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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Commercial Credit (COCR) A Hidden Gem?

Commercial Credit (COCR) A Hidden Gem?

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1Commercial Credit (COCR) A Hidden Gem? Empty Commercial Credit (COCR) A Hidden Gem? Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:10 pm

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Today this company share seems to be collected heavily. I need your advice considering below facts.

Net Assets Value = 5.73
Earning Per Share = 5.05 for Six months upto March 2012
Annualized EPS Based on last QTR = 10.10
Dividend announcement = 1.00 Rs per Share XD 24/10/2012

With the increase of last quarter profits this share seems to be of a great potential. I think there is a possibility of moving towards 50 levels as per the latest annualized EPS. Please post your ideas.

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Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
EPs 5.05 is Annualized.

Their Year End eps ( 31st MArch 2012) is 3.74.

Yes , this is an attractive share but there are also other attractive shares in banking sector with better even better PBV.

AGain this is not to say COCR is a bad share just clarifying some stats.

hasintha

hasintha
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@slstock wrote:EPs 5.05 is Annualized.

Their Year End eps ( 31st MArch 2012) is 3.74.

Yes , this is an attractive share but there are also other attractive shares in banking sector with better even better PBV.


Such As? Please share your wisdom Smile

http://hasi-journal.blogspot.com

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Please look in the forum, I already mentioned some analysis of some shares. ALso look at research section as broker reports as PBV and PE estimated of shares.


I do not want to name shares without comments as some crude people will try to use it for bad attacks later. People thanks less but blame more.

By the way my style of investing is different. Some of them require holding till the target price realised in medium to long term. Depending on interest short term shares as COCR can also move fasters if major buying start happening.

SO short term and medium/long tartget are different.






@hasintha wrote:
@slstock wrote:EPs 5.05 is Annualized.

Their Year End eps ( 31st MArch 2012) is 3.74.

Yes , this is an attractive share but there are also other attractive shares in banking sector with better even better PBV.


Such As? Please share your wisdom Smile

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:EPs 5.05 is Annualized.

Their Year End eps ( 31st MArch 2012) is 3.74.

Yes , this is an attractive share but there are also other attractive shares in banking sector with better even better PBV.

AGain this is not to say COCR is a bad share just clarifying some stats.
Yes I accept the fact that their EPS 31 march 3.74, That fact that i wanted to highlight by saying their last quarter EPS 5.05 was that there is a great potential of increased EPS by the next two qarters (They publish accounts 6 monthly). If we can expect the results same as last six month for current six month period definitely this company will be very much worth than today. Thank you for you idea and I am exploring other companies in the sector too..............

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smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
See the 2012/2011 figures in a nutshell;

Profit = 758.29 Mil (2012), 60.1 Mil (2011) - 12.5X profit growth or 1250% profit increase Wink
Equity - 1019 Mil
No.of Shares - 218 Mil
NAV = 5.45 (Errata to financials)
EPS = 3.48
PBV = 3.46

Advantages
1. Interest income, other income - More than doubled
2. Fair value of investment property - 27X increased.
3. EPS - 3.48 (0.28 in FY 11/12) which is a 12.4X increase
4. Fixed deposits - 365.3 Mil as compared to 110.6 mil in 2011 which is more than a 300% growth
5. Mirco Finance - 2.7 Bil as compared to 1.07 Bil in 2011 which is more than a 110% growth
6. Other loan itmes - More loans have been provided in Educational, Business, Pawning in 2012.
7. Lease & Hire purchae recieveables - Nearly doubled at 6.1 bil in 2012, 3.8 Bil in 2011
8. Loans and advance recieveables - 2.1X increase..
9. Deposit from Customers - 6.76 Bil, a growth of over 75% from 2011

To be noted - Their Micro finance business is thriving..

Dis-advantages
1. Staff cost - Almost doubled (have to expect with the growing stage of a company. Also salary increments, new hires could've been necessary time to time)
2. Admin Expenses - Increased almost 1.5X
3. Bad and Doubdful loan writ offs - Almost doubled @ 114.1 Mil in 2012.

4. Investment in Securities - VONE 209,000 shres@ 5.225 Mil cost. Now valued at 3.97 Mil. Which is a loss of 1.25 Mil.
Fall in Securities - incurred a loss of 13.8 Mil (as of 30-03-12) financials. This value could've gone down since the market came up.

Conclustion (Not a buy sell decision)
At Today's close of 18.9, PVB = 3.46. This is a higher figure. .Normlly when a finance company trade @2-2.5X, it was said to be normal and anything below this would've been considered undervalued too. This could be counter argued but mostly its an individual's preference of investing companies above 2.5X.

Therefore; on PBV basis the max value this should trade, imo, is about 13.5. When this was around 12 it was clearly undervalued and valuable.
For a share worth 15 rupees they've announced 1 rupee dividend too.. Turned out to be a good dividend yeilding company besides JINS.

So as a an investment my opinion is this and PLC both are valued. The reason for COCR is the growth in micro finance and their revenue growth. Also its to be noted that leasing/hire purchasing sectino could see a fall back in coming days/months due to vehicle tax hike. That's why the more concentration was put into micro finance sector which in turn a thriving business.



Last edited by smallville on Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:48 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : corrected some typos)

fairbullrun

fairbullrun
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks for you guys expert knowledge, i am also looking this kind of analysis for investment. This is I am not taking as buying post but it gives deep thought to think like us beginners.
Good luck
FBR Very Happy

8Commercial Credit (COCR) A Hidden Gem? Empty Re: Commercial Credit (COCR) A Hidden Gem? Sat Oct 13, 2012 11:40 am

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@fairbullrun wrote:Thanks for you guys expert knowledge, i am also looking this kind of analysis for investment. This is I am not taking as buying post but it gives deep thought to think like us beginners.
Good luck
FBR Very Happy
Now the price is @ 17 Levels.. Eagerly waiting for last six month results to collect few more..

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9Commercial Credit (COCR) A Hidden Gem? Empty Re: Commercial Credit (COCR) A Hidden Gem? Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:27 am

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Heavy Collection goes on 15.70 - 16 levels, Is there any new Collectors??????

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