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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL

NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL

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1NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:32 pm

warshan

warshan
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
What will happens to chikens in new year season?

2NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:41 pm

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@warshan wrote:What will happens to chikens in new year season?

Every year we have new year season, right? So could there be any miracal other than normal increase in demand due to higher consumption during the period.

3NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Fri Mar 25, 2011 12:55 pm

wis


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I don't know whether you have noticed this but the chicken in the lunch packets these days can be measured in one tablespoon. You get more chilli paste than chicken. Smile
But I'm sure these chicken come from local slaughterhouses not the big brand slaughterhouses listed in the CSE.

4NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Fri Mar 25, 2011 4:53 pm

High.Risk.High.Return

High.Risk.High.Return
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Below the BFL’s earnings pattern:
31.03.2009 - 10.2 Mn (EPS 0.64)
30.06.2009 - 12.5 Mn (EPS 0.78)
30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn (EPS 1.56)
31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn (EPS 1.36)
31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn (EPS 4.43)
30.06.2010 - 104.1 Mn ( EPS 6.51)
30.09.2010 - 114.4 Mn (EPS 7.15)
31.12.2010- 163.9 m (EPS 10.24)

When we look at above performance it is clear that BFL will be able to report EPS 40 in FY 2011.
With their new venture in Puttalam this will be an easy target. The other thing is their ready made poultry products( Pre-cooked items) are gradually settling down in the market. The tourist arrival is higher than we expected. The government reduced the tax on import of maize to reduce the cost of poultry feed. ( Even with tax BFL is well off as they produce maize locally)
They have got a ten year tax holiday for their new state of the art poultry farm in Puttalam.
They invested Rs 120 million initially.Additional investment in the second and third year being Rs 240 million. They expect to crease their commercial broiler production by 20 % in the first year, 20 % in the second year and 15 % in the third year. The first batch of chickens from this farm will be ready by April/May 2011.
With this product they will surely grab a bigger market share and maintaining above 10 quarterly EPS through out 2011 is an easy target. So we can expect

With EPS 40 BFL share is worth, If sector PE = 16
Expected BFL Share Price = 40 x 16 = Rs.640/-
50% gain is most possible.

But, if you go with TAFL,
Last quarter they earned more than 5 of EPS. More possible 31.03.2011 end quarter TAFL to report more than 7.0 of EPS. This means TAFL also we can think, they go for a more than 20 of EPS for 2011. With PER of 16 , we can see TAFL also worth = EPS 20 X PER 16 = Rs.320/- level. This benefit will go to GRAN.
So,Poultry group 31.03.2011 quarter results will release after 20 th april. Before that they will have a mega rally.
My next poultry barriers are below.
BFL – Rs.625/-
TAFL – Rs.270/-
GRAN – Rs.275/-

5NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Fri Mar 25, 2011 5:44 pm

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
is this by you or copied from somewhere?

6NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:10 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@High.Risk.High.Return wrote:Below the BFL’s earnings pattern:
31.03.2009 - 10.2 Mn (EPS 0.64)
30.06.2009 - 12.5 Mn (EPS 0.78)
30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn (EPS 1.56)
31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn (EPS 1.36)
31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn (EPS 4.43)
30.06.2010 - 104.1 Mn ( EPS 6.51)
30.09.2010 - 114.4 Mn (EPS 7.15)
31.12.2010- 163.9 m (EPS 10.24)

When we look at above performance it is clear that BFL will be able to report EPS 40 in FY 2011.
With their new venture in Puttalam this will be an easy target. The other thing is their ready made poultry products( Pre-cooked items) are gradually settling down in the market. The tourist arrival is higher than we expected. The government reduced the tax on import of maize to reduce the cost of poultry feed. ( Even with tax BFL is well off as they produce maize locally)
They have got a ten year tax holiday for their new state of the art poultry farm in Puttalam.
They invested Rs 120 million initially.Additional investment in the second and third year being Rs 240 million. They expect to crease their commercial broiler production by 20 % in the first year, 20 % in the second year and 15 % in the third year. The first batch of chickens from this farm will be ready by April/May 2011.
With this product they will surely grab a bigger market share and maintaining above 10 quarterly EPS through out 2011 is an easy target. So we can expect

With EPS 40 BFL share is worth, If sector PE = 16
Expected BFL Share Price = 40 x 16 = Rs.640/-
50% gain is most possible.

But, if you go with TAFL,
Last quarter they earned more than 5 of EPS. More possible 31.03.2011 end quarter TAFL to report more than 7.0 of EPS. This means TAFL also we can think, they go for a more than 20 of EPS for 2011. With PER of 16 , we can see TAFL also worth = EPS 20 X PER 16 = Rs.320/- level. This benefit will go to GRAN.
So,Poultry group 31.03.2011 quarter results will release after 20 th april. Before that they will have a mega rally.
My next poultry barriers are below.
BFL – Rs.625/-
TAFL – Rs.270/-
GRAN – Rs.275/-
Nice copy & paste. And few editing has been done. lol!

7NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:52 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
I am also expecting a good rally in poultry sector before next reports.

8NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:04 am

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote: I am also expecting a good rally in poultry sector before next reports.

Are you serious? If so what makes you to have such an expectation?

9NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:09 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@StocksWatch wrote:
@econ wrote: I am also expecting a good rally in poultry sector before next reports.

Are you serious? If so what makes you to have such an expectation?
yes I am serious.
because I hope all poultry sector company reports for 2011 1st quarter may be better compare to 1st quarter of 2010.
so I am expecting considerable share price increase to reflect that growth.

10NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:14 am

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:
@StocksWatch wrote:
@econ wrote: I am also expecting a good rally in poultry sector before next reports.

Are you serious? If so what makes you to have such an expectation?
yes I am serious.
because I hope all poultry sector company reports for 2011 1st quarter may be better compare to 1st quarter of 2010.
so I am expecting considerable share price increase to reflect that growth.

I cannot disagree. They are looking attractive specially after the recent downfall in the market. The prices of BFL, GRAN, TAFL came down by big margins. So even if they are to be back in thier previous price levels, they need to have a rally! So you may be correct.

11NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:41 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Hi,
I'm afraid I've also got to agree too Wink Look at the calculations I've done for BFL after removing other income portion from each qrt and annualising the EPS.. pretty interesting..

NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Bfl10

12NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:47 am

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Hi,
I'm afraid I've also got to agree too Wink Look at the calculations I've done for BFL after removing other income portion from each qrt and annualising the EPS.. pretty interesting..

NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Bfl10

Good work smallville. Have samething for TAFL and GRAN too?

13NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:29 pm

silentsahan

silentsahan
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
npp wrote:is this by you or copied from somewhere?


http://investors.lk/11875/How+much+a+BFL+share+is+worth+now

Shocked

14NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:38 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Ok.. here u go.. BFL, GRAN & TAFL...

NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Bfl11

TAFL has accumulated losses of 476Mn but their illiquid nature has increased the value of it (public floating is less).. GRAN has so much of shares hence their EPS gets diluted, so the valuation looks unattractive.
On the other hand, BFL is the leader in poultry and no accumulated losses made.

However, this doesn't mean GRAN & TAFL are not attractive, only BFL results stands prominent from the others..
The valuation based on current earnings not future earnings..
Once their quarterly results are out we can see the earnings growth on GRAN, TAFL as well.. Before the results out, we can expect a run as well.. Wink



Last edited by smallville on Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:34 pm; edited 1 time in total

15NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:16 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
A wise man would look at both the topline and the bottomline.

16NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:42 pm

StocksWatch


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Excellent smallville. Thanks for sharing this comparison.

17NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 3:25 pm

Ben Graham

Ben Graham
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
great work smallville.

i think 4th Q results (2011-03-31) should be added to this share valuation right?
say for BFL 4Q profit = 180Mn
then total profits for the year = 103 + 102 + +163 + 180 = 547Mn

EPS = 547Mn / 16Mn = 34.19

So with sector PE of 24.2, share price = 24.2 * 34.19 = Rs. 827

With fair sector PE of (30%) = 16.94 * 34.19 = Rs. 579

Correct me if im wrong.

Kind Regards.

18NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:09 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Ben Graham wrote:great work smallville.

i think 4th Q results (2011-03-31) should be added to this share valuation right?
say for BFL 4Q profit = 180Mn
then total profits for the year = 103 + 102 + +163 + 180 = 547Mn

EPS = 547Mn / 16Mn = 34.19

So with sector PE of 24.2, share price = 24.2 * 34.19 = Rs. 827

With fair sector PE of (30%) = 16.94 * 34.19 = Rs. 579

Correct me if im wrong.

Kind Regards.


I'm afraid ur wrong Wink This valuation is only on current earnings basis.. means only last 3 qtrs results are annualized for arriving at a EPS value and then the figures have been calculated accordingly..
Its too obvious to be optimistic on a figure like 579/- so soon.. But somewhat around 500 is on the cards Wink

then again due to this seasonal effect, their earnings would've been so marvelous and ultimately it could reach your target as well.. But its safe to assume 500 as a fair figure as of now..

19NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Tue Mar 29, 2011 3:23 am

Ben Graham

Ben Graham
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thanks for ur reply smallville.

i want to clarify some points.
according to the data given by u, profits of BFL for the Q ending on 31/03/2010 = 490 - 162 - 102 - 103 = 123Mn
isn't it 71Mn?
but the whole profits for the year ending on 31/03/2010 = 134Mn

when calculating the valuation, dnt we have to select the current ending Q (31/03/2011) results. or should we take last 4 Qs as u have taken?

Pls clarify me on this stock valuation which will help to all people on this forum.

Kind Regards.

20NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Empty Re: NEW YEAR SEASON - BFL,GRAN & TAFL Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:34 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
This 31/03/2010 result was taken out on my calculation due to it being the year end profit
of 2009.. their financial year ends on 31/03/2010.

So their earnings for 2010 starts from 30-06-10 results and ends on 31/03/2011 which is what we're expecting to be high..

This figure of 490 is an avg figure I've calculated as;
(162+102+103)/3 * 4
There's no certain portion allocated as Q1/2011 profits, but as u said it seems like 123Mn which is lesser than the
last qtr which is again highly unlikely..

IF u wanna have a good calculation a full finanical year has to be taken..
But if the results are not yet published, theres no harm in predicting it if you give weightages on the industry behavious, favourable factors, seasonal effects, demand for the products, etc...
Then in my openion, u can even give a discount to ur final figure to level it for unforseen factors..

Normally for a compnay which financila year is on Jan-Dec, u can take full yr figures.. but if its March - next yr April, at the time of analyzing latest period results are not available.. then what u could do is avg the profits for 4 qtrs like i did or avg the EPS for 4 qtrs..

Then for a better valuation, u can further calculate it on a discounted value on sector PE.. so that u've done so manyh things
and if still ur value is less than the market price of it, ur 90% sure ur share is undervalued..

Hope things are clear now..

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