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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Future of Plantations

Future of Plantations

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1Future of Plantations Empty Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:24 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Future of Plantation Sector

Plantation sector was one of the vulnerable sectors but is very important to economy at large, both interms of export income and employment generation.

The business model also skewed in favour of management compnaies, when bad times comes, managers are still protected while shareholders (ordinary) get a hit. Wage increse , cost of production are key to watch.

These times, ther is a boom in rubber & palm oil while there is drag from the TEA. but, god knows whats about the future.

2Future of Plantations Empty Re: Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:27 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:Future of Plantation Sector

Plantation sector was one of the vulnerable sectors but is very important to economy at large, both interms of export income and employment generation.

The business model also skewed in favour of management compnaies, when bad times comes, managers are still protected while shareholders (ordinary) get a hit. Wage increse , cost of production are key to watch.

These times, ther is a boom in rubber & palm oil while there is drag from the TEA. but, god knows whats about the future.

Yes, that why Plantations trade with a lower PE. They are seasonal and volatile to external factors than other sectors.

3Future of Plantations Empty Re: Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:07 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
Yes, that why Plantations trade with a lower PE. They are seasonal and volatile to external factors than other sectors.

I have never done really well with plantation shares. Sad

4Future of Plantations Empty Re: Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:41 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@mono wrote:
@slstock wrote:
Yes, that why Plantations trade with a lower PE. They are seasonal and volatile to external factors than other sectors.

I have never done really well with plantation shares. Sad

me too. so I am avoiding plantation now..

5Future of Plantations Empty Re: Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:40 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Well you have to calculate the Risks properly and make a reasonable decision. ATM plantation future is really bright for more4 than 5 companies( Rubber+ plam oil) compared to most of the other sectors.
Also not the mention the Prices of these stocks are at real bargain values. You can either identfy the value now and but cheap, or wait till some people start a huge add campaign to promote shares after some time when the share price has already doubled from its current value ( Like poultry ).

6Future of Plantations Empty Re: Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:58 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
the problem with plantations here is that, one good shower can ruin a rubber crop

7Future of Plantations Empty Re: Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:18 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:the problem with plantations here is that, one good shower can ruin a rubber crop
Not really ? IT has been raining cats and dogs in the past quarter in case you forgot. Still the prices go up, and so does the profits from rubber by plantations ( the quarterly that have come out so far).

Just in case you guys are really interested in the sector and not making excuses to justyfy your already investments and not to invest in the sector I would recommend to go and read about the new rubber plantation trends and news. There are even new Rubber taping systems introducer that can collect rubber rubber even on rainy days from Sri lankan universities.

8Future of Plantations Empty Re: Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:21 pm

ControlFreak


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
What the heck.

I am in a "What a Walla".

CF

9Future of Plantations Empty Re: Future of Plantations Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:48 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote:
@mono wrote:the problem with plantations here is that, one good shower can ruin a rubber crop
Not really ? IT has been raining cats and dogs in the past quarter in case you forgot. Still the prices go up, and so does the profits from rubber by plantations ( the quarterly that have come out so far).

Just in case you guys are really interested in the sector and not making excuses to justyfy your already investments and not to invest in the sector I would recommend to go and read about the new rubber plantation trends and news. There are even new Rubber taping systems introducer that can collect rubber rubber even on rainy days from Sri lankan universities.

to the best of my knowledge, it hasn't been raining cats and dogs where plantations are located. and that little plastic hat mechanism doesn't work too well when monsoon hits. also the current high price for rubber world wide is partly because rains obliterated the Indian & Indonesian crop. And i remember an article on investnow.lk saying that the tea harvest for the first 2 weeks of january was very low due to weather conditions. it was published by mission, he always publishes plantation news. And i think the plantations suffered horrible losses in 2009 because of reduced output due to weather(not so sure on that one though). So there is no way anyone can argue that weather cannot adversely effect plantations.

I'm not saying Rubber + Palm oil won't show killer profits this quarter they will and smart people who invested in rubber heavy plantations that don't have massive tea amounts of tea will surely make money and good money. But it's difficult for any of these plantations to trade beyond a PE of 12 without significant pushing by brokerages.

on the positive side the rising oil prices would only mean that more an more people will resort to natural rubber resulting in higher demand blah blah blah.

And BTW, I do have a significant holding of NAMU. Wink

10Future of Plantations Empty Cost of Manual workers May Go up Tue Feb 01, 2011 10:53 am

milanka

milanka
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
A struggle for a pay hike for the estate workers will be launched in the near future while demanding a daily wage of Rs. 700, the Ceylon Estate Workers Union said today
Source : Dilymirror.lk of 31st Jan

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/u188

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