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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » I'm not buying any stocks until the ASPI comes down to 6200 !!!

I'm not buying any stocks until the ASPI comes down to 6200 !!!

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mono


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
this should have gone into the jokes sections.

22I'm not buying any stocks until the ASPI comes down to 6200 !!! - Page 2 Empty Black Swan Theory, Anybody? Thu Mar 10, 2011 6:18 pm

Antonym


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@undervalued: Going by the feedback, you might as well have said, "I'm not buying any stocks until hell freezes over." All of us seem to have arrived at a cozy consensus that a decline of 16% is next to impossible.

But, let's look at the facts -
The CSE @ 6,200 represents a market PE of 23.5X (trailing).
Even if you take forward PE, that would be about 15X, I think.
Now, that doesn't look so unrealistic, does it?

It pays to be a contrarian: Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:@undervalued: Going by the feedback, you might as well have said, "I'm not buying any stocks until hell freezes over." All of us seem to have arrived at a cozy consensus that a decline of 16% is next to impossible.

But, let's look at the facts -
The CSE @ 6,200 represents a market PE of 23.5X (trailing).
Even if you take forward PE, that would be about 15X, I think.
Now, that doesn't look so unrealistic, does it?

It pays to be a contrarian: Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

Antonym, I hope you didn't include me in that 'everyone'. I am not saying ASPI will drop to 6200 but like you, I am saying the correction will be deeper than what most people think it will be.

As you might have noticed there have been several discussions about the validity of the ASI including one started by me, where I mentioned that the market has actually been declining since the first week of february though the index is up. http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t1431-the-market-has-been-declining-for-a-month#9302

What I am going to do over the weekend is to create my home made index. It will essentially be the ASI but without the illiquids. We might even find that it's already at 6200 Suspect

Antonym


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
What I am going to do over the weekend is to create my home made index. It will essentially be the ASI but without the illiquids. We might even find that it's already at 6200 Suspect

Superb idea, tubal!

Maybe if you share the initial methodology and derived index values with the forum, we could be following the TSI (tubal's share index) instead of the ASI in the days to come! Just out of curiosity - What date are you taking as the base?

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Even after we remove CARS group and look at the index, my guess is the ASI would stand at nearly 6800-7000 like tubel said, but I dont expect this goes much down.. it may be too soon to predict the market is gonna up, but today last few mins, it showed some good momentum.. If these CFLB, LCEY shares gonna go up with some banking and financials & some construction.. we may see it up again.. at least I'm optimistic ;-)

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:
@tubal wrote:
What I am going to do over the weekend is to create my home made index. It will essentially be the ASI but without the illiquids. We might even find that it's already at 6200 Suspect

Superb idea, tubal!

Maybe if you share the initial methodology and derived index values with the forum, we could be following the TSI (tubal's share index) instead of the ASI in the days to come! Just out of curiosity - What date are you taking as the base?

I don't think we need to go too far back in time. Jan 01, 2010 I think might be a good starting point. I am thinking of normalizing it by setting the figure equal to the ASI on that date. The plan is to use the market cap as they do with the ASI. Of course that means splits, bonuses and rights need to be accounted for. So I guess it could be more than one weekend's work.

Meta Trader

Meta Trader
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
@Antonym wrote:
@tubal wrote:
What I am going to do over the weekend is to create my home made index. It will essentially be the ASI but without the illiquids. We might even find that it's already at 6200 Suspect

Superb idea, tubal!

Maybe if you share the initial methodology and derived index values with the forum, we could be following the TSI (tubal's share index) instead of the ASI in the days to come! Just out of curiosity - What date are you taking as the base?

I don't think we need to go too far back in time. Jan 01, 2010 I think might be a good starting point. I am thinking of normalizing it by setting the figure equal to the ASI on that date. The plan is to use the market cap as they do with the ASI. Of course that means splits, bonuses and rights need to be accounted for. So I guess it could be more than one weekend's work.

+ Rep from me

what a wonderful idea Twisted Evil

looking forward to TSI Twisted Evil

madu1977


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@undervalued wrote:6200 is my entering point, which is gonna happen very soon!!. There will be more panic sellers tomorrow. Entire market is going through that correction which was needed for quite a long time. Most stocks are already overvalued.

Mr.UNDERVALUVE,
You have to wait next genaration for buy stock.market will never come to what you predict this is your day dream... ASI 7100 LEVEL next resistent level buy good fundamental now on discounted price...you will miss big time see the miracle will have on after 21 st of this month...... Very Happy Smile

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
according to my calculations the market to continue with the current bullish trend it needs to pass 7500. if the rally today fails to reach 7500 we are heading towards 7200.

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tubal: Hope you had a productive weekend, my friend.

How's 'Project TSI' going? Are we at 6,200 yet - without the illiquid shares?

ShareShares


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I collected few shares today, some chips are lower than December level. Current levels were the best I could collect after long period.

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