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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Should we have exited our portfolio in Feb 2011? What if we did not?

Should we have exited our portfolio in Feb 2011? What if we did not?

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I respect multiple point of views.
I see there is big clash now between bears and bulls and even the bull-bears can get dragged in to it.

Below is my related post :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t13740-on-the-occasion-of-my-2000th-post?highlight=2000+post

Firstly, I agree that optimal option would have been to exit completely sometime in Last February because market was at peak. But was it right to never buy back ? The fact is many of us did not exit completely in Feb 2011 ( if one did, Great job. But you if Never Entered Again you missed some opportunities in the middle). We now have cope with the market. That is the reality. And maybe even make use of it! If we can;t ??

The question to ask is this: during this period have we not made any profits in any shares we held/ traded? If no is the answer we seriously need to re-examine our strategy and the shares we are holding. There is something wrong somewhere.

I also notice that some people believe we should completely stay out in 2012. I respect that opinion but my question is : can there not be opportunities and probabilities for uptrend of selected shares during this period? Atleast range bound? ( am not talking about the necessity for whole market market to bull run. Also identifying these shares is a task. ) .

Example ( short term only):

Take LDEV. A highly inflated RS 85 LDEV share started dropping after a Rs 25 right issue. When it seemed a near bottom around Rs 16 it was a "relative bargain". If one bought around ( 16-18) they would have made profit when it went back to Rs 24. Then it dropped to RS 16 in the bear. Then LDEV announced it made a huge loss last quarter and during the bear. Then LDEV dropped to Rs 13+. Now back around RS 15. How many opportunies we would have had if we look closely and can identify/ develop the skill. Maybe it will go to Rs 10-12 who knows ?

Here is a what if , extreme example. Though we all condemned GREG constantly ( I am not fan of it) , what if suddenly collapses to Rs 15 -18 ( extreme case am not saying it will). I would certainly buy for a trade ( not for long term) . Why? Think warrant holder value ;-) Would you not? Like that there are so many opportunities in the market for those who are concerned about short term.

What ever the case is , what ever we do there will always be buyers and sellers ( unless there is unprecedented collapse of the market) creating new opportunities . Maybe short term. Long term portfolio approach is different which I/we have discussed several times. Lot of people in this forum do not believe in it . So I rather not discuss it again here .

Btw, I agree that staying out completely is good advice for those who follow the crowd blindly and do not know what they are buying into and then they frets over it constantly.

Those guys who fret over short term losses should

a) learn to develop a plan and have goal to know when to enter and exit
or
b) go learn the art of short term trading only ( as holding and seeing losses within a short term period ignoring the longer term targets is pressure too much)
or
c) as other suggested complete stay out of the market ( but then my point above raises about opportunities costs. chicken and egg)

Just like life, share market has ups and downs. We need to learn to survive. I have not mastered the skill but am a lot better than before. I learn a lot in this bear period ( yes it can get worser if things do not change) .

Let think of this as a constant learning process. Maybe sometime the negative can be a positive if we identify and make use of it.

Do you have losses in you short term portfolio? Medium term portfolio? Or Long term?

My request to every one in the forum is : let us not mix up our short term, medium term and long term goals and targets. What did you buy and why ? For what period to hold? What is your target and expectation ?

If we cannot identify the above it is time to come up with a plan or completely exit the market as some others said.

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Timely post, thanks for sharing.

Trillionaire

Trillionaire
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks for sharing your view! Smile

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
"Investment in a bear market strikes fear among the risk averse investors. Most of the investors at this point of time try to sell their portfolio/investments and not ready to buy at lower cost."

Thanks for sharing your views.

Appuhamy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
yes slstock. we can earn from short trading also. But some people are addicted to only long term fundamentally strong shares. How unlucky they are.
Smile
they have been repeating saying "fundamentally strong shares" ,"fundamentally strong shares", "fundamentally strong shares", "fundamentally strong shares" Razz

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks Slstock...Very useful thoughts about short term trading.

To be frank, I completly exited from shor term trading, unless if i get some info (from reliable source) on certain stocks, i buy for shor-term.

At present, i am collecting some picks @ bargain for holding for atleast minimum 5 years. But very slowly, Buying 100 - 500 qty ( Sometime You may be laughing). And i found other opportunity in investing private placement lising only through introduction, and subscribing additional rights ( May be u don't get, just try). This is my investment style following last three moths. I think this may be good for the present mkt condition. Will see How this works out for me, Only i feel No headache for last one or two months

In bear mkt, doing trading is not comfortable, I had bad experaince and lost some bucks. Then i decided to leave from the trading untill mkt to stabilize.

Will see, will my style work out?

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Thanks for sharing you views.
Personally I pull back around 70% of my PF in Jan 2011, then in Sep 2011 around 20%, for various reasons. In the meantime I had done some short trading(swing) which brought nice profit. Now I'm looking for some particular stocks for medium/long term. When the chances come in my way there is no hesitation to play swing trading also.
My share target price calculation based on future prospects.(which I mentioned before in a PM to you)
I need to accept in 2011 my investing strategy was slightly changed.(May be more in 2012,who knows)
Have a good trade.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks Slstocks.

I think stay completely away from any market is not a wise move. Rolling Eyes

opfdo

opfdo
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
thanks brother. That is why you are called Modarator

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:Thanks Slstock...Very useful thoughts about short term trading.

To be frank, I completly exited from shor term trading, unless if i get some info (from reliable source) on certain stocks, i buy for shor-term.

At present, i am collecting some picks @ bargain for holding for atleast minimum 5 years. But very slowly, Buying 100 - 500 qty ( Sometime You may be laughing). And i found other opportunity in investing private placement lising only through introduction, and subscribing additional rights ( May be u don't get, just try). This is my investment style following last three moths. I think this may be good for the present mkt condition. Will see How this works out for me, Only i feel No headache for last one or two months

In bear mkt, doing trading is not comfortable, I had bad experaince and lost some bucks. Then i decided to leave from the trading untill mkt to stabilize.

Will see, will my style work out?


Seyon,
I am absolutely not laughing. I see nothing wrong in buying few hundred shares for long term. ALso I see your strategy has "potential" . Only thing is sometime market drips below right issue prices also unless there is a massive gap between right price and number of shares issued.

Please keep us posted hpw your strategy is working. Good luck.

manula


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:Thanks Slstock...Very useful thoughts about short term trading.

To be frank, I completly exited from shor term trading, unless if i get some info (from reliable source) on certain stocks, i buy for shor-term.

At present, i am collecting some picks @ bargain for holding for atleast minimum 5 years. But very slowly, Buying 100 - 500 qty ( Sometime You may be laughing). And i found other opportunity in investing private placement lising only through introduction, and subscribing additional rights ( May be u don't get, just try). This is my investment style following last three moths. I think this may be good for the present mkt condition. Will see How this works out for me, Only i feel No headache for last one or two months

In bear mkt, doing trading is not comfortable, I had bad experaince and lost some bucks. Then i decided to leave from the trading untill mkt to stabilize.

Will see, will my style work out?


Seyon.. I don't think in that nothing to laugh.. these days better to buy 100qty stocks due market behaviour. But if you are going for day trading better to try with big quantity with small profit in speculative shares. (large quantity will increase the profit).. but willbe little risky. You have to know the correct entry/exit point.

Universalgoal


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:I respect multiple point of views.
I see there is big clash now between bears and bulls and even the bull-bears can get dragged in to it.

Below is my related post :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t13740-on-the-occasion-of-my-2000th-post?highlight=2000+post

Firstly, I agree that optimal option would have been to exit completely sometime in Last February because market was at peak. But was it right to never buy back ? The fact is many of us did not exit completely in Feb 2011 ( if one did, Great job. But you if Never Entered Again you missed some opportunities in the middle). We now have cope with the market. That is the reality. And maybe even make use of it! If we can;t ??

The question to ask is this: during this period have we not made any profits in any shares we held/ traded? If no is the answer we seriously need to re-examine our strategy and the shares we are holding. There is something wrong somewhere.

Need a moderators like u who are not laughing at others and giving best advises

I also notice that some people believe we should completely stay out in 2012. I respect that opinion but my question is : can there not be opportunities and probabilities for uptrend of selected shares during this period? Atleast range bound? ( am not talking about the necessity for whole market market to bull run. Also identifying these shares is a task. ) .

Example ( short term only):

Take LDEV. A highly inflated RS 85 LDEV share started dropping after a Rs 25 right issue. When it seemed a near bottom around Rs 16 it was a "relative bargain". If one bought around ( 16-18) they would have made profit when it went back to Rs 24. Then it dropped to RS 16 in the bear. Then LDEV announced it made a huge loss last quarter and during the bear. Then LDEV dropped to Rs 13+. Now back around RS 15. How many opportunies we would have had if we look closely and can identify/ develop the skill. Maybe it will go to Rs 10-12 who knows ?

Here is a what if , extreme example. Though we all condemned GREG constantly ( I am not fan of it) , what if suddenly collapses to Rs 15 -18 ( extreme case am not saying it will). I would certainly buy for a trade ( not for long term) . Why? Think warrant holder value ;-) Would you not? Like that there are so many opportunities in the market for those who are concerned about short term.

What ever the case is , what ever we do there will always be buyers and sellers ( unless there is unprecedented collapse of the market) creating new opportunities . Maybe short term. Long term portfolio approach is different which I/we have discussed several times. Lot of people in this forum do not believe in it . So I rather not discuss it again here .

Btw, I agree that staying out completely is good advice for those who follow the crowd blindly and do not know what they are buying into and then they frets over it constantly.

Those guys who fret over short term losses should

a) learn to develop a plan and have goal to know when to enter and exit
or
b) go learn the art of short term trading only ( as holding and seeing losses within a short term period ignoring the longer term targets is pressure too much)
or
c) as other suggested complete stay out of the market ( but then my point above raises about opportunities costs. chicken and egg)

Just like life, share market has ups and downs. We need to learn to survive. I have not mastered the skill but am a lot better than before. I learn a lot in this bear period ( yes it can get worser if things do not change) .

Let think of this as a constant learning process. Maybe sometime the negative can be a positive if we identify and make use of it.

Do you have losses in you short term portfolio? Medium term portfolio? Or Long term?

My request to every one in the forum is : let us not mix up our short term, medium term and long term goals and targets. What did you buy and why ? For what period to hold? What is your target and expectation ?

If we cannot identify the above it is time to come up with a plan or completely exit the market as some others said.

verrybadly need moderators like you who are providing valuble post, comments and without laughing others

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
@seyon wrote:Thanks Slstock...Very useful thoughts about short term trading.

To be frank, I completly exited from shor term trading, unless if i get some info (from reliable source) on certain stocks, i buy for shor-term.

At present, i am collecting some picks @ bargain for holding for atleast minimum 5 years. But very slowly, Buying 100 - 500 qty ( Sometime You may be laughing). And i found other opportunity in investing private placement lising only through introduction, and subscribing additional rights ( May be u don't get, just try). This is my investment style following last three moths. I think this may be good for the present mkt condition. Will see How this works out for me, Only i feel No headache for last one or two months

In bear mkt, doing trading is not comfortable, I had bad experaince and lost some bucks. Then i decided to leave from the trading untill mkt to stabilize.

Will see, will my style work out?


Seyon,
I am absolutely not laughing. I see nothing wrong in buying few hundred shares for long term. ALso I see your strategy has "potential" . Only thing is sometime market drips below right issue prices also unless there is a massive gap between right price and number of shares issued.

Please keep us posted hpw your strategy is working. Good luck.

Sofar it is working good... Yes as u said i apply some addtional, which has massive gap between ex right price and right price, then only u will get atleast 10% return ( Very good retrun for one month), Further these days i am looking for some finance companies come through introduction,that would give reasonable return. Top of that i feel good sleep and No headache.

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