR 10
2009 - LKR 17
2010 - LKR 12.25
2011 - LKR 9.

Their EPS will not grow in line with a near 100% increase in dividends for 2012. Realistically, I'd expect LKR 8.50 - LKR 13 this year.

Disclaimer: I have a few shares in CTC and LLUB that I've bought to hold long term.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

raa wrote:- CTC has the highest payout ratio

- I have my suspicions about whether LLUB will declare a LKR 17 dividend this year. I say this because their dividends have reduced over the past two calendar years.
2008 - LKR 10
2009 - LKR 17
2010 - LKR 12.25
2011 - LKR 9.

Their EPS will not grow in line with a near 100% increase in dividends for 2012. Realistically, I'd expect LKR 8.50 - LKR 13 this year.

Disclaimer: I have a few shares in CTC and LLUB that I've bought to hold long term.

Raa,
LLUB had a share split in 2009 december if I recall.

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Ah... ok I stand corrected.

Forgot about that. Razz

aj


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

LLUB market share has gone down from 100% to around 60+ %
There are too many competitors in the market. I think nearly 20 companies.

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Expert
Expert

Last 2 FY they reported EPS of 12.46 and 12.51 respectively. For the 09 months ended 2011 Sep they are reporting an EPS of 11.99. They will definitely surpass the previous figures ths FY.

Looks good at 170

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