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Will Israel attack Iran in 2012- Just for your thoughts &FB

+3
hawklk
soileconomy
Hawk Eye
7 posters

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Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Expert
Expert

author Ronen Bergman, military analyst for Israel's largest newspaper, leaves no doubt of his answer: "Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012."

Bergman does cite some compelling arguments against an Israeli strike from former heads of Mossad (Israel's CIA). And he makes it clear that no attack can prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons if it wants them. Everyone agrees on that. The argument is only about whether an attack would delay the Iranian program by a few years or just a few months.

Nevertheless, his article stacks the deck in favor of supposedly persuasive reasons for Israel to act. It's almost a hymn of praise to what one Jewish Israeli scholar has called Iranophobia, an irrational fear promoted by the Jewish state because "Israel needs an existential threat." Why? To sustain the myth that shapes its national identity: the myth of Israel's insecurity.

That myth comes out clearly in Bergman's conclusion: Israel will attack Iran because of a "peculiar Israeli mixture of fear -- rooted in the sense that Israel is dependent on the tacit support of other nations to survive -- and tenacity, the fierce conviction, right or wrong, that only the Israelis can ultimately defend themselves."

Fear of what? Defend against whom? It doesn't really matter. Israeli political life has always been built on the premise that Israel's very existence is threatened by some new Hitler bent on destroying the Jewish people. How can Israel prove that Jews can defend themselves if there's no anti-semitic "evil-doer" to fight against?

So here is Israel's defense minister, Ehud Barak, talking to Bergman about Iran's "desire to destroy Israel." Proof? Who needs it? It's taken for granted.

In fact, in accurate translations of anti-Israel diatribes from Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, there's no mention of destroying or even harming Jews, nor any threat of war. There's only a clear call for a one-state solution: replacing a distinctly Jewish state, which privileges its Jewish citizens and imposes military occupation on Palestinians, with a single political entity from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.

Guess who else called for exactly the same resolution to the conflict: the most renowned Jewish thinker of the 20th century, Martin Buber. Plenty of Jews keep Buber's vision alive today, offering cogent (though debatable) arguments that a one-state solution would be in the best interests of Jews as well as Palestinians.

Yet Ronen Bergman and the editors of the New York Times Magazine see no need for their readers to encounter these facts.

Nor do they see any need to mention the most important fact of all, the one most flagrantly missing from Bergman's long article: No matter what Iran's leaders might desire, it's beyond belief that they would ever launch a single nuke against Israel. They know full well that it would be national suicide. Israel has at least 100 nukes, and 200 or more by many estimates, all ready to be used in a counterattack.

Which makes it hard not to laugh when Bergman reports Ehud Barak's other arguments for attacking Iran. Even if Iran doesn't intend to kill all the Jews, "the moment Iran goes nuclear, other countries in the region will feel compelled to do the same." That's the foolish "stop a Middle East nuclear arms race" argument we hear so often coming out of Washington, too -- as if Israel had not already started the Middle East nuclear arms race decades ago.

And how can a supposedly serious journalist like Bergman solemnly repeat the latest popular argument of the Iranophobes: A nuclear-armed Iran (in Barak's words) "offers an entirely different kind of protection to its proxies," Hezbollah and Hamas. That "would definitely restrict our range of operations" in any war against those so-called "proxies."

As if Iran would even consider committing national suicide to serve the interests of any Lebanese or Palestinian factions.

Yet the myth of "poor little Israel, surrounded by fanatic enemies bent on destroying it" is so pervasive here in the U.S., most readers might easily take this Iranophobic article at face value, forgetting the absurd premises underlying all arguments that Israel "must" attack Iran.

What American readers think is key here. Most Israelis do believe that (as Bergman puts it) Israel needs "the support of other nations to survive." It's a crucial piece of their myth of insecurity. And the only nation that really supports them any more is the U.S. So Israel won't attack Iran without a green light from Washington.

Bergman glibly asserts that there's some "unspoken understanding that America should agree, at least tacitly, to Israeli military actions." For years, though, a torrent of reports from Washington have all agreed that both the White House and the Pentagon, under both the Bush and Obama administrations, would refuse to support an Israeli attack on Iran. The consequences for the U.S. are too drastic to even consider it. Why should that change now?

Bergman's article ignores the obvious answer, the most crucial missing piece in his picture: Barack Obama wants to get re-elected nine months from now. Despite what the headlines tell us, he doesn't really have to worry about pleasing hawkish Jewish opinion. Most American Jews want him to work harder for peaceful settlements in the Middle East.

What Obama does have to worry about is Republicans using words like these (which Bergman tucks into his article as if he were paid by the GOP): "The Obama administration has abandoned any aggressive strategy that would ensure the prevention of a nuclear Iran and is merely playing a game of words to appease them." Only a dyed-in-the-wool Iranophobe would believe the charge that Obama is an "appeaser." But we are already hearing it from his would-be opponents.

Obama also has to worry about fantasies like the one Bergman offers (apparently in all seriousness) of Iranian operatives smuggling nukes into Texas. Republicans will happily spread that story, too.

All of this could be laughed off as absurdity if the American conversation about Israel were based on reality. Israel, the Middle East's only nuclear power now and for the foreseeable future, is perfectly safe from Iranian attack. Indeed, Israel is safe from any attack, as the strength of its (largely U.S.-funded) military and the history of its war success proves.

But as long as the myth of Israel's insecurity pervades American political life, an incumbent desperate to get re-elected just might feel forced to let the Israelis attack Iran. The only thing that would stand in the way is a better informed American electorate. Apparently that's not what the New York Times Magazine sees as its mission.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ira-chernus/israel-iran-attack_b_1240510.html?ref=media

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

World crude oil prices will go up sharply.Then natural rubber prices will follow As sri Lankans we will feel the impact more becoz we get oil from Iran on credit basis (3 months)and may be to lower rate than world market.
Tension in middle east will badly affect our tea industry also.
Iran has funded for many big projects in SL and that will be curtailed.
Oil prices will remain high as this war will drag up 10-15years(experience in Iraq and Afganistan)

hawklk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

If that were to happen, get ready for World War III...... affraid

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

If world war 111 begins disaster will be unimaginable.
But I think USA and allied troops will ruin Iran just like Iraq.Though it is said that Iran has nuclear power(mass destructive weapons) ,finally USA will tell themselves Iran doesn't have any nuclear weapons .
In this game Iran will have to bat alone.They will be helpless.
Ultimately British American companies will own oil companies in Iran.(that is the clear hidden purpose of this)
In Libiya this is happening right now and happened in Iraq.

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Expert
Expert

This is a Master Plan by US to pull down China and to stop Iran developing its nuclear expertism. This UNCHR resolution in Geneva against SL is also part and parcel of the game. SL heavily depends on both China and Iran. and SL seen as one of Chinas main Naval base. We will know in coming days with Indias moves what everyones upto and what SL has to do

Israel is the worlds 6th powerful nuclear state. has more than 100 nuclear weapons, and can bring destructions to Iran 2000 times grater than what happened in Hiroshima/Nagasaki.Iran yet to produce first nuc weapon So this will be another cake walk for US.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin

Thanks for sharing at this precise moment.
Fingers cross.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Why people are trying to become the 2012 as the end of the world?

lokuayya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

seems global markets just ignore the iran issue and continue to rally .in contrast we are looking for a reasons get panic and dump.
just like "addana inna minihage ehata agillen anna wage".































mra

mra
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

if war broke out what will be the situation of our poor cse. ASI may again travel down to 2500 level/-???

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