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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » Colombo Stock Exchange cannot expect a major rally until next year – Jafferjee

Colombo Stock Exchange cannot expect a major rally until next year – Jafferjee

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Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
A Sri Lankan stock broker says the Colombo Stock Exchange cannot expect a major rally up until early part of next year.

Murtaza Jafferjee of JB Securities speaking to News360.lk says, for the market to see a real rally, the interest rates should start coming down thus making the stock market an attractive place to invest.

“I don’t see a major rally, because interest rates should start to come down for that to happen” points out Jafferjee.

“Turn in the cycle will only happen next year” the acclaimed stock analyst added.

Jafferjee’s claims come amidst a 19% rise in the Colombo stock Exchange’s main index during the past four week’s time, which ended yesterday.

Stock Brokers say this trend is on the back of increasing interest in blue chip stocks and wider retail participation.

Thursday also saw the All Share Price Index of the CSE reaching a 7 month high.

However Jafferjee, who is the Managing Director of Colombo based JB Securities says, in any market there will be rallies.

He believes the current trend in the market is not an indicative of a major turnaround in the Colombo bourse.

“Turn in the cycle will only happen next year” added Jafferjee.

He says, this is a traders market and the long-term investors should look for stocks with value.

“People should understand what they are buying. If you don’t understand what you’re buying, you’re speculative” he concluded.
Reporting by: Prasanna C. Rodrigo
http://www.news360.lk/markets/stock-market/news-market-sri-lanka-14-09-2012-colombo-stock-exchange-cannot-expect-a-major-rally-until-next-year-%E2%80%93-jafferjee-678543

gamaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I hope Mr. Jefergee would know of the phenomenen called discounting for future. That is stock markets react to upcoming events months in advance. That's explained By Mr. William O' Neil in his book.

wiki


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
ඔබතුමා කියන්නේ සති දෙකෙන් පොයින්ට් 1000 උඩ යනවා කියනේ ලොකු රැල්ලලක් නෙවෙ කියලද ? scratch

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@wiki wrote:ඔබතුමා කියන්නේ සති දෙකෙන් පොයින්ට් 1000 උඩ යනවා කියනේ ලොකු රැල්ලලක් නෙවෙ කියලද ? scratch
i think what he means is the good is yet to come...... Very Happy

study
TAH

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
He missed the Train... If you are smart you should be able to see that Interest rates are projected to be lower... Some people are so hatred when they missed the train they pelt stones.. he he.. Mr. Jaferjee / Harsha / Ravi are in that group.. Sorry guys.. missed oppotunity can be called as misery...........................

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

Market Sucker

Market Sucker
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Sorry thama kollo,oya dan parakkui...dan ithin uda balan hitapiya Razz Twisted Evil



Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Turn in the cycle will only happen next year” the acclaimed stock analyst Razz Razz added.

What a prophecy lol! lol! lol!

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

“Turn in the cycle will only happen next year” the acclaimed stock analyst added.


Then; there should be a consolidation in coming days..


Stock Brokers say this trend is on the back of increasing interest in blue chip stocks and wider retail participation.

Indeed this is needed for the crap to fall back..


However Jafferjee, who is the Managing Director of Colombo based JB Securities says, in any market there will be rallies.

Ok.. we never knew that Twisted Evil


He believes the current trend in the market is not an indicative of a major turnaround in the Colombo bourse.

Would you say Dumping is on now??? while retailers rally around fundamentals this much.. oh boy..


“People should understand what they are buying. If you don’t understand what you’re buying, you’re speculative” he concluded.

OOPS.. I wonder would Mr. Rajapakse of CT counter argue.. According to him you should buy counters which are going up for no reason or rhyme.. U should know that he conducted day trading seminars to teach these to our poor fellas..
So Dont go saying things like this...


anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Considering one determinant, that of interest rate and publicly passing comment in the media is immature.

A depreciated currency (by more than 16% within the year) makes the market attractive for foreigners, and that contributed to the inflow of more than 29Bn to the market upto date.
Instability in regional markets and less returns from euro zones gives more comfort for foreigners to look at CSE.

Some large scale strategic investments by foreigners (like in ODEL) also give more assurance.

When corporates as well as retailers find that the tug of war at SEC has somewhat silenced, that no instability at regulatory level, they see long term value and get back. For most of investors, it does not matter who is right and who is wrong; whether there is mafia or whether it is phobia.!
All what matters in the stability.

I do not foresee a situation of huge correction. Definitely there can be dull days with usual corrections and swings in individual shares based information flow.
(Just my personal opinion, contradicting with one doomsday prediction. By no means I ask anyone to be very bullish based on this!)

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think interest rate reduction is imminent, according to CB data, trade gap narrowed to 17 month low, imports reduced dramatically, BoP to be cushioned by foreign remittance and tourism earning and also bond issues. Trading volumes of billions means there is not only retailers but high profile people as well as institutions,in the play. I think PBJ and Cabba hinted some facts during their speaches. We ll get some announcements in next few months and in budget speach. We know in Sri Lanka who gets the critical news first.We know Jaferjees are big time investors in CSE, but I couldn't remember he or his brokering firm advised the retailers in 2011 February that the CSE is extremely overvalued with PE more than 25 and it s time to exit. However now he is coming forward and telling do not buy now but wait till next year, I smell a fish here.
Whatever happens it's good to make informed decisions.

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@WildBear wrote:I think interest rate reduction is imminent, according to CB data, trade gap narrowed to 17 month low, imports reduced dramatically, BoP to be cushioned by foreign remittance and tourism earning and also bond issues. Trading volumes of billions means there is not only retailers but high profile people as well as institutions,in the play. I think PBJ and Cabba hinted some facts during their speaches. We ll get some announcements in next few months and in budget speach. We know in Sri Lanka who gets the critical news first.We know Jaferjees are big time investors in CSE, but I couldn't remember he or his brokering firm advised the retailers in 2011 February that the CSE is extremely overvalued with PE more than 25 and it s time to exit. However now he is coming forward and telling do not buy now but wait till next year, I smell a fish here.
Whatever happens it's good to make informed decisions.

Exactly..! The fish stinks so much, so that many can notice...!

TortoizePlus

TortoizePlus
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@anu wrote:
@WildBear wrote:I think interest rate reduction is imminent, according to CB data, trade gap narrowed to 17 month low, imports reduced dramatically, BoP to be cushioned by foreign remittance and tourism earning and also bond issues. Trading volumes of billions means there is not only retailers but high profile people as well as institutions,in the play. I think PBJ and Cabba hinted some facts during their speaches. We ll get some announcements in next few months and in budget speach. We know in Sri Lanka who gets the critical news first.We know Jaferjees are big time investors in CSE, but I couldn't remember he or his brokering firm advised the retailers in 2011 February that the CSE is extremely overvalued with PE more than 25 and it s time to exit. However now he is coming forward and telling do not buy now but wait till next year, I smell a fish here.
Whatever happens it's good to make informed decisions.

Exactly..! The fish stinks so much, so that many can notice...!

Look at this article, he has advised in 2010-Aug to take the profit and go. I saw this at that time but never believe him

http://www.news360.lk/interviews/cse-on-a-bubble-will-fallout-badly-when-the-bubble-bursts-says-top-analyst

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@TortoizePlus wrote:
@anu wrote:
@WildBear wrote:I think interest rate reduction is imminent, according to CB data, trade gap narrowed to 17 month low, imports reduced dramatically, BoP to be cushioned by foreign remittance and tourism earning and also bond issues. Trading volumes of billions means there is not only retailers but high profile people as well as institutions,in the play. I think PBJ and Cabba hinted some facts during their speaches. We ll get some announcements in next few months and in budget speach. We know in Sri Lanka who gets the critical news first.We know Jaferjees are big time investors in CSE, but I couldn't remember he or his brokering firm advised the retailers in 2011 February that the CSE is extremely overvalued with PE more than 25 and it s time to exit. However now he is coming forward and telling do not buy now but wait till next year, I smell a fish here.
Whatever happens it's good to make informed decisions.

Exactly..! The fish stinks so much, so that many can notice...!

Look at this article, he has advised in 2010-Aug to take the profit and go. I saw this at that time but never believe him

http://www.news360.lk/interviews/cse-on-a-bubble-will-fallout-badly-when-the-bubble-bursts-says-top-analyst

From that I understand he is a good analyst.

But did you notice when he sadi this. It was august 2010, when ASI was aroudn 5000. Remember the biggest boom was yet to come in Sept 2010 and then few 2011. So selling out when ASI was at 5000 would have been a massive opportunity loss.

Bottom line no one can predict exaclty all the time. CSE is a small market that sudden things ( good or bad) can happen. So it is best not to be biased too much to one specific opinion and play as it goes. This is mainly true to short term palyers with less holding power and patience.

TortoizePlus

TortoizePlus
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
@TortoizePlus wrote:
@anu wrote:
@WildBear wrote:I think interest rate reduction is imminent, according to CB data, trade gap narrowed to 17 month low, imports reduced dramatically, BoP to be cushioned by foreign remittance and tourism earning and also bond issues. Trading volumes of billions means there is not only retailers but high profile people as well as institutions,in the play. I think PBJ and Cabba hinted some facts during their speaches. We ll get some announcements in next few months and in budget speach. We know in Sri Lanka who gets the critical news first.We know Jaferjees are big time investors in CSE, but I couldn't remember he or his brokering firm advised the retailers in 2011 February that the CSE is extremely overvalued with PE more than 25 and it s time to exit. However now he is coming forward and telling do not buy now but wait till next year, I smell a fish here.
Whatever happens it's good to make informed decisions.

Exactly..! The fish stinks so much, so that many can notice...!

Look at this article, he has advised in 2010-Aug to take the profit and go. I saw this at that time but never believe him

http://www.news360.lk/interviews/cse-on-a-bubble-will-fallout-badly-when-the-bubble-bursts-says-top-analyst

From that I understand he is a good analyst.

But did you notice when he sadi this. It was august 2010, when ASI was aroudn 5000. Remember the biggest boom was yet to come in Sept 2010 and then few 2011. So selling out when ASI was at 5000 would have been a massive opportunity loss.

Bottom line no one can predict exaclty all the time. CSE is a small market that sudden things ( good or bad) can happen. So it is best not to be biased too much to one specific opinion and play as it goes. This is mainly true to short term palyers with less holding power and patience.

Agreed. I wanted to tell you that we cannot easily discard people like Jefa...
Some people putting comments here thinks they are too smart..
Note: I don't have any personal connection with Jefa..

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Tortoiz plus, as slstock pointed, in 2010 also he gave a wrong advice, in 2 years timewe can see whether he is true or not, too early to comment about his current advice

Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@TortoizePlus wrote:
@slstock wrote:
@TortoizePlus wrote:
@anu wrote:
@WildBear wrote:I think interest rate reduction is imminent, according to CB data, trade gap narrowed to 17 month low, imports reduced dramatically, BoP to be cushioned by foreign remittance and tourism earning and also bond issues. Trading volumes of billions means there is not only retailers but high profile people as well as institutions,in the play. I think PBJ and Cabba hinted some facts during their speaches. We ll get some announcements in next few months and in budget speach. We know in Sri Lanka who gets the critical news first.We know Jaferjees are big time investors in CSE, but I couldn't remember he or his brokering firm advised the retailers in 2011 February that the CSE is extremely overvalued with PE more than 25 and it s time to exit. However now he is coming forward and telling do not buy now but wait till next year, I smell a fish here.
Whatever happens it's good to make informed decisions.

Exactly..! The fish stinks so much, so that many can notice...!

Look at this article, he has advised in 2010-Aug to take the profit and go. I saw this at that time but never believe him

http://www.news360.lk/interviews/cse-on-a-bubble-will-fallout-badly-when-the-bubble-bursts-says-top-analyst

From that I understand he is a good analyst.

But did you notice when he sadi this. It was august 2010, when ASI was aroudn 5000. Remember the biggest boom was yet to come in Sept 2010 and then few 2011. So selling out when ASI was at 5000 would have been a massive opportunity loss.

Bottom line no one can predict exaclty all the time. CSE is a small market that sudden things ( good or bad) can happen. So it is best not to be biased too much to one specific opinion and play as it goes. This is mainly true to short term palyers with less holding power and patience.

Agreed. I wanted to tell you that we cannot easily discard people like Jefa...
Some people putting comments here thinks they are too smart..
Note: I don't have any personal connection with Jefa..

Anyone even with some sort of experience can say what has said in 2010.As slstock has pointed out it would have been a massive opportunity loss if some one got exit at that time.If he pointed out the real top then I would say he is a good analyst.I can remember few of our members pointed out that---not exactly but with a more precision than Jefa....

Even in this bear market I can remember one member said to collect slowly when market was around 5000(as far as I can remember) and most importantantly he told it with adequate time to collect.If some one has followed his advice now he/she has to be very happy.

Stefan


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Since the last time he predicted the market would drop when it was at 5000 and it then went upto 7800, now since market is close to 6000, it may go up to 8800.

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@whitebull, that what I wanted to say, in adition to above Jaferjee didn't tell us to collect undervalued shares when some solid stocks stocks ere trading at unbelievably low levels when QSI was 4700 few months back. But our forum embers like slstock,chinwi, smallville etc gave more rational views. I ve been investing in CSE for more than 8 years, but broker firms rarely advice the clients to sell stocks because they are overvalued. Most if the time they advice to buy, it is obvious that there is a huge conflict of interest, as brokers business is to get brokerage fee by stock trading and also their related companies invest in stocks at the same market.
Thats what I said , better to make your well informed decisions rather than entirely depend on broker recomnendation.

WIRU


Stock Trader
This is the final page of JB Securities research report issued to their customers in JULY 2012.

Concluding remarks

Bull markets are 7 year cycles (1993-4, 2002-3 and 2009-11) – next one is not due anytime soon. Thus there will be no rising tide to lift ALL boats.

Equity market is in its consolidation phase – market will go sideways for the remainder of this year. Nevertheless, a sideways market offers many opportunities to invest in undervalued securities as the potential for mispricing is larger.

The low free float large market cap stocks in the indices are masking the true extent of the fall in the market – many stocks have fallen 50-60% from their peak.

Nominal GDP growth will be around 13-14% in the medium term – large firm revenues will grow at a CAGR of around 16-17%, EBITDA will grow 18-19%.

Free float is further constrained since there will be reluctance to sell at a loss especially amongst state controlled institutions.

Value is returning to the market – some stocks are now trading below their intrinsic values.

Trying to time the market is futile – jumping on the band wagon when it’s moving is a losing proposition.

Equity ownership is low – an ageing population will necessitate greater allocation to equities to meet retirement needs.

Build a diversified portfolio by accumulating equities in stages – 10%:20%:30%:40%

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Wiru,

I'm not saying the facts you have listed down (as given by JB) are non-achievable, but most of these are "Will be, can be" kinda statements..

We should hence respect these with due attention given to the most possibilities now a days..

I used to read broker researches, some have given dream targets for some shares based on many criteria without considering the credit issues that could screw the investors (like in 20122 bear phase) and market support/ resistance levels.. Thes are not there for fun as they've been derived from the psychological factors of human thinking.

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