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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » This is not a SCRAP or a JUNK share now. An analysis of GREG

This is not a SCRAP or a JUNK share now. An analysis of GREG

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hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Quarter by Quarter Analysis of GREG ratios and share price from June 2009 to as at Today
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*** This is not a promotion ***

* I made my intention to re-enter this share around 28/- levels when the share was trading at 34/- levels
during last 4-7 days. Please refer my comments on GREG topics during last few days.

* Now my average cost is around 26/70 as it came down more than I expected.

* Depending on the market condition share may go up or down, but why I say it's not a SCRAP anymore?

GREG IS TRADING ALLMOST ON THE NET ASSET VALUE, and this is the first time in three years, price has dropped to this level and to a very attractive PBV ratio of 1.15 times.

* Beta Values against ASI (As of Fourth Quarter of year 2011) = 3.61
Beta Values against MPI (As of Fourth Quarter of year 2011) = 3.17
(GREG is a MILANKA share)

* WHY IT'S NOT ATTRACTIVE WHEN A SHARE WITH HIGH BETA TRADES AT A PBV OF 1.15? IT CAN ROCK!
(But of cause depending on market conditions.)

* One can argue why not considering EPS. It's not wise to compare EPS on a company which operates like
an Investment trust with management control. Since their business model is to nurture a weak company
and sell it at a higher price. So always track the NAV and PBV. EPS is can mislead.

* This is my opinion. Open for discussion.



Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
GREG From tomorrow READY for bull run and move up..............................

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Speculative share become fair value share?

CSE.SAS

CSE.SAS
Global Moderator
GOOD analysis of GREG

Keep it up..

illuminati


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Lion heart the owning company and its directors must be a bunch of fools not to subscribe for GREG shares at 24 whilst our intelligent retailers are buying above this price !

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@illuminati wrote:Lion heart the owning company and its directors must be a bunch of fools not to subscribe for GREG shares at 24 whilst our intelligent retailers are buying above this price !

Lionhart may not have cash to subscribe for shares or they did it purposely to be in line with the SEC regulations to shed out their holdings to public and keep 70% at least..

2011 Warrants alloted - 104.32 Mil
Warrant Conversions (1+2) - 33.88 + 2.53 = 36.41 Mil
Wasted = 67.91 Mil Warrants

As per the qtr report, http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/782_1320752107046.pdf;

Net Asset Value Per Share = Rs. 22.11 (prior to 2nd warrent conversion)
EPS = 0.24

No of Ordinary shares represented in Stated Capital = 315,482,030
No of Warrants Issued ;
2011 - 101,783,890
2012 - 347,721,600
2014 - 347,721,600
2015 - 347,721,600

Total Warrants = 1,144,948,690

Twenty Major Warrant holders of the Company as at 30th September 2011 - Warrant 2012

Lionhart Investments Limited. - 316,001,882
First Capital Markets Limited/Mr.S.H.M.Rishan - 5,000,000
Knight Trade (Pvt) Ltd. - 2,628,800

The percentage of public holding as at 30.09.2011

Ordinary Shares - 16.03%
2012 warrants - 8.37% (29.1 Mil)
2014 warrants - 6.85%
2015 warrants - 6.62%

As of June financials, Lionhart Investments Limited had 98.25 Mil warrants, and the full conversion is merely 36.41 Mil. Then public holding of 2011 warrants was nearly 5% which is 5 Mil.
Also apart from top 20 list, others had 2.5% only so top share holders might had participated in
conversion too while Lionheart gave their participation too..

It will be interesting to refer the upcoming qtr report to see how much of share shedding Lionhart had done in these days..

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
If the share can trade way above its actual value making it scrap and expensive, it can trade way below its value as well due to panic, making it cheap and attractive!

If the market falls below 5700 points, i don't see GREG moving up in the near term to medium term!

Even at this price GREG = JUNK. Good opportunity created for short term traders!

Cheers!



Last edited by Rapaport on Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
ROFL at these posts! PPL making GREG in to a great company where net asset values been shown from the money taken from people as warrants (warrant factory shares) and after warrant conversion where EPS will be around Rs Rs 0.1 or below meaning a company trading at a PE ratio of 280 . Very Happy

The biggest shady company it seems in need of a pump and dump and now trying to give a positive outlook! That too to a company running on public money with no cash inflow! Laughing Laughing Laughing

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote:

The biggest shady company it seems in need of a pump and dump and now trying to give a positive outlook! That too to a company running on public money with no cash inflow! Laughing Laughing Laughing

That's the idea.. Now adays u can even list a bulath kade in CSE if ppl can invest on it Wink

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:
@Rajitha wrote:

The biggest shady company it seems in need of a pump and dump and now trying to give a positive outlook! That too to a company running on public money with no cash inflow! Laughing Laughing Laughing

That's the idea.. Now adays u can even list a bulath kade in CSE if ppl can invest on it Wink

Well said.

kam2011


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
heriesha, you must have become already a winner in GREG. At your cost now u can earn more than 15 % within 3-4 days. I have already traded with 12% profit at 31.30

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