FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Encyclopedia of Latest news, reviews, discussions and analysis of stock market and investment opportunities in Sri Lanka


Submit PostSubmit Post
ශ්‍රී ලංකා මූල්‍ය වංශකථාව - සිංහල
Submit Post



Latest topics

» NATIONS TRUST BANK PLC (NTB.N0000)
by chathura123 Today at 6:57 pm

» Price prediction on GRAN and TAFL
by Bakkabwoi Today at 6:22 pm

» GLAS will be winner with Super Gain.
by Nandun Today at 5:20 pm

» SEMB SEMB
by stockchaser Today at 2:57 pm

» EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)
by Vishwanarth Today at 2:54 pm

» Bullish sentiment returns with market regulator's assurance
by Vishwanarth Today at 2:52 pm

» BROWNS INVESTMENTS PLC (BIL.N0000)
by Vishwanarth Today at 1:49 pm

» SOFTLOGIC HOLDINGS PLC (SHL.N0000)
by suku502 Today at 1:32 pm

» DIPD/HAYC/HAYL
by Wickyz Today at 1:19 pm

» Chart 25.02.2021
by stockback Today at 12:41 pm

» DFCC will be receiving Rs.594,538,285.50
by David VKMS Today at 12:20 pm

» is it a good time to sell expo shares
by Kipling Today at 8:39 am

» Current 2021 Februray Unit Trust/Unit Fund Per Annum percentages
by agentnrox Today at 8:13 am

» UNHCR එකේ ලොකූ ටෝක දැම්මට සමහර ඔස්තාර් ලා කියන ආර්තික සම්භාදක අරවා මේවා මුකුත් එන්නේ නැ
by judecroos Today at 7:42 am

» Leading brokers causing market downturn
by Mithooshan Today at 7:40 am

» Must watch this video - unnecessary panic
by Jana Today at 1:03 am

» LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000)
by learningthemarket Today at 12:03 am

» Daily Foreign Transactions
by Mr. X Yesterday at 11:28 pm

» Fall seven times, stand up eight.What happened, has happened. Free your mind from it. Stock market for beginners
by Asoka Samarakone Yesterday at 9:21 pm

» RICHARD PIERIS EXPORTS PLC (REXP.N0000)
by කොටස් වෙළඳපොළ2020 Yesterday at 9:06 pm

EXPERT CHRONICLE™

ECONOMIC CHRONICLE

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

CHRONICLE™ NEWS PRODUCTS

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™

Views & Reviews, Analysis, Evaluations, Discussions, Gossip and Hot Tips relating to Sri Lankan companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE)
Contribute




DAILY CHRONICLE™

Latest news and articles published in Newspapers, Websites, Blogs and other online news sites relating to business and investments in Sri Lanka
Contribute



ECONOMIC CHRONICLE™

This is a section that provide news, views, analysis, predications relating to Political and Socio-Economic factors and how such activities affect the Stock Market and other economic activity of the Country.

Contribute




EXPERT CHRONICLE™

This is an exclusive section for Expert Articles which will help member to share knowledge through comments and responses of the members. All members are allowed to reply and make comments to these articles.

Contribute


Submit Post


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

Youtube Videos and other visual presentations relating Stock market and other investment advise submitted by members or other contributors.

Contribute


Submit Post


කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ වංශකථාව
කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ ලැයිස්තුගත සමාගම් කොටස් ගැන තොරතුරු¸විශ්ලේෂණ¸සාකච්ඡා¸ කටකතා¸රසකතා යන සියල්ල අපේම සිංහලෙන් කතා කළ හැකි ‘කතා මණ්ඩපය’

Contribute

Twitter Feeds
POPULAR COMPANIES
A

ABANS ELECTRICALS PLC

ACCESS ENGINEERING PLC Hot

ACL CABLES PLC

ACL PLASTICS PLC

ACME PRINTING & PACKAGING PLC

AGSTAR PLC

AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC

AITKEN SPENCE PLC

ANILANA HOTELS AND PROPERTIES PLC

ARPICO INSURANCE PLC

ASIA ASSET FINANCE PLC

ASIA CAPITAL PLC

B

BAIRAHA FARMS PLC

BALANGODA PLANTATIONS PLC

BIMPUTH FINANCE PLC

BLUE DIAMONDS JEWELLERY WORLDWIDE PLC

B P P L HOLDINGS PLC

BROWNS BEACH HOTELS PLC

BROWNS INVESTMENTS PLC

C

CARGO BOAT DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC

CENTRAL INDUSTRIES PLC

CEYLON COLD STORES PLC

CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC Hot

CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC

CEYLON TOBACCO COMPANY PLC

CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC

COLOMBO FORT LAND & BUILDING PLC

COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON PLC

CITRUS LEISURE PLC Hot

COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND FINANCE PLC

D

DANKOTUWA PORCELAIN PLC

DFCC BANK PLC

DIALOG AXIATA PLC

DIALOG FINANCE PLC

DIPPED PRODUCTS PLC

DISTILLERIES COMPANY OF SRI LANKA PLC

DUNAMIS CAPITAL PLC

E

EAST WEST PROPERTIES PLC Hot

EASTERN MERCHANTS PLC

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC

E-CHANNELLING PLC

F

FIRST CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC

G

GALADARI HOTELS (LANKA) PLC

GUARDIAN CAPITAL PARTNERS PLC

H

HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC

HAYLEYS PLC

HAYLEYS FABRIC PLC

HAYLEYS FIBRE PLC Hot

HEMAS HOLDINGS PLC

HIKKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC

HNB ASSURANCE PLC

HVA FOODS PLC

J

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC

JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC Hot

JOHN KEELLS HOTELS PLC

L

LANKA ASHOK LEYLAND PLC

LANKA IOC PLC

LANKEM CEYLON PLC

LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC

LAUGFS GAS PLC

LAUGFS POWER LIMITED

LOLC FINANCE PLC

LOLC HOLDINGS PLC

LUCKY LANKA MILK PROCESSING COMPANY PLC

M

MELSTACORP PLC

N

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK PLC

NATION LANKA FINANCE PLC

NESTLE LANKA PLC

O

ORIENT FINANCE PLC

OVERSEAS REALTY (CEYLON) PLC

P

PANASIAN POWER PLC

PEOPLE'S LEASING & FINANCE PLC

PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC

PRIME FINANCE PLC

R

RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC

RENUKA AGRI FOODS PLC

RENUKA CAPITAL PLC

RENUKA HOLDINGS PLC

RICHARD PIERIS AND COMPANY PLC

RICHARD PIERIS EXPORTS PLC Hot

ROYAL CERAMICS PLC

S

SAMPATH BANK PLC

SEYLAN BANK PLC

SIERRA CABLES PLC

SINGHE HOSPITALS PLC Hot

SMB LEASING PLC

SOFTLOGIC HOLDINGS PLC

SOFTLOGIC LIFE INSURANCE PLC

SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC

SWISSTEK (CEYLON) PLC Hot

T

TEEJAY LANKA PLC

TESS AGRO PLC

THREE ACRE FARMS PLC

TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC Hot

U

UNION BANK OF COLOMBO PLC

V

VALLIBEL FINANCE PLC

VALLIBEL ONE PLC Hot

VALLIBEL POWER ERATHNA PLC

W

WASKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC


You are not connected. Please login or register

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » A more dangerous trend

A more dangerous trend

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1A more dangerous trend Empty A more dangerous trend Wed Jun 20, 2012 6:38 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
By Eoghan Flanagan

Media headlines have been dominated by the political and economic travails of Greece over recent weeks, as analysts and economists debate the likelihood of a Greek exit from the eurozone and its potential implications.

However, we believe that investors’ focus on the situation in Greece is distracting them from a more important and possibly more dangerous trend occurring in the global economy.

Across the countries of the emerging world, manufacturing and trade activity is slowing very rapidly. In countries as diverse as Taiwan, Brazil, India and South Africa, industrial production is now declining year-on-year. In Korea, Russia, Mexico and Turkey, industrial production growth remains positive on a year-on-year basis, but the rate of growth has slowed significantly over the last few months and is now below 3.5% year-on-year in each of the four countries.

In China, although the official series shows production growing at 9.3% year-on-year, electricity consumption data and rail freight volumes tell a significantly different story, having slowed to a growth rate of 1.5% and 3.3% respectively. Taken together, these indicators suggest a broad-based decline in manufacturing activity across the emerging market universe that risks deepening into outright recession.

Asian export data, which normally provide a leading indicator of global supply chain activity, show similarly concerning trends. Korean and Taiwanese exports have weakened sharply over the past three months and are now declining year-on-year. Chinese exports and imports have also declined sharply.

While investors and economists often like to focus on the growth in the service sectors of emerging markets economies, industrial production has very high importance in low-income developing economies. By providing jobs and export earnings, manufacturing activity plays a crucial role in consumption growth and domestic service sector development. Thriving assembly and export sectors have been an important driver for almost all successful emerging market economies. Conversely, emerging market economies which experience declining exports due to loss of competitiveness or demand factors become rapidly dependent on foreign capital to sustain consumption. This makes them extremely vulnerable to any confidence shock or cessation in global capital flows. This dynamic has been a key factor in economic crises from the Asian crisis in 1997 and the Russian crisis in 1998 onwards.

A more dangerous trend Art10

Leading indicators of overall GDP growth in the second quarter suggest that the slowdown in manufacturing is indeed having a significantly depressing effect on economic output in emerging markets. GDP growth estimates for major emerging market economies such as Brazil, India and China are being revised significantly downwards. We believe that India may grow by less than 4% this year. Brazil may struggle to record 3% GDP growth. China could grow by less than 5%, although the officially announced GDP number will likely be higher, as in 2008 when China reported an official GDP growth rate completely at odds with all other activity indicators, due to the Chinese Communist Party’s acute sensitivity to reported economic growth rates.

Beyond emerging markets, the significant slowdown in manufacturing activity is also clear in European economies. Eurozone PMIs have tumbled from close to 50, the boundary between growth and recession, in the first quarter of this year to a current level of 45.9, suggesting a significant downshift in manufacturing that will continue over the coming months. Even in Germany, the manufacturing PMI index has fallen to 46.2, a level not seen since the fourth quarter of 2008 and indicative of significant contraction. The sharp decline in manufacturing activity in Europe’s erstwhile powerhouse economy suggests that what is happening is not “merely” the effect of Greece’s turmoil, since Greece accounts for less than 2% of European Union GDP, but a more broad-based decline, driven by global trade links and supply chains.

For now, the US remains an exception to this weakening global trend. In contrast to the rest of the world, there has been no sign of significant slowdown in US manufacturing, either on an activity or PMI basis. Manufacturing sentiment remains much stronger than global peers, with the ISM business sentiment survey at 54.8, and industrial production continues to grow at a very strong 5.2% year-on-year rate. However, readings from regional business confidence surveys are confusingly inconsistent and the rate of expansion in business payrolls has dropped sharply. These indicators may signal a weakening in industrial output. Investors should watch US data very carefully over the coming weeks, particularly with regard to business confidence surveys and activity measures. Any sign that the strength in the US manufacturing sector is fading will significantly increase concerns that global manufacturing is entering an outright recession, with dangerous implications for the global economy as a whole.

While Greece’s turmoil is dominating the headlines, investors should be at least as concerned about the recent decline in global industrial activity and trade. The financial market disruption that would be caused by a Greek banking crisis or Greece’s departure from the Eurozone would be considerably more toxic if set in an environment where global manufacturing and trade were already in decline. Additionally, policy-makers have fewer tools available to them now than they did in 2008. China is in the middle of a leadership transition and would be unlikely to launch a massive fiscal stimulus as it did in 2008. The US and the Eurozone have considerably more divided political environments than they did in 2008 and in both blocs there are sizeable camps that strongly oppose any further central bank intervention. The level of government debt is substantially higher in many countries now than in 2008, restraining any appetite for fiscal stimulus. Appetite for structural reforms in emerging market countries that need it, such as Brazil and India, has declined rather than increased over the last three years.

Dark clouds are gathering in the distance while investors’ attention is focused on the Greek tragedy playing out on stage in front of them. The global economy may be entering a new and more dangerous period.
_________

Eoghan Flanagan is head of emerging markets at Liontrust.
http://www.fundweb.co.uk/blogs/opinion/a-more-dangerous-trend/1053253.article

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

2A more dangerous trend Empty Re: A more dangerous trend Wed Jun 20, 2012 8:24 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Dark clouds are gathering in the distance while investors’ attention is focused on the Greek tragedy playing out on stage in front of them. The global economy may be entering a new and more dangerous period.

Thanks for sharing a vital info.

Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum