I see there is big clash now between bears and bulls and even the bull-bears can get dragged in to it.
Below is my related post :
Firstly, I agree that optimal option would have been to exit completely sometime in Last February because market was at peak. But was it right to never buy back ? The fact is many of us did not exit completely in Feb 2011 ( if one did, Great job. But you if Never Entered Again you missed some opportunities in the middle). We now have cope with the market. That is the reality. And maybe even make use of it! If we can;t ??
The question to ask is this: during this period have we not made any profits in any shares we held/ traded? If no is the answer we seriously need to re-examine our strategy and the shares we are holding. There is something wrong somewhere.
I also notice that some people believe we should completely stay out in 2012. I respect that opinion but my question is : can there not be opportunities and probabilities for uptrend of selected shares during this period? Atleast range bound? ( am not talking about the necessity for whole market market to bull run. Also identifying these shares is a task. ) .
Example ( short term only):
Take LDEV. A highly inflated RS 85 LDEV share started dropping after a Rs 25 right issue. When it seemed a near bottom around Rs 16 it was a "relative bargain". If one bought around ( 16-18) they would have made profit when it went back to Rs 24. Then it dropped to RS 16 in the bear. Then LDEV announced it made a huge loss last quarter and during the bear. Then LDEV dropped to Rs 13+. Now back around RS 15. How many opportunies we would have had if we look closely and can identify/ develop the skill. Maybe it will go to Rs 10-12 who knows ?
Here is a what if , extreme example. Though we all condemned GREG constantly ( I am not fan of it) , what if suddenly collapses to Rs 15 -18 ( extreme case am not saying it will). I would certainly buy for a trade ( not for long term) . Why? Think warrant holder value ;-) Would you not? Like that there are so many opportunities in the market for those who are concerned about short term.
What ever the case is , what ever we do there will always be buyers and sellers ( unless there is unprecedented collapse of the market) creating new opportunities . Maybe short term. Long term portfolio approach is different which I/we have discussed several times. Lot of people in this forum do not believe in it . So I rather not discuss it again here .
Btw, I agree that staying out completely is good advice for those who follow the crowd blindly and do not know what they are buying into and then they frets over it constantly.
Those guys who fret over short term losses should
a) learn to develop a plan and have goal to know when to enter and exit
b) go learn the art of short term trading only ( as holding and seeing losses within a short term period ignoring the longer term targets is pressure too much)
c) as other suggested complete stay out of the market ( but then my point above raises about opportunities costs. chicken and egg)
Just like life, share market has ups and downs. We need to learn to survive. I have not mastered the skill but am a lot better than before. I learn a lot in this bear period ( yes it can get worser if things do not change) .
Let think of this as a constant learning process. Maybe sometime the negative can be a positive if we identify and make use of it.
Do you have losses in you short term portfolio? Medium term portfolio? Or Long term?
My request to every one in the forum is : let us not mix up our short term, medium term and long term goals and targets. What did you buy and why ? For what period to hold? What is your target and expectation ?
If we cannot identify the above it is time to come up with a plan or completely exit the market as some others said.