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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CHRONICLE™ ANALYTICS » Market turnaround -Technical Signals witnessed!!

Market turnaround -Technical Signals witnessed!!

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gann


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Aamiable wrote:

Milanka index has gome up today.

I would like to see MILANKA trading above 6900 to be optimistic bounce bounce

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:
@Aamiable wrote:

Milanka index has gome up today.

I would like to see MILANKA trading above 6900 to be optimistic bounce bounce

There some early indications. Banks have picked up today , some diversified blue chips and so on.

supun.perera


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@gann wrote:
I would like to see MILANKA trading above 6900 to be optimistic :bounce: :bounce:

yes.... 6900 is the 38.2% Fib level...

btw, Milanka is up only by 0.39 ... well.. at least it didn't go down... :scratch:



Last edited by supun.perera on Mon Mar 28, 2011 3:06 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : correction)

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Supun, et al, the point I am trying to raise is that both Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis in this market is equally useful (or useless take your pick).

I don't think you were around in early February, when some of us called a market top. The ASI continued to climb after that point and it looked like the call was wrong. But in actual fact the market continued to decline while the ASI kept going on up.

First the ASI went up because of the GREG group, then it was oil palm, then of course the notorious WAPO. if you look at the charts of individual stocks, you will find that almost all of them had their peak during the first 10 days of February. This phenomena was identified and reported here.

The the ASI started to dip, it actually started happening around the time that many of the shares found support levels. So once again the majority of the shares in the market kept going up while the index declined. The advance/decline ratio will show you that.

Even today, the intra day chart had many ups and downs. Compare that with the intraday charts of SLTL, CFIN, COMB and BUKI. WAPO no longer has the impact it used to have. But there are plenty of better and more subtle alternatives

gann


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@supun.perera wrote:

Would like to know which keypoints interested you...

Once the 38.2% level is broken through, the next resistance could be 23.6% level (7498-7549 region).



The keypoint is relavance given to 23.6 based on previous pivot point.

chamith

chamith
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
[CLICK ON THE GRAPH TO SEE THE REST]

According to my MACD analysis on ASI, its about to cross the line. SO hopefully we can expect the line to be crossed in couple of days. According to stochastic Oscillator clearly ASI have come up from over sold region. But its trend has been disturbed in last couple of days. So to be optimistic we can call it due to WAPO and some credit clearing issued caused that.

As a conclusion i feel that ASI is on the fence, with more advantage for upside movement. Next couple of days will bring us the initiation indicators of the movement. Hopefully should be green due to ; End of March credit clearing, UBC commencement, Most of the investors feel optimistic these days. Very Happy

supun.perera

supun.perera
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@tubal wrote:Supun, et al, the point I am trying to raise is that both Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis in this market is equally useful (or useless take your pick).
LOL yes....I agree that both have their uses.

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Push up SLTL, JKH, DIAL, CFIN and COMB simultaneously and viola the index which was down 0.75% five minutes ago is now down only 0.1% push up BUKI, CARS and woah there the market is green yipeeeee!

Never mind that we have 100 counters that have declined while only 50 have gone up

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sorry guys small error. The second stage of the push didn't involve BUKI and CARS after all. It was SLTL being pushed up a little further and then HNB.

dimithri


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@chamith wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
[CLICK ON THE GRAPH TO SEE THE REST]

According to my MACD analysis on ASI, its about to cross the line. SO hopefully we can expect the line to be crossed in couple of days. According to stochastic Oscillator clearly ASI have come up from over sold region. But its trend has been disturbed in last couple of days. So to be optimistic we can call it due to WAPO and some credit clearing issued caused that.

As a conclusion i feel that ASI is on the fence, with more advantage for upside movement. Next couple of days will bring us the initiation indicators of the movement. Hopefully should be green due to ; End of March credit clearing, UBC commencement, Most of the investors feel optimistic these days. Very Happy


Hi Chamith, What is MACD?How to read it from the graph?

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
As I have mentioned in the previous posts in this thread, ASI was showing an accumulation setup after 18th of march. (ie: more sideways movement). so stay tuned for the next couple of days.

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:As I have mentioned in the previous posts in this thread, ASI was showing an accumulation setup after 18th of march. (ie: more sideways movement). so stay tuned for the next couple of days.


not very usefull when the ASI follows a script written by someone instead of reacting to investor sentiment.

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:
@gann wrote:As I have mentioned in the previous posts in this thread, ASI was showing an accumulation setup after 18th of march. (ie: more sideways movement). so stay tuned for the next couple of days.


not very usefull when the ASI follows a script written by someone instead of reacting to investor sentiment.

True..But so far ASI has been respecting S/R levels. There maybe multiple forces operating having opposite actions and the effect is nullified Smile

34Market turnaround -Technical Signals witnessed!! - Page 2 Empty ASI- 30min chart Thu Mar 31, 2011 8:22 am

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
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if asi breaks below 7200, i expect it to drop to next support of 7150. for a trend change confirmation asi needs to break above the top resistance line(Magenta).



Last edited by gann on Thu Mar 31, 2011 8:51 am; edited 2 times in total

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]


if asi breaks below 7200, i expect it to drop to next support of 7150. for a trend change confirmation asi needs to break above the top resistance line(Magenta).

Gann, this is just the point. In couple of other posts you mentioned that you can spot a share that's manipulated at a glance. I am surprised that you cannot do the same with the ASI.

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tubal
we still have to look at the trend. I am only studying the current trend. what causes that trend maybe manipulation. no one knows. but the resultant of the prevailing trend is
what i am interested. aslso i have updated the chart.

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:@tubal
we still have to look at the trend. I am only studying the current trend. what causes that trend maybe manipulation. no one knows. but the resultant of the prevailing trend is
what i am interested. aslso i have updated the chart.

In that case let me remind you that for a trend line to be accurate it has to go through three points and not two.

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
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Updated with proper channels. so what path asi going to take red or green?

top magenta line hit 4 times. and the red is the parallel to it. Green line hits 4 times and the parallel bottom line is in magenta. also asi is between a symmetrical triangle
shown by two diverging magenta lines.



Last edited by gann on Thu Mar 31, 2011 8:50 am; edited 3 times in total

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@gann wrote:
True..But so far ASI has been respecting S/R levels. There maybe multiple forces operating having opposite actions and the effect is nullified Smile

Yes Gann! watching the market and technicals very very carefully. It should turn one of these days. Fundamentals of the country haven't change much during last 6 months but the market yet to head north!! making fundamentalist confused!

I was a strong believer of Fundamental Analysis against all odds. But a recent study of the technical analysis have given me a different perspective to the market and proved to be accurate in many instances. So I believe, Technical Analysis as a another power tool that helps you to evaluate market behavior and to make right decisions.

Gann, Thank you very much for your support!!

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:
@gann wrote:
True..But so far ASI has been respecting S/R levels. There maybe multiple forces operating having opposite actions and the effect is nullified Smile

Yes Gann! watching the market and technicals very very carefully. It should turn one of these days. Fundamentals of the country haven't change much during last 6 months but the market yet to head north!! making fundamentalist confused!

I was a strong believer of Fundamental Analysis against all odds. But a recent study of the technical analysis have given me a different perspective to the market and proved to be accurate in many instances. So I believe, Technical Analysis as a another power tool that helps you to evaluate market behavior and to make right decisions.

Gann, Thank you very much for your support!!

Thank you for your support and encouragement as well. You are a one talented admin Smile

ASI seems to be pulled by two opposing forces. ( GREEN channel and the RED channel in the chart.) and the resultant is a symmetrical triangle.

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
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trend hits are circled. ASI should move above 7225 to oscillate in the bullish trend line.

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