Yes there were some people who predicted the down trend last year. Good job to predict early. I recall Tubal was amongst the first. Illuminati you also added to the predicted down trend sometime last year. Good job.
I do no personal attacks to anyone in the below comments but only my observation and thinking.
What ever the case, I don;t find it amusing to laugh when many people are suffering greatly. Amongst the gambler who deserve this there are genuine medium term investors who might not deserve the brutality. There are still overvalued share I agree. On the brighter side we saw many speculative and gambling share already getting corrected. Do we still need an overall market correction to let the remaining correct their prices? It appear now , more than the overvalued getting corrected the fundamentals are brutally getting overcorrected.
Speaking of strategies of staying away from market :
If everybody pulled out money last year will there be a stock market for anybody to come back to? If many retailers completely pulled out not to return until their ideal conditions are met, these drops would have been even more brutal with lesser participation. Maybe if all the "dumb retailer money" goes away , will these be enough smart money to sustain a small market like ours ( during periods of minimal HNWI or foreign participation.) If everyone is "smart to stay away" who is going to buy during these periods and keep the market going? Maybe a few may come out victorious due to others folly but that is the reality of life. But what I say is we should not laugh at others misery. Specially at those who did not gamble but got caught in middle of a bad downtrend to see some of their fundamental shares trading at forward PE of 3-5. I really hope when a bull trend starts they will be rewarded handsomely.
I at this time also fondly remember the retailers who kept the market going ( and broker huts surviving) when foreign and HNWI participation was minimal. Broker please note it too.
We all (should) agree at one point a correction was highly due when PE was running at an unsustainable 20-29. Now we got the correction. Or maybe an over-correction? Isn't it time to have some consolidation
before next trend. I am not talking about a bull run which is a different story.
Do we really deserve to have constant falling market? Is our overall company performance that bad. Is our country heading to complete disaster?
If we go like this a little more , we are soon to become the worst performing in the world from the best performing.
Who is responsible for this extremes. When at one point Market PE was 25. Then we raised it to 29 even when we knew it was overvalued. Now according to some sources the PE should be around 11-12. So now we want to lower it to 8-9 is it.?
Can we blame only us retailers. Are there other parties involved ?. Quite frankly most Sri Lankans live on extremes, minimal planning and overreaction in happiness or sadness. The overnight rupee devaluation fiasco ( not gradual), then draining foreign reserves to extremes and now suddenly letting rupee free float is another example of this extreme unplanned behavior. Expropriation without justification of some companies is another.
Corrections and uptrends are both natural. But am not sure our market is behaving naturally lately. Are there any external factors affecting investor confidence other than the obvious temporary global and local negatives.
Thanks to BSE, we seems to be one step ahead. But it is high time we take leaves from other Asia countries. Look at their last year performance and this year performance. They had corrections and also uptrends when necessary. We seems to be heading only in one direction without breaks. At extremes.
We Sri Lankans as a collective group needs to plan more, love and believe in ourselves and country, not think about personal benefit only and introduce moderation into our lives. Be it stock market or life.