Can ASI slip to 4000 soon?

In my view, the present level of ASI (near 5000) is some sort of equilibrium level: not too high or too low. So, if it goes further down, that means the market will be attractive.

Does anyone think ASI may reach near 4000 within this month or next?
Well, I am planning for that.

nop..We need a very very very huge external incident to make ASI at 4000..
it cldnt be happens in short or mid term due to supply and demand forces..
btw no idea abt long term..

I dont think ASI will go that down

No, it cannot happen!

When the ASI peaked at 7800 last year I do not think any one in their wildest dreams thought the ASI would drop to 7000. When it was 7000 a few thought that it may reach 6000. At ASI 6000 a few more predicted that it would reach 5000. Now a lot more people think it is a matter of time 5000 would be broken. Are there any reasons why it should not happen, considering the grave economic situation the country is faced with? That sums up the recent performance of the SCAM exchange.

mark wrote:nop..We need a very very very huge external incident to make ASI at 4000..
it cldnt be happens in short or mid term due to supply and demand forces..
btw no idea abt long term..

Spot on @Mark!
That's what I was also thinking about. Can there be a 'big bang' external event this month?
'Geneva' could be one of the possibilities: I hope not (as a Sri Lankan); but there is a possibility; it's just a feeling.

ASI will come down for sure!
Unable to give you an exact figure! I'm sorry!

I really don't care about anything!
But I'm prepared with 100% cash to seize any opportunity at any given time!

hunter wrote:

mark wrote:nop..We need a very very very huge external incident to make ASI at 4000..
it cldnt be happens in short or mid term due to supply and demand forces..
btw no idea abt long term..

Spot on @Mark!
That's what I was also thinking about. Can there be a 'big bang' external event this month?
'Geneva' could be one of the possibilities: I hope not (as a Sri Lankan); but there is a possibility; it's just a feeling.

I dont think Geneva could be a possibility.. this time it is nothing other than plan for implementing its own (Gov) LLRC recommendations.
What about attack on Iran and sky rocketing of oil prices. But now Iran has agreed for discussions

wiki wrote:

hunter wrote:

mark wrote:nop..We need a very very very huge external incident to make ASI at 4000..
it cldnt be happens in short or mid term due to supply and demand forces..
btw no idea abt long term..

Spot on @Mark!
That's what I was also thinking about. Can there be a 'big bang' external event this month?
'Geneva' could be one of the possibilities: I hope not (as a Sri Lankan); but there is a possibility; it's just a feeling.

I dont think Geneva could be a possibility.. this time it is nothing other than plan for implementing its own (Gov) LLRC recommendations.
What about attack on Iran and sky rocketing of oil prices. But now Iran has agreed for discussions

Well Technically that would been testing the previous low around 4700 points first.A break below 4000 points will open up further bear channel.And also fundamentally there should be a grave uncertainty in the country, imo i dont see this happening, Geneva/Iran issues will not drive ASI below from current levels, If it were to drive the market below that would have happened long time ago. Like i explained in my chart on another thread it should take off from current levels to new highs. The momentum will take to 7000 points before slight pull back to 6400 points for a short breather until 9000 points are reached. Do not forget when large economies got a beating, ours were at full steam. with all current issues in the background ASI is able to hold at 5400 levels. That is something to ponder.I am sure USA will eventually soften its stance/position on srilanka. happy trading

There's no way that ASI touching 4000.. especially with new ATS system.. although overall market go down they will manipulate ASI and make sure it's green

In my opinion, even ASI go down on coming weeks.. I don't think it will go below 5300 again.. with this new system breaking 5400 also hard it seems.. past 2 weeks ASI suppose to be red.. But it hold it's edge somehow thanks to some big crossings and new system.

stumpy wrote:ASI will come down for sure!
Unable to give you an exact figure! I'm sorry!

I really don't care about anything!
But I'm prepared with 100% cash to seize any opportunity at any given time!

i wonder what ravi k will have to say on this on political stages all over the country. these days these guys have geneva and oil prices. next would be the stock market.

stumpy wrote:ASI will come down for sure!
Unable to give you an exact figure! I'm sorry!

I really don't care about anything!
But I'm prepared with 100% cash to seize any opportunity at any given time!

stumpy, think about new playas entering the market gradually...they must have done their homework really well to invest in srilanka. im talking about the chinese they will not invest if its not attractive here right. a drop to 4000 points will not guarantee it will stop and reverse,the sentiments will be negative for investors and this will further have impact on the government. and most investors by then will start exiting....anticipating further slide. which is not good for all of us. and big playas/sharks will not like it either because they prey on small fishes like us

Inbox!

yes traderathome . If ASI drops to 4000, It will have a negative impact on investor confidence.

he he!
Do we have investor confidence now?

No ..... Never ...
But there will be another drop from mid of the next week and ASI will Touch 4800 and some time it may go some below and reach 4600. That is the lowest.... then....it will be start to go up continuously.

So... Do not be Panic sellers in the last Drop...
Buyers... it is the Best time to collect...

Regards,
Ananth

yes . As a day trader I have the confidence.

So you're a trader!
Nice to meet you!

Investor Confidence is a totally different subject boss!
We animals can't figure it out!

Ok lets imagine currently investor confidence is low. you think If ASI drops to 4000 then confidence will be improved.

I am human being who can understand the reality.

Ananth wrote:No ..... Never ...
But there will be another drop from mid of the next week and ASI will Touch 4800 and some time it may go some below and reach 4600. That is the lowest.... then....it will be start to go up continuously.

So... Do not be Panic sellers in the last Drop...
Buyers... it is the Best time to collect...

Regards,
Ananth

not sure of the timings,this will be a double bottom reversal.good we both speak the same language. This is possible if ASI dont break 5700 level to establish a change in the trend break-out.

Appuhamy wrote:
Ok lets imagine currently investor confidence is low. you think If ASI drops to 4000 then confidence will be improved.

I am human being who can understand the reality.

Apoooh nagh!
I didn't say anything like that!

CSE doesn't have investor confidence from 2011 February!

possible

Hi everybody,

It's after a long pause I return to this forum. I was watching the talk on and off but did not bother to post since I took a break from the markets once the 7000 mark was broken. And it proved a wise choice as it almost crashed to 5000 level since then.

So here I am, back in the forum, but not back to the market. I see that there is talk on inverter confidence. The problem with this forum is that almost 95% here are traders, most of them very very short term traders in fact. So we only hear part of the story, investors might be reading this, but I'm quite sure they care little to post.

So my point is that it is quite possible for the ASI to reach 4000. All you need is one or two big guns to draw back and the panic it creates will do the rest. That's what brought the market from 7800 to 5000. So it does not have to do much to go further down in 1000 points or so.

The economy of the country is at a very grave stage. Even if Geneva talks end without too much harm, it will do no good to the economy. The economy will continue to go down and the market cannot hold on on its own.

As mentioned, the best strategy at this point would be to hold on to cash and see what happens in the weeks to come. After all, the market can go down to 4000, but it will always bounce back to heights it once was..

Thanks..

hunter wrote:In my view, the present level of ASI (near 5000) is some sort of equilibrium level: not too high or too low. So, if it goes further down, that means the market will be attractive.

Does anyone think ASI may reach near 4000 within this month or next?
Well, I am planning for that.

I don't think 4000 is in the horizon.

RSI @ 47 is neutral, however it has come up from over sold and according to past behavior there is a chance of dropping back a bit.
MACD fast line crossing over slow in the negative territory signals further up ward tendency.
Chaikin A/D Oscillator @ 199 is a extreme case and not meaning full. I think this is due to DFN data error.
Intraday Momentum Index @ 67 is slightly below over bought. ASI may drop bit more according to this
(Again with the new system it is easy to manipulate opening & closing prices, hence IMI may not meaningful)
CMF @ 0.49 tells that market is not bearish, but this does not mean it is bullish either.
(I rely on this indicator a lot to check weather it is bearish or not)

In my opinion, chances of ASI reaching 4000 within this or next month is very remote.

monash wrote:There's no way that ASI touching 4000.. especially with new ATS system.. although overall market go down they will manipulate ASI and make sure it's green

In my opinion, even ASI go down on coming weeks.. I don't think it will go below 5300 again.. with this new system breaking 5400 also hard it seems.. past 2 weeks ASI suppose to be red.. But it hold it's edge somehow thanks to some big crossings and new system.

ya ya.. The deciding factor is f..ng system..evrydy ASI gng up at last moments by 1 or 2 share trades..