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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » EXPERT CHRONICLE™ » Good shares ? Time to analyze and post findings. Open invitation to all.

Good shares ? Time to analyze and post findings. Open invitation to all.

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Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Good shares ? Time to analyze and post findings. Open invitation to all.  - Page 3 Top-1010

This is a follow up on my  below post
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present

Most seniors, fundamental analysts, tech analysts , pattern readers who where once active in the forum is staying away due to the great bear trend and micro/macro factors. We rarely see good discussions now a days. Most items are news related.

We know many would have  got burnt to their skin specially those who where playing with speculative shares like GREG,REEF, HVA,EAST,PAP, RGEM   etc etc. Some blue chips which were overvalued were not spared. A bitter experience coupled with more negative news is even keeping the strongest of the lot who survived so far  to seek safer havens. Whoever has money left would have chosen to move what their remaining investments  to FDs,treasury bills , high yielding savings with lesser risk and sure gain.

But let me draw your attention to another side. The once over blown and over heated ASI, MPI  corrected from 7800 to 4700 and 4200 respectively. This is a massive drop. In the meantime many shares have corrected and over corrected their value. We see shares with PEs of lesser than 5 ,
below NAV, below IPO. Even the shares which were done at bargain private placement and offered at over priced IPO prices  are nearing those placement targets.  Speculative have blown their hot air out.

When the daily volumes started to dry up and the sellers are now selling their  bargain priced shares with lesser tendency/volume it is a decent sign that the bear is slowly tiring.  We recently hit the lowest turnover in 3 years! When the strongest of those survived the bear also starts leaving, it is another sign that the so called "dumb money" ( no offence) is leaving and the smart money starts coming in.  I am not saying the bear trend has ended. NO.There can be sudden drops due to weak mentality .  But I see no reason why ASI should drop below 4500 -4700. But IT CAN as none of us have a magic ball in our hands to predict. But all I can say is one's losses is this bear is  going to be another's longer term gain.  Some possibly by 50-200% with time. Easily it will beat the FD rates hand down when it happens. FD,Treasury rates cannot go up for ever. It has to start stabilizing and coming down at some point.

This forum is small representation of the CSE. The mentalities , the participation , the promotion type posts disappearing, the unnecessary arguments are all part of the frustration. The bear was/is still laughing. Bull is on vacation. The consolidation is what we should see now.  

If we try to identify the market bottom we might miss the bus. At some point there will be a sudden few days of hikes and those people who expected it again to drop might not be so lucky.
See below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19797-it-is-really-much-better-than-few-weeks-back-level

All this time foriegner where slowly collecting. They only collected shares with higher caps like JKH,DIST,COMB,DFCC,CFIN etc.  
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19562-foreign-purchase-and-sales-june-2012

But note there are so many other shares which trade with much stronger fundamentals and also has hidden forces that can drive them sky high during a bull. What are those shares? What are the hidden asset shares?

For the Long term investors:

I invite the seniors, analysts and anybody with enthusiam to come join and post their share analysis.  But please post with reasons. This is the time to analyse. Time to analyze is NOT when the bull starts and when the forum is flooded with promotional posts with 1 line target prices. Those posts will be useless to figure out what to buy as the speculative cycle will begin with them and the risk factor will be higher.

Those who stay away from market will miss trading opportunities at least. During june itself some share gained 30-40% from the bottom.

Also below will be good reads for the above discussion

1)http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1657744509
2)http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19552-if-the-fundamentals-are-sound-the-stock-price-is-bound-to-recover
3) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19808-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom
  http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19520-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom

I/we  welcome your posts and analysis. Loosen  you shackles , open your eyes, try to be ahead of the pack!

All the best.

Share this post on: redditgoogle

@Bond wrote:
You really want to know more about Goodhope Asia Question 
yes yes ! tell tell ! Smile

@Bond wrote:
@The Alchemist wrote:
@Backstage wrote:Why CINV at this point ? long term ?

@ Backstage

1. CINV has a current NAV of Rs 135 - 140. Its 3 biggest holdings are Buki, JKH & Comm Bank (75 % of NAV). Balance 25 % of portfolio value comprises of significant holdings in Sampath, PLC, Nestle, Asiri, Durdans, Tokyo Cement etc.

2. As you may be aware, in JKH & COMM Bank, there is significant foreign interest. Buki is now Rs 700/= down from its Feb 2011 high of Rs 1600/=. This is due to relatively lower prices for Palm oil starting from October 2012. average price for palm oil during period sep 2009 - sep 2012 was average RM 3000 / = tonne. currently at around Rm 2400-2500/= Tonne.

3. CINV through RIT owns approx 10 % of Buki which in turns owns approx 64 % of Good Hope Asia Holdings in Singapore (directly and through Carsons). A big event will take place in Singapore mid 2013 which will place value of GoodHope Asia Holdings at usd 1.2 Billion. Thats all i can say on that ! Go Figure ! Hint - Check Debt levels on Balance Sheet and then look at the profile of the newly appointed Board of Directors of GAHL (in mid 2012) on the website www.goodhopeholdings.com

4. This means that Buki will be worth approx USD 770 Million on its GoodHope Asia Holdings Stake. divide this by 102 million shares and you come up with usd 7.55 / share or Rs 980 / Share. this does not inclue 46 % of Carsons non Palm oil business value such as Breweries, Real Estate and Investment Holdings.      

5. Palm Oil prices may not remain low forever. current low prices due to inventory build up in malaysia which is due to higher seasonal supply and lower seasonal demand from EU and China due to these countries economic situations. already, analyst are signalling a bullish stance due to wintering season for palm oil, and weather concerns for the soyabean crop in South America. furthermore, as Palm oil prices drop, it becomes more attractive and viable for Biodeisel as crude prices are relatively high.    

6. Meanwhile back at the ranch, GoodHope Asia is set to increase its matured plantations by 40 % in 2013 and 2014. This will offset fixed costs and enable to them benefit from better economies of scale.  

7. Due to its Palm Oil Exposure with prospects of improving fundamentals, "event" in mid 2013, exposure to sought after other Blue Chips in the market, trading at 63 % of its NAV, and most importantly being a pet stock of the EPF/ETF, It is one of the better Investment Holding companies in the CSE.
You really want to know more about Goodhope Asia Question 
Aney please please tell will you, aney please please please......

Ane ow, with mee paeni .

Will pretty please with sugar on top work?


@Backstage wrote:
@Bond wrote:
@The Alchemist wrote:
@Backstage wrote:Why CINV at this point ? long term ?

@ Backstage

1. CINV has a current NAV of Rs 135 - 140. Its 3 biggest holdings are Buki, JKH & Comm Bank (75 % of NAV). Balance 25 % of portfolio value comprises of significant holdings in Sampath, PLC, Nestle, Asiri, Durdans, Tokyo Cement etc.

2. As you may be aware, in JKH & COMM Bank, there is significant foreign interest. Buki is now Rs 700/= down from its Feb 2011 high of Rs 1600/=. This is due to relatively lower prices for Palm oil starting from October 2012. average price for palm oil during period sep 2009 - sep 2012 was average RM 3000 / = tonne. currently at around Rm 2400-2500/= Tonne.

3. CINV through RIT owns approx 10 % of Buki which in turns owns approx 64 % of Good Hope Asia Holdings in Singapore (directly and through Carsons). A big event will take place in Singapore mid 2013 which will place value of GoodHope Asia Holdings at usd 1.2 Billion. Thats all i can say on that ! Go Figure ! Hint - Check Debt levels on Balance Sheet and then look at the profile of the newly appointed Board of Directors of GAHL (in mid 2012) on the website www.goodhopeholdings.com

4. This means that Buki will be worth approx USD 770 Million on its GoodHope Asia Holdings Stake. divide this by 102 million shares and you come up with usd 7.55 / share or Rs 980 / Share. this does not inclue 46 % of Carsons non Palm oil business value such as Breweries, Real Estate and Investment Holdings.      

5. Palm Oil prices may not remain low forever. current low prices due to inventory build up in malaysia which is due to higher seasonal supply and lower seasonal demand from EU and China due to these countries economic situations. already, analyst are signalling a bullish stance due to wintering season for palm oil, and weather concerns for the soyabean crop in South America. furthermore, as Palm oil prices drop, it becomes more attractive and viable for Biodeisel as crude prices are relatively high.    

6. Meanwhile back at the ranch, GoodHope Asia is set to increase its matured plantations by 40 % in 2013 and 2014. This will offset fixed costs and enable to them benefit from better economies of scale.  

7. Due to its Palm Oil Exposure with prospects of improving fundamentals, "event" in mid 2013, exposure to sought after other Blue Chips in the market, trading at 63 % of its NAV, and most importantly being a pet stock of the EPF/ETF, It is one of the better Investment Holding companies in the CSE.
You really want to know more about Goodhope Asia Question 
Aney please please tell will you, aney please please please......

This is the real Slstock thread.

Now see the difference.

@greedy007 wrote:This is the real Slstock thread.

Now see the difference.

I am sorry Greedy, I am not particularly interested in analysing the comments of just one member. We are also not interested in finding out who they are and what their writing style. This is a free forum and we do not encourage other members to share their personal details here. I have noticed some many members using multiple login. We request members to refrain from doing so. Thank you.



Last edited by Quibit on Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:10 am; edited 1 time in total

Keshav dislikes this post

Like admin team members do have multiple ID?


So now you agree 12500+ is not a realistic one. May be 3000 members created 12500 ID? 

OMG

@greedy007 wrote:Like admin team members do have multiple ID?


So now you agree 12500+ is not a realistic one. May be 3000 members created 12500 ID? 

OMG

According to Facebook, Duplicate accounts could be as high as 30%

So we as a member of the prestigious forum can't boast in future that we do have 12500+ members?

Embarassed

@greedy007 wrote:So we as a member of the prestigious forum can't boast in future that we do have 12500+ members?

Embarassed

Our return emails are less than 1%. Therefore we can say we are very close to the actual membership count.

@Quibit wrote:
Our return emails are less than 1%. Therefore we can say we are very close to the actual membership count.

I trust your word.

But everyone knows that you are fooling left right and centre plus even yourself.

Now God may be tired to help you in future.

@hunter wrote:
I do not intend to be a member here anymore.
Could you please tell me the process to delete the account?
(For the benefit of me and another ~500)


We are one of the premier forum in Sri Lanka, and now planning to use your ID in future, how can we delete your membership. Think loudly.

Those who are not interested in being a member could email us on info@srilankaequity.com to deactivate your account.

@Quibit wrote:Those who are not interested in being a member could email us on info@srilankaequity.com to deactivate your account.
thing is you can create us again and public posts on behalf of us.ha haa haa.kill me.

@nimantha80 wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Those who are not interested in being a member could email us on info@srilankaequity.com to deactivate your account.
thing is you can create us again and public posts on behalf of us.ha haa haa.kill me.

Commit Suicide!! Better Word Smile

@Slstock wrote:This is a follow up on my  below post
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present


Most seniors, fundamental analysts, tech analysts , pattern readers who where once active in the forum is staying away due to the great bear trend and micro/macro factors. We rarely see good discussions now a days. Most items are news related.


We know many would have  got burnt to their skin specially those who where playing with speculative shares like GREG,REEF, HVA,EAST,PAP, RGEM   etc etc. Some blue chips which were overvalued were not spared. A bitter experience coupled with more negative news is even keeping the strongest of the lot who survived so far  to seek safer havens. Whoever has money left would have chosen to move what their remaining investments  to FDs,treasury bills , high yielding savings with lesser risk and sure gain.

But let me draw your attention to another side. The once over blown and over heated ASI, MPI  corrected from 7800 to 4700 and 4200 respectively. This is a massive drop. In the meantime many shares have corrected and over corrected their value. We see shares with PEs of lesser than 5 ,
below NAV, below IPO. Even the shares which were done at bargain private placement and offered at over priced IPO prices  are nearing those placement targets.  Speculative have blown their hot air out.

When the daily volumes started to dry up and the sellers are now selling their  bargain priced shares with lesser tendency/volume it is a decent sign that the bear is slowly tiring.  We recently hit the lowest turnover in 3 years! When the strongest of those survived the bear also starts leaving, it is another sign that the so called "dumb money" ( no offence) is leaving and the smart money starts coming in.  I am not saying the bear trend has ended. NO.There can be sudden drops due to weak mentality .  But I see no reason why ASI should drop below 4500 -4700. But IT CAN as none of us have a magic ball in our hands to predict. But all I can say is one's losses is this bear is  going to be another's longer term gain.  Some possibly by 50-200% with time. Easily it will beat the FD rates hand down when it happens. FD,Treasury rates cannot go up for ever. It has to start stabilizing and coming down at some point.

This forum is small representation of the CSE. The mentalities , the participation , the promotion type posts disappearing, the unnecessary arguments are all part of the frustration. The bear was/is still laughing. Bull is on vacation. The consolidation is what we should see now.  

If we try to identify the market bottom we might miss the bus. At some point there will be a sudden few days of hikes and those people who expected it again to drop might not be so lucky.
See below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19797-it-is-really-much-better-than-few-weeks-back-level

All this time foriegner where slowly collecting. They only collected shares with higher caps like JKH,DIST,COMB,DFCC,CFIN etc.  
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19562-foreign-purchase-and-sales-june-2012

But note there are so many other shares which trade with much stronger fundamentals and also has hidden forces that can drive them sky high during a bull. What are those shares? What are the hidden asset shares?

For the Long term investors:

I invite the seniors, analysts and anybody with enthusiam to come join and post their share analysis.  But please post with reasons. This is the time to analyse. Time to analyze is NOT when the bull starts and when the forum is flooded with promotional posts with 1 line target prices. Those posts will be useless to figure out what to buy as the speculative cycle will begin with them and the risk factor will be higher.

Those who stay away from market will miss trading opportunities at least. During june itself some share gained 30-40% from the bottom.


Also below will be good reads for the above discussion

1)http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1657744509
2)http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19552-if-the-fundamentals-are-sound-the-stock-price-is-bound-to-recover
3) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19808-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom
  http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19520-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom


I/we  welcome your posts and analysis. Loosen  you shackles , open your eyes, try to be ahead of the pack!

All the best.

We are going out of topic in this thread. Better we restrict our discussion to the subject and discuss other matters under a separate thread.

Invitation extended.

@soileconomy wrote:This company owns the following company shares through its subsidiary
(1) JKH
(2)COMB
(3)HNB
(4)DFCC
(5)MADU
(6)BALA
(7)Unlisted insurance company
(8)Unlisted telecommunication company
(9) more than 40% of SPEN.
(10) Recently got approval from CBSL as a Finance CVompany.

Controls over 80% of beverage market.........

?........

@target1 wrote:
[mention][/mention] wrote:This company owns the following company shares through its subsidiary
(1) JKH
(2)COMB
(3)HNB
(4)DFCC
(5)MADU
(6)BALA
(7)Unlisted insurance company
(8)Unlisted telecommunication company
(9) more than 40% of SPEN.
(10) Recently got approval from CBSL as a Finance CVompany.

Controls over 80% of beverage market.........

?........

Your guess is good as mine Smile

But none is better than RCL.

d

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