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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » Colombo Stock Exchange cannot expect a major rally until next year – Jafferjee

Colombo Stock Exchange cannot expect a major rally until next year – Jafferjee

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Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@TortoizePlus wrote:
@slstock wrote:
@TortoizePlus wrote:
@anu wrote:
@WildBear wrote:I think interest rate reduction is imminent, according to CB data, trade gap narrowed to 17 month low, imports reduced dramatically, BoP to be cushioned by foreign remittance and tourism earning and also bond issues. Trading volumes of billions means there is not only retailers but high profile people as well as institutions,in the play. I think PBJ and Cabba hinted some facts during their speaches. We ll get some announcements in next few months and in budget speach. We know in Sri Lanka who gets the critical news first.We know Jaferjees are big time investors in CSE, but I couldn't remember he or his brokering firm advised the retailers in 2011 February that the CSE is extremely overvalued with PE more than 25 and it s time to exit. However now he is coming forward and telling do not buy now but wait till next year, I smell a fish here.
Whatever happens it's good to make informed decisions.

Exactly..! The fish stinks so much, so that many can notice...!

Look at this article, he has advised in 2010-Aug to take the profit and go. I saw this at that time but never believe him

http://www.news360.lk/interviews/cse-on-a-bubble-will-fallout-badly-when-the-bubble-bursts-says-top-analyst

From that I understand he is a good analyst.

But did you notice when he sadi this. It was august 2010, when ASI was aroudn 5000. Remember the biggest boom was yet to come in Sept 2010 and then few 2011. So selling out when ASI was at 5000 would have been a massive opportunity loss.

Bottom line no one can predict exaclty all the time. CSE is a small market that sudden things ( good or bad) can happen. So it is best not to be biased too much to one specific opinion and play as it goes. This is mainly true to short term palyers with less holding power and patience.

Agreed. I wanted to tell you that we cannot easily discard people like Jefa...
Some people putting comments here thinks they are too smart..
Note: I don't have any personal connection with Jefa..

Anyone even with some sort of experience can say what has said in 2010.As slstock has pointed out it would have been a massive opportunity loss if some one got exit at that time.If he pointed out the real top then I would say he is a good analyst.I can remember few of our members pointed out that---not exactly but with a more precision than Jefa....

Even in this bear market I can remember one member said to collect slowly when market was around 5000(as far as I can remember) and most importantantly he told it with adequate time to collect.If some one has followed his advice now he/she has to be very happy.

Stefan


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Since the last time he predicted the market would drop when it was at 5000 and it then went upto 7800, now since market is close to 6000, it may go up to 8800.

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@whitebull, that what I wanted to say, in adition to above Jaferjee didn't tell us to collect undervalued shares when some solid stocks stocks ere trading at unbelievably low levels when QSI was 4700 few months back. But our forum embers like slstock,chinwi, smallville etc gave more rational views. I ve been investing in CSE for more than 8 years, but broker firms rarely advice the clients to sell stocks because they are overvalued. Most if the time they advice to buy, it is obvious that there is a huge conflict of interest, as brokers business is to get brokerage fee by stock trading and also their related companies invest in stocks at the same market.
Thats what I said , better to make your well informed decisions rather than entirely depend on broker recomnendation.

WIRU


Stock Trader
This is the final page of JB Securities research report issued to their customers in JULY 2012.

Concluding remarks

Bull markets are 7 year cycles (1993-4, 2002-3 and 2009-11) – next one is not due anytime soon. Thus there will be no rising tide to lift ALL boats.

Equity market is in its consolidation phase – market will go sideways for the remainder of this year. Nevertheless, a sideways market offers many opportunities to invest in undervalued securities as the potential for mispricing is larger.

The low free float large market cap stocks in the indices are masking the true extent of the fall in the market – many stocks have fallen 50-60% from their peak.

Nominal GDP growth will be around 13-14% in the medium term – large firm revenues will grow at a CAGR of around 16-17%, EBITDA will grow 18-19%.

Free float is further constrained since there will be reluctance to sell at a loss especially amongst state controlled institutions.

Value is returning to the market – some stocks are now trading below their intrinsic values.

Trying to time the market is futile – jumping on the band wagon when it’s moving is a losing proposition.

Equity ownership is low – an ageing population will necessitate greater allocation to equities to meet retirement needs.

Build a diversified portfolio by accumulating equities in stages – 10%:20%:30%:40%

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Wiru,

I'm not saying the facts you have listed down (as given by JB) are non-achievable, but most of these are "Will be, can be" kinda statements..

We should hence respect these with due attention given to the most possibilities now a days..

I used to read broker researches, some have given dream targets for some shares based on many criteria without considering the credit issues that could screw the investors (like in 20122 bear phase) and market support/ resistance levels.. Thes are not there for fun as they've been derived from the psychological factors of human thinking.

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
There are wrong facts in above JB report, we had the longest bull run in recent history, from 2002 to 2008, if you check a chart of ASI, MPI or any other large cap stock like JKH or DIST etc you will see the pattern,
On the other hand there are no such predictable 7 year bear bull cycles like whether patterns, all thos patterns were driven by specific reasons. Eg, late 90s to 2002 there was economical and political uncertinity in SL, we can remember Central Bank and the. Air port was bombed buy the terrorists and in 2001 economy turned to be negative growth, the same pattern was evidenced in CSE, then 2002, cease fire agreement, peace process, favourable economic policy of UNP triggered a bull period, the post pstunami construction boom, continued peace process, flooding of NGOs with good. GDP growth propelled the CSE to new hights till 2007.
Then after 2007, North East war escalated, Bomb blasts in Colombo, resulted in slow down of economic activity , low GDP, massive inflation coupled with global economic downturn have beaten the market heavily. Then after 2009 I do not have to repeat what happened. Later 2011, market had a massive correction coupled with foreign fund outflow from CSE(Also from other global emerging markets), high interest rates, credit bubble etc created a bear.
So all these previous petterns of CSE is driven by specific economic and political factors , but not just periodic patterns such as weather, rain season etc.








Vptilak


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@TortoizePlus wrote:
@slstock wrote:
@TortoizePlus wrote:
@anu wrote:
@WildBear wrote:I think interest rate reduction is imminent, according to CB data, trade gap narrowed to 17 month low, imports reduced dramatically, BoP to be cushioned by foreign remittance and tourism earning and also bond issues. Trading volumes of billions means there is not only retailers but high profile people as well as institutions,in the play. I think PBJ and Cabba hinted some facts during their speaches. We ll get some announcements in next few months and in budget speach. We know in Sri Lanka who gets the critical news first.We know Jaferjees are big time investors in CSE, but I couldn't remember he or his brokering firm advised the retailers in 2011 February that the CSE is extremely overvalued with PE more than 25 and it s time to exit. However now he is coming forward and telling do not buy now but wait till next year, I smell a fish here.
Whatever happens it's good to make informed decisions.

Exactly..! The fish stinks so much, so that many can notice...!

Look at this article, he has advised in 2010-Aug to take the profit and go. I saw this at that time but never believe him

http://www.news360.lk/interviews/cse-on-a-bubble-will-fallout-badly-when-the-bubble-bursts-says-top-analyst

From that I understand he is a good analyst.

But did you notice when he sadi this. It was august 2010, when ASI was aroudn 5000. Remember the biggest boom was yet to come in Sept 2010 and then few 2011. So selling out when ASI was at 5000 would have been a massive opportunity loss.

Bottom line no one can predict exaclty all the time. CSE is a small market that sudden things ( good or bad) can happen. So it is best not to be biased too much to one specific opinion and play as it goes. This is mainly true to short term palyers with less holding power and patience.

Agreed. I wanted to tell you that we cannot easily discard people like Jefa...
Some people putting comments here thinks they are too smart..
Note: I don't have any personal connection with Jefa..


In August 2010 he has badly misdirected investors. Investors sold their PF at ASI around 5000 . Totaly dispointed. Pl look at following figures;

02.Aug. 2010 ASI 5182
31.Aug. 2010 ASI 5658
30 Sep. 2010 ASI 6997
29 Oct. 2010 ASI 6678
30 Nov. 2010 ASI 6434
31 Dec. 2010 ASI 6635
31 Jan. 2011 ASI 7174
28 Feb. 2011 ASI 7797

So how can we trust their preditions.

player

player
Moderator
Moderator
terrible guy,better luck next time jefree Twisted Evil

@slstock-respect your experience,im reading your posts whenever look in to forum Smile

Sidath

Sidath
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
he is a very theory driven man. Does not look at the sentiment of the market



Last edited by Sidath on Tue Sep 18, 2012 10:21 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : mistake)

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