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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » What if you Failed? Well still there's a second Chance...

What if you Failed? Well still there's a second Chance...

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smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Nobody’s fool..
To start with, some ppl may be smart enuf to understand that this was a bear market, but majority didnt.. Its just the lack of experience, knowledge to identify these things in advance.. So u cannot call ppl fools just for not being smart enuf.. Nor u can blame SEC and others.
One important thing anyone could do was to sell their shares when they see the signs of a breakeven point or stop loss..
But if anyone didn’t sell thinking that the market would turn up anytime, only possible chance was bear market rallies we saw here n there..

Lessons Learnt…
The only lesson we gotta take is; at least we witnessed a bear market and now wait till it bottomed out to buy back.. Nobody should get discouraged that they lost this much in CSE so they could tell they will never invest again...markets wont behave strangely for so long.. At one point it could show us signs of a recovery.. But not now...
When we compared losses, yours could be none, mine could be few laks, somebody else's could be a victim of 10 millions.. so???? Have we lost that much??
However, this is not money earned by killing dogs.. its our hard earned money, we sweated a lot to earn these, or this money could be your parents', they struggle a lot for earning this for you..
So a loss is anyway a LOSS.. u can’t compensate anything for it, but keep on blaming is only a mind dressor..

Technically, whats up now?
Looks like ASI is on a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish reversal one, but the reversal point is the place which is again difficult to plot. It could fall to 5400-5600 range sometimes..
Previously I thought ASI can even pass 6500. But huge resistance came up over 6100 so the market started falling. Seems like it'll be hard to beat the Neckline Resistance point around 6500 going forward.

What I'm thinking is; even for long term investors, still there’s time to collect lower.. The market could see a recovery near 5600 or if falls from 4800.. due to some technical points such as 50 day SMA, 50%, 38% Fibonacci retracements, etc.. Sometimes it can even start up between 5600-5800 due to previous resistance/support/psychological levels.
So the support I look at is; 5600, 5000, 4800.

What if we can find some good counters in a down market or a market with little volatility?Things to try;
01) Rotate stocks to different sectors – This is important; while every sector can have good results, some sectors will outperform others and will be promising in coming years. I think Tourism, infrastructure will be the best short to long term sectors that would perform well in coming years.. tourist arrivals are expected to increase at least by 20%.

02) Country’s growth is expected to be a little over 8% now, so banks are giving u 9-11% FD returns, put some money in bank for 1-3-6 months. For you to have a good return, the market return should exceed 11%. Come back to the market when it shows positive signs with improved TO, volumes, investor sentiments..

03) Calculate the earnings of companies (EPS) and if possible, forecast the future earnings.. If results and the business look promising, move into those counters. Mostly we should follow businesses we can understand and have some idea about..

04) Avoid speculative counters unless you are a trader.. But expose only 10-20% of your total portfolio for these. Best thing for traders is to go for swing trading rather than day trading..

05) Stop listening to your broker unless they have a proven track record of being successful at least at a ratio over 70%. Learn the art of investing, trading by reading books written by successful investors / traders.

06) Look for other investment opportunities besides CSE – Lands, Gold, Buying and selling business, etc..

07) Stop averaging down your favourite counters – you’re up for an opportunity loss by doing so.. Put your money on a 1 month FD and buy some valuable counters when u see the market bottom.

Keep in mind; Don’t let your investment be a burden or a hindrance to you..



Last edited by smallville on Sat Jan 07, 2012 8:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

illuminati


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Finally some kind of sensible analysis. Is it too late ?

kaka


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thank you smallville for the information

kankaniya


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Thank you. Sensible post. I hope you don't get accused of being 'an agent of HNWI', a retard, a sabatuer etc etc like other bears have been accused of lately. On the other hand people whose make such wild accusations seems to have disappeared from the forum after screaming buy, buy, buy. No doubt they had made use of the recent bear market rally to sell to the people who listened to them.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@smallville
Really I appreciate your views.
Thank for sharing a valuable post.
Hope those who stick to their own strategy will survive.
Plan a trade and trade a plan.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

opfdo

opfdo
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
thank you

Chris Gardner

Chris Gardner
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Highly appreciate... Thanx

rmark

rmark
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thank you for sharing smallville!

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good work. Well worded.
Thanks a lot.

kas

kas
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Good Post Thanks Small Smile

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good post Small. Thanks.
I'm already into option no 02 & 06. Wink

TortoizePlus

TortoizePlus
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks SmallVille for providing a correct view

bakapandithaya

bakapandithaya
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thnkx small 4 sharing

manula


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks small.. good words.. cheers
(I also slowly moving to item 2 and 6)



Last edited by manula on Sun Jan 08, 2012 12:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good post small.

As I always say this is a very good experience...Yes.... most of us have lost significant amount of our hard earned money but do not consider this as just a wastage.

We have learnt a lesson....Yes.... It was a hard way to learn a lesson but as a result of which we would never forget it.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
You have mentioned some very good points under 1-7 small which mostly I agree. Great job!



Last edited by slstock on Sun Jan 08, 2012 7:28 pm; edited 1 time in total

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Nice Job man..

rubber.trader


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Pleased to see that even those predicting a massive bull run this month, agree with the contents. I am not disagreeing with smallville, but permit me to raise several points in good faith.

First and foremost, I do not recall many bears labeling those caught on the wrong side of the trend as fools. On the other hand numerous posters, mostly those holding long positions have accused the bears of being fools and as kankaniya pointed out, sometimes the accusation has been that the bears are agents of HNWI. Illuminati in particular has been at the recieving end of the brunt of these attacks.


Some others, under misguided notion of treading a middle path; say that the bears are too pessimistic while the bulls are too optimistic. Sad to say, the stock market is not a democracy and the majority is usually wrong and there is no middle path. (markets rarely move sideways, it's either up or down).

For many it's far too late to sell. The only option is to keep away for at least an year. Certainly by 2013 we will be at the bottom. Because we don't have short sales in the CSE, the bear markets usually have a slow and steady decline unlike in other countries where prices drop rapidly and touch bottom in 12-24 months.

laka

laka
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@smallville wrote:
Technically, whats up now?
Looks like ASI is on a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish reversal one, but the reversal point is the place which is again difficult to plot. It could fall to 5400-5600 range sometimes..
Previously I thought ASI can even pass 6500. But huge resistance came up over 6100 so the market started falling. Seems like it'll be hard to beat the Neckline Resistance point around 6500 going forward.

What I'm thinking is; even for long term investors, still there’s time to collect lower.. The market could see a recovery near 5600 or if falls from 4800.. due to some technical points such as 50 day SMA, 50%, 38% Fibonacci retracements, etc.. Sometimes it can even start up between 5600-5800 due to previous resistance/support/psychological levels.
So the support I look at is; 5600, 5000, 4800.

Do you still think this is a technical issue ? No its a liquidity issue... CSE's cash position is very
low.We have passed enough technical buying points @ 7000,6800,6450,6250 again reaching to 5850..
When it was at 6100, we saw how bears' power is. There are a lot of parcels available for sale only in banking sector(others also same). So how can we run the market without buying those.. that's why we need inflows...

That's why I reiterate we need strong real cash in put for this problem rather than searching technical buying points and credit relaxation ( if credit is relaxed we can expect short run by maximum 300 points and then again start crashing)

So IMO we have to wait till foreigners come back to CSE Sad

My old post on 21 Dec 2011
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t14208-is-this-crisis-due-to-secs-over-regulations-or-illiquidity

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