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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Fake rally

Fake rally

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Fake rally Empty Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 1:47 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Fake rally

Is it a fake rally today?
Will it be a persistent rally starting from support level of 7,000

2Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 2:35 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
there is something wrong. i smell this as an attempt of keeping ASI above the 7000 mark while clearing debts. they may have paused debt clearing for these 2~3 days. but ASI 7000 is the support. not a technical one. it is created one by brokers and SEC as my feeling.

just panic buying of small scale. look at BFL, TAFL and CFLB. low volume to support this price.
will see......
bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce

3Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 2:38 pm

kuk83

kuk83
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:Fake rally

Is it a fake rally today?
Will it be a persistent rally starting from support level of 7,000

Most probably deb clearance over.ll see... I think this is the turn that we expected.
Arrow Arrow

4Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:34 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Well this is why I made that post yesterday about turning away the life raft (and got jumped on. Still putting medicine on the bruises)

5Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:42 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@xmart wrote:there is something wrong. i smell this as an attempt of keeping ASI above the 7000 mark while clearing debts. they may have paused debt clearing for these 2~3 days. but ASI 7000 is the support. not a technical one. it is created one by brokers and SEC as my feeling.

just panic buying of small scale. look at BFL, TAFL and CFLB. low volume to support this price.
will see......
bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce

TAFL volume was 360K
CFLB volume 134K
BFL 49K

I'd say TAFL and CFLB have solid volume support

6Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 6:48 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:
@xmart wrote:there is something wrong. i smell this as an attempt of keeping ASI above the 7000 mark while clearing debts. they may have paused debt clearing for these 2~3 days. but ASI 7000 is the support. not a technical one. it is created one by brokers and SEC as my feeling.

just panic buying of small scale. look at BFL, TAFL and CFLB. low volume to support this price.
will see......
bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce

TAFL volume was 360K
CFLB volume 134K
BFL 49K

I'd say TAFL and CFLB have solid volume support

At the price CFLB & TAFL trade, the volume looks quite good to me...

7Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 8:13 pm

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Check this out and you will see whats fake and whats real Smile

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t1844-could-asi-hold-the-previous-support-line#12790

8Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 8:56 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:Check this out and you will see whats fake and whats real Smile

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t1844-could-asi-hold-the-previous-support-line#12790

Gann no one disputes your observation that the market found support. What the original poster is asking about is what happened next. As a technical analyst I think you would know better than anyone else that markets almost never have V shaped bottoms. (Though we had one in november it didn't hold). The only time V bottoms are seen is when the market drops due to a natural disaster or something similar which fortunately hasn't happened.

9Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 8:57 pm

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
@gann wrote:Check this out and you will see whats fake and whats real Smile

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t1844-could-asi-hold-the-previous-support-line#12790

Gann no one disputes your observation that the market found support. What the original poster is asking about is what happened next. As a technical analyst I think you would know better than anyone else that markets almost never have V shaped bottoms. (Though we had one in november it didn't hold). The only time V bottoms are seen is when the market drops due to a natural disaster or something similar which fortunately hasn't happened.

read the wapo effect and scam in that post.

10Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 9:03 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:
@tubal wrote:
@gann wrote:Check this out and you will see whats fake and whats real Smile

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t1844-could-asi-hold-the-previous-support-line#12790

Gann no one disputes your observation that the market found support. What the original poster is asking about is what happened next. As a technical analyst I think you would know better than anyone else that markets almost never have V shaped bottoms. (Though we had one in november it didn't hold). The only time V bottoms are seen is when the market drops due to a natural disaster or something similar which fortunately hasn't happened.

read the wapo effect and scam in that post.

Yes Gann, I know about the WAPO effect too. That's why I made a suggestion long ago that we need a new index without the illiquids. The index should be based on the market cap - not just the price because the ASI is based on the market cap.

http://www.cse.lk/sectors/home.htm

11Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 9:26 pm

Meta Trader

Meta Trader
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:
@mono wrote:
@xmart wrote:there is something wrong. i smell this as an attempt of keeping ASI above the 7000 mark while clearing debts. they may have paused debt clearing for these 2~3 days. but ASI 7000 is the support. not a technical one. it is created one by brokers and SEC as my feeling.

just panic buying of small scale. look at BFL, TAFL and CFLB. low volume to support this price.
will see......
bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce

TAFL volume was 360K
CFLB volume 134K
BFL 49K

I'd say TAFL and CFLB have solid volume support

At the price CFLB & TAFL trade, the volume looks quite good to me...

the fun part is this Exclamation

one director bought just 900 shares ( Embarassed Embarassed geek geek ) on yesterday
and out of the blue every one started buy more than that director bought geek

another insider leak geek

P.S
company secretaries are very fast on informing when directors are buying bounce but last time they were very lazy on informing the famous sellings at 550 . Sleep Sleep Sleep

12Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 9:37 pm

duke


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
While market was going down yesterday morning WAPO.R jumped by 12.5% in a single 100 share transaction (also BUKI). What could this mean?

13Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 10:18 pm

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
The only time V bottoms are seen is when the market drops due to a natural disaster or something similar which fortunately hasn't happened.


so you would agree that the v bottom argument does not apply here for the asi because of the wapo effect. thats why i have excluded the time period that was in effect for analysis and plotted roughly the true asi chart.

So the safest way to get the current asi value is to average the corresponding asi values of couple of liquid stocks when they were trading at current prices in the past.

14Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 10:31 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:
@tubal wrote:
The only time V bottoms are seen is when the market drops due to a natural disaster or something similar which fortunately hasn't happened.


so you would agree that the v bottom argument does not apply here for the asi because of the wapo effect. thats why i have excluded the time period that was in effect for analysis and plotted roughly the true asi chart.

So the safest way to get the current asi value is to average the corresponding asi values of couple of liquid stocks when they were trading at current prices in the past.

Gann the WAPO effect has nothing to do with what happened yesterday and today. You can call what happened today the BUKI effect (refer to Meta Trader's post).

As I pointed out in the other thread and here , the calculation you have done without WAPO is based on a wrong assumption. The ASI is [b]NOT[/b] a value weighted price index. But a Capitalization-Weighted Index . Your true ASI chart is actually more misleading than the ASI !!

15Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 11:08 pm

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal

Who said What happened yesterday and today was on wapo effect? regardless Cap or value index it does not take into account the traded volume. so u have to disregard the asi values from jan 13 to march 11.

16Fake rally Empty Re: Fake rally Thu Mar 17, 2011 11:10 pm

duke


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
WAPO effect is nothing new it has been discussed many times from those days when people said 'market is going up but our shares are going down.' it has been explained by tubal et al. although this is the first time somebody drew a graph.
but can you squeeze the credit clearing debt into about 2500mn daily volume that has been transacted in the last 2 weeks including the 'innocent' normal transactions? i don't think so. if debit clearing is that simple 2 week process then credit clearing would not have been an issue in the last december.
in the last 2 days we saw the same thing from the CARS shares again. a jump start to trigger green. why would that happen then.
so i think those billions of credit clearing we heard is yet to come.
btw yesterday turning green was a not gradual organic green we saw end of december triggered by new margin trading accounts etc. it jumped straight up one shot.
i think xsmart is right. now stock market is being controlled so that it won't further down and systematically being fed to clear the debt. it could be to show some green in the elections days. could be.

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