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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ »  Sri Lanka drought may cut growth to 6.7%- Jayasundera

Sri Lanka drought may cut growth to 6.7%- Jayasundera

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Malika1990

Malika1990
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sri Lanka’s economic growth this year may range between 6.7 percent and 7.2 percent depending on the impact of a drought that has lasted since the beginning of t he year, Treasury Secretary P.B. Jayasundera said.

The Central Bank has forecast 7.2 percent economic growth this year, after revising it down in March from the original 8 percent. Growth last year was a record 8.3 percent.

“The economy is slowing down not because of global recession or anything. It is because of the drought,” Jayasundera told a Reuters forum in Colombo.

He said he was optimistic about reaching this year’s budget deficit target of 6.2 percent of gross domestic product against last year’s figure of 6.9 percent.

He said year-on-year inflation, which eased to 9.5 percent in August from the previous month’s 43-month high of 9.8 percent, should show further declines from the first quarter of 2013.

The economy, he said, will see the full benefit of this year’s tough measures - including two interest rate rises to two-year highs and the introduction of a flexible exchange rate - by the first quarter of 2013 and interest rates would dip.

“By the first quarter, when we see the economy cooling for a full year, I see prospects, not necessarily for an easing of monetary policy, but for seeing a low interest rate in the country,” he said.

The Sri Lankan rupee has depreciated more than 13 percent so far this year as the government switched to a flexible exchange rate policy in February. Both the central bank and treasury have said macroeconomic fundamentals support a rupee level of 125 per dollar.

“Now it has stabilised around 130-131 level without central bank intervention. It may remain at that level,” Jayasundera said.

The central bank spent nearly one-third of the country’s foreign exchange reserves trying to prop up the rupee in the last four months of 2011 before moving to a flexible exchange rate in February.

The Central Bank has said it will consider concerns including those of importers and exporters when deciding where the exchange rate target should be, instead of allowing a marketled exchange rate. “I am not a great fan of that advice,” Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal said at the same event when talking about letting the market decide the exchange rate.

“I can tell you in Sri Lanka, we will be conscious of the market. But also we will be taking a long-term view on the market and we will also be supportive of the various stake-holders who we want to remain in our economy in the long term as well.”

Despite repeated IMF call for a flexible exchange rate, the central bank resisted it until February after the global lender delayed a tranche of a $2.6 billion loan. However, after policy changes the IMF resumed lending and completed it in July.
http://www.dailymirror.lk/business/economy/21795-sri-lanka-drought-may-cut-growth-to-67-jayasundera-.html

aj


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I don't get it. Why is drought the only cause?
Is it because of hydro power? But diesel generators ran the country's power for years. Although everything started saying Sri Lanka will give power to India, all the reservoirs are just sitting there from the beginning.
I've seen articles saying Sri Lanka is even exporting rice this much and this much.
So why would that effect everything like constructions, industries, garments, hotels, labor force, service industries? For example tourism has no problem when it's not raining, constructions the same, industries, transportation, everything would be running at the full productivity when it's not flooding. There are countries which get so little rain in the world which is the normal for them.
How come drought is the only issue?



Last edited by aj on Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:38 am; edited 1 time in total

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi Malika,

I saw an article on NEST...with CAA trying to sue them...wonder hoe this would affect ....a good buying opprtunity perhaps if panic sellers react to this news item.
Very Happy

Bcos i put a BUY LIMIT order around 1145 for 75 shares...can you see that order Very Happy

Thats mine.... Basketball

Go sellers make my day.. Very Happy

TAH

Malika1990

Malika1990
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:Hi Malika,

I saw an article on NEST...with CAA trying to sue them...wonder hoe this would affect ....a good buying opprtunity perhaps if panic sellers react to this news item.
Very Happy

Bcos i put a BUY LIMIT order around 1145 for 75 shares...can you see that order Very Happy

Thats mine.... Basketball

Go sellers make my day.. Very Happy

TAH
Yep traderathome
they will make your day cheers cheers

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