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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » TAFL and BFL will be SHINE & SHINE in next couple of days.

TAFL and BFL will be SHINE & SHINE in next couple of days.

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

High.Risk.High.Return

High.Risk.High.Return
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Poultry sector leaders BFL and TAFL, after the huge collections, now start their own rally. Seems to be both will shine in next couple of days.

TAFL
Last quarter EPS 5.19
Expected next 04 quarters (annualized) = 5 x4 = 20 (Say 18.0)
with the sector PER of say 15.0,
now TAFL is worth more than = EPS 18 X PER 15 = Rs 270/- LEVEL.
to me TAFL is massively undervalued.
I can see MORE THAN 50-70% RETURN.
Most possible TAFL can give more than 7.5 EPS for the 31.03.2011 end quarter, with the High toursit arrival, World Cup Demand & festival season demand.

BFL
Last quarter EPS 10.20
Expected next 04 quarters (annualized) = 10 x4 = 40
WITH their New Tax free Farm Investment they can give more than expected.
with the sector PER of say 15.0,
now BFL is worth more than = EPS 40 X PER 15 = Rs 600/- LEVEL.
to me BFL also massively undervalued.
I can see MORE THAN 50% RETURN.

One thing I can tell here now.
Poultry group will give you massive unexpected return beore end of 20th April'2011.

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hope its not a repeatation of FEb 23rd

mrdrunkenalien


Stock Trader
@salt wrote:Hope its not a repeatation of FEb 23rd
What happened then??

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Now most people know I hold a lot of BFL, so i'm being honest here. BFL volumes are too low IMHO.

BenZ

BenZ
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
My personnel view is, todays rally is just a election injection ....

They have a good value more than current levels. But i expect TAFL, GRAN comes down to 150 levels before their next report comes out.

kuk83

kuk83
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@BenZ wrote:My personnel view is, todays rally is just a election injection ....

They have a good value more than current levels. But i expect TAFL, GRAN comes down to 150 levels before their next report comes out.

Question Question Question Very Happy

dimuthubas


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@BenZ wrote:My personnel view is, todays rally is just a election injection ....

They have a good value more than current levels. But i expect TAFL, GRAN comes down to 150 levels before their next report comes out.



lol! lol! wake-up, wake-up maaaan...
I think ur still sleeping/Dreaming... Otherwise how you say those should come down to 150/= level.. Just Explain to us, ur dream my friend..

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
[quote="mrdrunkenalien"]
@salt wrote:Hope its not a repeatation of FEb 23rd
What happened then??
[/quote

If you look at market price movement , you will understand.

My fear was such that it is only a life breath and then again will move in their downward journey. I sold part of paultry stocks today.

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
No matter what we assume we will have to wait and see Smile.....poultry taking in to consideration the forward PER and growth looks good even at todays prices....but there are quite a few more shares out there even at these levels that look good .....all this credit clearing japanese quake...middle east crisis they are all temprorary look at end of this year (Provided there are no untoward incidents and Natural disasters ets) ASPI MPI and Growth stocks would have appreciated in value.


Happy Hunting !

hotstock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@BenZ wrote:My personnel view is, todays rally is just a election injection ....

They have a good value more than current levels. But i expect TAFL, GRAN comes down to 150 levels before their next report comes out.

You may be correct or wrong as the future is unpredictable..

but if i had sold my shares at the bottom (panic selling) even I would have made a comment like that ... lol!

BenZ

BenZ
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@hotstock wrote:
@BenZ wrote:My personnel view is, todays rally is just a election injection ....

They have a good value more than current levels. But i expect TAFL, GRAN comes down to 150 levels before their next report comes out.

You may be correct or wrong as the future is unpredictable..

but if i had sold my shares at the bottom (panic selling) even I would have made a comment like that ... lol!


Lolz. I sold well before. TAFL @ 200 and GRAN @ 220 Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

rajithasamaranayake


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Reading this post exactly after 4 months, I wonder how many of you fell prey to high.risk.high.return bogus analysis. His/her stats at that time would have looked extremely attractive to unsuspecting investors. I feel sorry for the investors who went along with this analysis and held on to their TAFL, BFL and may be even GRAN.

He/she had deliberately not mentioned that TAFL has a carried forward loss of Rs. (476) Mn. His projection of Rs. 7.50 EPS in 2011 1st Q looks a fantasy dream when compared with the hard reality (actual Rs. 1.75 subsequently reported by TAFL)

This situation is very true even for today. On a daily basis I see hopeful investors anticipating a recovery..today will be green.. tomorrow will be green..next week.. next month and so on.. I am sure when we look back at our own comments 3 months down the line we all will know the reality by then. Please remember

1. CSE had a BULL RUN IN 2010. Everything which goes up naturally comes down too. The slide has just begun and there is long way to go down the road within the next 5 months. THERE WON'T BE ANOTHER BULL RUN IN 2011

2. The brewing economic crisis in US & European markets will definitely have an impact on our tourism. It is rather unfortunate that this is happening at a time when our tourism has just started to pick up. So when you select your Hotel stock please research well whether their earnings are dependent on visitors from those countries

Let's hope for the best in the macro front both locally and internationally so that CSE could perhaps consolidate rather than continually fall

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