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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..?

next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..?

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amilaela

amilaela
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001851586843

kama


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
5450 just thinking... cyclops

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@amilaela wrote:next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

No real expert in this forum to answer your question. That is the truth!

kama


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
@amilaela wrote:next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

No real expert in this forum to answer your question. That is the truth!

No one is perfect in this world...

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
@amilaela wrote:next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

No real expert in this forum to answer your question. That is the truth!

No Academic

We have experts in this forum.. I can even point to, But CSE is not a ACTIVE Market for our experts to comment,
One day God also tried and He failed This is our nature of the mkt... No one predict...

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@amilaela wrote:next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

No real expert in this forum to answer your question. That is the truth!

No Academic

We have experts in this forum.. I can even point to, But CSE is not a ACTIVE Market for our experts to comment,
One day God also tried and He failed

To be called as a skillful captain, he should sail safely both in the calm and stormy sea!

wallstreetguy


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
There is not bottom . After zero, there is the negative value.
But the correction support line is 4200, and peak is 5100. it will eventually come there. Then it would bounce technically

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I disagree. This market will not fall below 5000...

Maybe on technical analysis, it may be indicative of falling to this level and that is a respected opinion. However, I personally feel that a drop to that level will require monumental declines in share prices across the board which may be unwarranted. As i've said before, smart money is available and money will come back into the market if the ASI declines to 5000.

Most speculatives and penny shares that were artificially driving the market up have come down drastically (GREG, SEMB, DPL, PCH, EAST, HVA and others).

Illiquids may still have room to fall down but as their price shoots down, their effect on the overall market reduces as their market cap as a % of total market cap. will reduce with their price.

So for the market to fall 10%, the big shares need to fall 10% under simple analysis. Here is a rough idea of what the prices of the big shares will have to be like if everything came down 10%. Obviously, some have the capacity to fall lower (like JKH and SAMP) and some might have reached their lows (PLC? ). I have voiced my opinions about certain prices in brackets, they may differ amongst your opinions. If I haven't made a comment it is because I have no opinion about the share.

JKH - LKR 150.00
BUKI - LKR 900.00
CARS - LKR 480.00
CTC - LKR 430.00 (likely)
SLTL - LKR 42.00
COMB - LKR 90.00 (unlikely)
DIAL - LKR 6.80
NEST - LKR 790.00
SPEN - LKR 101.00
HNB - LKR 131.00
CARG - LKR 172.00 (unlikely)
DIST - LKR 127.00 (unlikely)
LOLC - LKR 70.00
AHPL - LKR 67.00
CTHR - LKR 153.00
SAMP - LKR 172.00 (my broker says this can happen)
DFCC - LKR 99.00 (unlikely, I've been trying to buy below 105 for last 2 months)
HAYL - LKR 333.00
PLC - LKR 14.10 (No chance!!)
VONE - LKR 19.50

SL.Market

SL.Market
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Need strong prop to stable without down trend... It can be only done with the most awaited news... otherwise down will continue with small margins

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
@seyon wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@amilaela wrote:next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

No real expert in this forum to answer your question. That is the truth!

No Academic

We have experts in this forum.. I can even point to, But CSE is not a ACTIVE Market for our experts to comment,
One day God also tried and He failed

To be called as a skillful captain, he should sail safely both in the calm and stormy sea!

Yes Experts also burnt their fingers, Thats true.... This nature of the mkt beyond knowledge of rational investors. Tell How expert can read mind of MD of Capital Trust, Deputy Chairman of VONE, Director of REEF and So called profesional traders. Even GOD can not read their mind...

Genting


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Why market should go up?
Only positive factor is that companies are doing well. But, just because they do well, market will not go up. To make the market up, fresh funds should come in. Due to all adverse regulations, investors are staying away from the market. If ASI falls more, more people will withdraw their investments!

If regulators are waiting till new funds come in to relax rules, then they have to realize that no one want's to catch the falling knife!

According to my calculations, within couple of days ASI may hit 5750-5700. This down trend may continue until there is something to make to market turnaround.

Note: DOW is now 12300+. It looks like DOW has recovered from recent bare market. This may stimulate foreign investors to invest other markets, like SL. So, part of foreign funds who left SL may comeback. For them to come back there should be good environment. Then will not invest in a blood bath!

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Genting wrote:Why market should go up?
Only positive factor is that companies are doing well. But, just because they do well, market will not go up. To make the market up, fresh funds should come in. Due to all adverse regulations, investors are staying away from the market. If ASI falls more, more people will withdraw their investments!

If regulators are waiting till new funds come in to relax rules, then they have to realize that no one want's to catch the falling knife!

According to my calculations, within couple of days ASI may hit 5750-5700. This down trend may continue until there is something to make to market turnaround.

Note: DOW is now 12300+. It looks like DOW has recovered from recent bare market. This may stimulate foreign investors to invest other markets, like SL. So, part of foreign funds who left SL may comeback. For them to come back there should be good environment. Then will not invest in a blood bath!


Regarding Foreign Fund:
Do not forget India opened the door for foreign individuals to invest direct in their market.
Their market is already discounted heavily.

wiki


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes Experts also burnt their fingers, Thats true.... This nature of the mkt beyond knowledge of rational investors. Tell How expert can read mind of MD of Capital Trust, Deputy Chairman of VONE, Director of REEF and So called profesional traders. Even GOD can not read their mind...

well said.. have a point

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Here's my silver lining. If there really is a blood bath - the market should have reached 5700 by now.

There are no buyers in the market. All manner of investors are staying away....but there is also no selling down. Yes there is net selling, but nobody is selling down. Yes the market will face a slow and painful decline till money comes in..

My point is, it isn't a bloodbath. There is no significant credit clearing or panic selling as we are accustomed to seeing. I wouldn't say the market is bottoming out, but until funds enter, the market will be characterised by a slow decline with poor turnover and volumes.

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@raa wrote:Here's my silver lining. If there really is a blood bath - the market should have reached 5700 by now.

There are no buyers in the market. All manner of investors are staying away....but there is also no selling down. Yes there is net selling, but nobody is selling down. Yes the market will face a slow and painful decline till money comes in..

Yea raa you have a valid point.

I prefer to wait till end of February before buy shares for medium/long term (only for investments). If market will not any show positive signal, I will postpone my plan.

We dont need to buy shares soon after we sold some shares.

bePositive

bePositive
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Unless the President or SEC head makes a significant, Positive announcement related to the market, it will continue to fall.

http://www.viabletraffic.com

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@seyon wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@amilaela wrote:next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

No real expert in this forum to answer your question. That is the truth!

No Academic

We have experts in this forum.. I can even point to, But CSE is not a ACTIVE Market for our experts to comment,
One day God also tried and He failed

To be called as a skillful captain, he should sail safely both in the calm and stormy sea!

Yes Experts also burnt their fingers, Thats true.... This nature of the mkt beyond knowledge of rational investors. Tell How expert can read mind of MD of Capital Trust, Deputy Chairman of VONE, Director of REEF and So called profesional traders. Even GOD can not read their mind...

Yes. That is why I'm more into behavioural finance now. Even behavioural finance do not explain individual investor's behaviour (eg. DC of VONE).

ct.trader


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@seyon wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@seyon wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@amilaela wrote:next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

No real expert in this forum to answer your question. That is the truth!

No Academic

We have experts in this forum.. I can even point to, But CSE is not a ACTIVE Market for our experts to comment,
One day God also tried and He failed

To be called as a skillful captain, he should sail safely both in the calm and stormy sea!

Yes Experts also burnt their fingers, Thats true.... This nature of the mkt beyond knowledge of rational investors. Tell How expert can read mind of MD of Capital Trust, Deputy Chairman of VONE, Director of REEF and So called profesional traders. Even GOD can not read their mind...

I think Acadamic is right. The real experts would have pulled out long ago. They are not at all interested in a market that is retail driven that's the sad truth.

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ct.trader wrote:
@seyon wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@seyon wrote:
@Academic wrote:
@amilaela wrote:next support level 5850 ? then mkt bounce back to 6100 or 4800? expert pls tell..? Sad Sad

No real expert in this forum to answer your question. That is the truth!

No Academic

We have experts in this forum.. I can even point to, But CSE is not a ACTIVE Market for our experts to comment,
One day God also tried and He failed

To be called as a skillful captain, he should sail safely both in the calm and stormy sea!

Yes Experts also burnt their fingers, Thats true.... This nature of the mkt beyond knowledge of rational investors. Tell How expert can read mind of MD of Capital Trust, Deputy Chairman of VONE, Director of REEF and So called profesional traders. Even GOD can not read their mind...

I think Acadamic is right. The real experts would have pulled out long ago. They are not at all interested in a market that is retail driven that's the sad truth.
Both seyon and Acadamic have got valid points.If real experts have pulled out long ago they might have lost lots of trading oppurtunities.
As Acadamic has mentioned a skillful captain(real expert) should sail safely both in the calm and stormy sea.

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Market will not be a blood pool as we have seen before but the investors are staying out of it. Arriving of a new year and the Christmas may be reasoned for that situation because I saw this dull condition since the last days of December 11.

At the end of this month the market will turn to its normal condition. Investors will try to buy profitable shares of companies which pay higher dividends. So we will able to see an upward movement of ASI during this period. If our big players enter to the market in this period, possibly it will be the complete turning point of the market.

But there's an unhappy thing also. Panic sellers are still among us and they will try to exit by selling their stocks at bid prices, because the targeted holding period of 1 year has come to the end of many investors who have bought shares at the beginning of 2011.

These ideas were given by a very expert share investor who I met 2 days ago.

Very Happy

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