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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DIESEL & MOTOR ENGINEERING PLC (DIMO.N0000)

DIESEL & MOTOR ENGINEERING PLC (DIMO.N0000)

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lemuria


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
@lemuria wrote:last 3 months results R evidence of da new trend ;(




Was the last 3 month results really that bad? How much do you think DIMO earnings will drop and according to your estimates what kind of PE and price should we expect for this in the future?

@lemuria wrote:Count this on. Da growth'll be fast diminishing for motor vehicle sector. can expect a negative growth too.

Do you think they might make losses with the new trend?

Mate, I meant negative growth NOT loss. Last quarter has a NEGATIVE GROWTH. Did u see it.

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@lemuria wrote:
@slstock wrote:
@lemuria wrote:last 3 months results R evidence of da new trend ;(




Was the last 3 month results really that bad? How much do you think DIMO earnings will drop and according to your estimates what kind of PE and price should we expect for this in the future?

@lemuria wrote:Count this on. Da growth'll be fast diminishing for motor vehicle sector. can expect a negative growth too.

Do you think they might make losses with the new trend?

Mate, I meant negative growth NOT loss. Last quarter has a NEGATIVE GROWTH. Did u see it.

We are already experiencing negative growth due to external factors and policies. EPS dropped from a whopping over RS 100+ from last year to Rs 80.So the negativity is a given and they cannot report earnign of Rs 100 for every quarter.

But you said growth will be fast diminishing. From what you said as you seem to be knowlegable . What can of impact DIMo will have with the fast diminishing earnings( negative growth). What kind of share valuation do you think DIMO. Now trading at Rs 1000 should have? What kind of earnign drop do you think we can expect?

lemuria


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Earnings drop so the share price drop; a general theory. I expect 20% to 50% earnings drop unless new investments in other sectors.

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@lemuria wrote:Earnings drop so the share price drop; a general theory. I expect 20% to 50% earnings drop unless new investments in other sectors.

Just becuz earnings drop share price dont drop all the time.. Have u not seen last time CARS group fell in their financials and before the financials out there was a good run.. Even after the results out there was not much of a drop due to that..

However motor sector cannot show the same performance as last year due to the latest fuel saga.. With so much hype of a rise in fuel in near future who can maintain a vehicle? A person with an income of 50-60K cannot maintain a vehicle other than a maruti now ;(

lemuria


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:
@lemuria wrote:Earnings drop so the share price drop; a general theory. I expect 20% to 50% earnings drop unless new investments in other sectors.

Just becuz earnings drop share price dont drop all the time.. Have u not seen last time CARS group fell in their financials and before the financials out there was a good run.. Even after the results out there was not much of a drop due to that..

However motor sector cannot show the same performance as last year due to the latest fuel saga.. With so much hype of a rise in fuel in near future who can maintain a vehicle? A person with an income of 50-60K cannot maintain a vehicle other than a maruti now ;(

Mate,

I talked abt general theory, there can be exceptions like "exceptional demand theory". Anyway mate wat is da relationship between Carsons & DIMO. I see a strong correlation betn DIMO share price & DIMO's earnings.

Mate take last year AR of DIMO. Go to 10 year summary. Look at da EPS & share price.

In 2010 directors sold 87,000 shares & in 2011 June july another 50,000. why?

Exchange rate crisis will affect this share badly.

DIMO imports & sells MV, super profits cannot be maintained for too long.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@lemuria wrote:
Mate,

I talked abt general theory, there can be exceptions like "exceptional demand theory". Anyway mate wat is da relationship between Carsons & DIMO. I see a strong correlation betn DIMO share price & DIMO's earnings.

Mate take last year AR of DIMO. Go to 10 year summary. Look at da EPS & share price.

In 2010 directors sold 87,000 shares & in 2011 June july another 50,000. why?

Exchange rate crisis will affect this share badly.

DIMO imports & sells MV, super profits cannot be maintained for too long.

CARS was taken as an example to mention the share price scenario, BLUE, RGEM were another drama episodes of this.. DIMO reached a high price in a shorter time span in 2010 from 500s to over 1000s so directors might've thought of booking profits Wink we never know as there's no point in following directors.

Ur correct mate... due to rupee devaluation they'll have to increase their vehicle prices then the demand will come down. That's why I said, an average person with a good salary even cant maintain his own vehicle other than a Maruti now..

There's no question about their revenue being hit.. On the other hand haven't they got a wide range of vehicles from SUVs to Nanos?? But anyways they cant up profits in a big way selling nanos.. Wink

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@lemuria wrote:
@smallville wrote:
@lemuria wrote:Earnings drop so the share price drop; a general theory. I expect 20% to 50% earnings drop unless new investments in other sectors.

Just becuz earnings drop share price dont drop all the time.. Have u not seen last time CARS group fell in their financials and before the financials out there was a good run.. Even after the results out there was not much of a drop due to that..

However motor sector cannot show the same performance as last year due to the latest fuel saga.. With so much hype of a rise in fuel in near future who can maintain a vehicle? A person with an income of 50-60K cannot maintain a vehicle other than a maruti now ;(

Mate,

I talked abt general theory, there can be exceptions like "exceptional demand theory". Anyway mate wat is da relationship between Carsons & DIMO. I see a strong correlation betn DIMO share price & DIMO's earnings.



Mate take last year AR of DIMO. Go to 10 year summary. Look at da EPS & share price.

In 2010 directors sold 87,000 shares & in 2011 June july another 50,000. why?

Exchange rate crisis will affect this share badly.
DIMO imports & sells MV, super profits cannot be maintained for too long.


Director's selling does not always indicate a future price drop. Also it is not a pure signal to sell. Many directors in several companies have sold their shares and only after sold they realise the situation. Just look at CLPL. What happened? Chairman/MD sold his majorty share holding around 60/- if I am correct. After couple of months price went up to around 150/- At that time CLPL was not a consistent profit making company too. In DIMO only 2 directors have sold a little % of their share holdings. This is mainly a family concern before listing. May be some family members(also the directors of the company )wanted some cash for some purpose. We dont know No?


Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Code:
Sri Lanka's banks urged to limit credit for cars
Mar 14, 2012 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's central bank has asked banks to limit credit to buy motor cars, in a bid to reduce imports, as the country faced balance of payments pressure and lost more than a quarter of its foreign reserves.

http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=833897977

What would be the next threat to this sector? Is it the increase of imports duty?

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Monster wrote:
Code:
Sri Lanka's banks urged to limit credit for cars
Mar 14, 2012 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's central bank has asked banks to limit credit to buy motor cars, in a bid to reduce imports, as the country faced balance of payments pressure and lost more than a quarter of its foreign reserves.

http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=833897977

What would be the next threat to this sector? Is it the increase of imports duty?

But the below also should b e noted in the same article. But anyway the overall motor sector obviously will not be able to sustain the current earnings in the future as demand goes down.

'The Central Bank said vehicle dealers had built up large inventories of cars over the past few months and banks may "prudently consider the limitation of credit for the import of motor vehicles, which would, in turn, lead to the easing of pressure on import expenditure."

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
There were rumors on another Fuel price hike which can negatively impact the entire motor trade.. If fuel price surge to 160+, I think we'll have to order some bikes for traveling.. Wink

If the loans and leases are made limited the profitability of all these financial institutions may dip too..

But director selling is not an indication of a downtrend.. Directors are also ppl like us so they may have even got cash requirements.. Selling 100 DIMO gives u over 1 lak... Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.. If u have 30K DIMO means u can buy a good vehicle those days know???

lemuria


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:There were rumors on another Fuel price hike which can negatively impact the entire motor trade.. If fuel price surge to 160+, I think we'll have to order some bikes for traveling.. Wink

If the loans and leases are made limited the profitability of all these financial institutions may dip too..

But director selling is not an indication of a downtrend.. Directors are also ppl like us so they may have even got cash requirements.. Selling 100 DIMO gives u over 1 lak... Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.. If u have 30K DIMO means u can buy a good vehicle those days know???

Mate, selling 1000 or 2000 shares ok bt selling 87k & 50k a lot for DIMO when issued qty is just 8mn shares. Agreed direcs are not always correct.

Mate, "Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.." wrong mate selling 10,000 shares mean 10mn Wink 30k shares mean 30mn can go for a BMW lol!

lemuria


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
when exchange crisis cum, govt'll first touch this sector. See already CBSL action on banks to limit credits Wink

lemuria


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
telling you again DIMO drops with da expectation of earnings drop.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@lemuria wrote:

Mate, "Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.." wrong mate selling 10,000 shares mean 10mn Wink 30k shares mean 30mn can go for a BMW lol!


Correct correct.. A typical typo.. my math is very bad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

What if directors wanted to buy BMW or Merc? Wink

lemuria


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:
@lemuria wrote:

Mate, "Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.." wrong mate selling 10,000 shares mean 10mn Wink 30k shares mean 30mn can go for a BMW lol!


Correct correct.. A typical typo.. my math is very bad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

What if directors wanted to buy BMW or Merc? Wink

Directors emoluments 82mn for 2010/11, 7 executive directors. They wont sell shares to buy cars Wink.

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@lemuria wrote:when exchange crisis cum, govt'll first touch this sector. See already CBSL action on banks to limit credits Wink
This is mostly expected and it has happened. What would be next hit to this sector. Can there be a another fuel hike?

It seems, DIMO is trying to stabilize at Rs 750/- level.

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I have 100 shares of DIMO, at the moment i am very carefully watching the price moments of the DIMO, yes it SEEMS that it try to stabilize at this price level, on 02nd and 03rd i noted huge selling pressure!

I am plan to enter in to this one, based on the trends expected, also note that i generally buy with medium to long term investment!

I may be wrong at the selection, but patiently watching the moments

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
guys please dont misunderstand me,
but this share is under NON PERFORMING SHARES category in my list...(in my trading view)

last time when it was at 700 levels(before motor sector runs),my broker advised me to buy COLO or UML instead of DIMO,so as i remember i bought COLO at 100 and sold at 300.. Smile

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote:guys please dont misunderstand me,
but this share is under NON PERFORMING SHARES category in my list...(in my trading view)

last time when it was at 700 levels(before motor sector runs),my broker advised me to buy COLO or UML instead of DIMO,so as i remember i bought COLO at 100 and sold at 300.. Smile

Friend i wel come ur thoughts, everybody should tell their view point, and it will differ from person to person, i also made huge profits on COLO, and i prefer that for short term investment, UML i didn't follow

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:I have 100 shares of DIMO, at the moment i am very carefully watching the price moments of the DIMO, yes it SEEMS that it try to stabilize at this price level, on 02nd and 03rd i noted huge selling pressure!

I am plan to enter in to this one, based on the trends expected, also note that i generally buy with medium to long term investment!

I may be wrong at the selection, but patiently watching the moments
I have got in to this share many times and got profit as well loss. But I am not going to get in to this share at this moment due to high risk. My best investment was last year. I entered at 750/- and sold it at Rs 1750/- after holding two months.

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@Gaja wrote:
@mark wrote:guys please dont misunderstand me,
but this share is under NON PERFORMING SHARES category in my list...(in my trading view)

last time when it was at 700 levels(before motor sector runs),my broker advised me to buy COLO or UML instead of DIMO,so as i remember i bought COLO at 100 and sold at 300.. Smile

Friend i wel come ur thoughts, everybody should tell their view point, and it will differ from person to person, i also made huge profits on COLO, and i prefer that for short term investment, UML i didn't follow


ya ya sir Smile
COLO can be a short term play if buy below 235 and sold back quickly Smile

we know that there is many shares with high fundamentals,but not performing well in the market,so traders normally shift from them and rotate to performing shares whether funda or not,
btw as today trades RENU,CINS,ALLI,SOY can be good short term shares as per today prices.. Smile

greedy

greedy
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Few guys have given strong warning on this share before bad news came out! I also feel a gloomy outlook but I don't expect this sector to get worst like before 2009.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:I have 100 shares of DIMO, at the moment i am very carefully watching the price moments of the DIMO, yes it SEEMS that it try to stabilize at this price level, on 02nd and 03rd i noted huge selling pressure!

I am plan to enter in to this one, based on the trends expected, also note that i generally buy with medium to long term investment!

I may be wrong at the selection, but patiently watching the moments

Gaja, I mentioned about Dimo several times on the forum so I sill summarize..Firstly it will be better to watch and wait a bit to enter . Dimo is currently trading below Nav.I am not sure whether people expect this company to make
several quarters of losses the way they are selling. I see lot of negativity on this share specially by short/medium term players.this might be the highest eps company ( short term) at cse but have been severly underperforming.

The price now is below trading price in 2010 july.In2010 when it was trading at rs 800 , nav was 270 and eps 17!

sheer negativity and mentality about the tax hike is killing this share short term. But if we look deeper in to political structure and portfolio nature of this company in d present market , I see this is still one of the strongest in the sector if not the most. Their exposure to passenger vehicles are lesser. Some vehicles they sell have tax benefits. So these drop might underestimate dimo performence in bear market. Ofcourse there will be profit drops but does dimo deserve to trade lower and will the company make lesser than rs17 eps? Short term players can answer that. I commented here as you look at longer term picture. Short term we all saw what happens.

There was some collection around rs 1000 to 1040 also as you might have seen before the bad news.

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Well, i hope the forum must have this kind of constructive arguments

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I agree with slstock. Even if the annual EPS drops to Rs 100/-, it deserve to trade at Rs 1000/-. However, due to negative market sentiment, share price may drop little bit further. I may be wrong.

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