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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » Malaysia palm oil prices may fall at least 7 pct in Q4-analyst

Malaysia palm oil prices may fall at least 7 pct in Q4-analyst

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Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Reuters – 1 hour 3 minutes ago

NEW DELHI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) prices may fall nearly 7 percent to 2,575 ringgit per tonne in the last quarter of 2012 from current levels if Brent crude oil prices come down to $95 per barrel, a top analyst said on Saturday.

"I am bearish on crude oil prices. They should come down. Demand is slowing due to a slowdown in the global economy," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, said at the Globoil India conference here.

"Eventually new supplies (deep sea, tar sands and shale oil) and weak demand growth, led by substitution by natural gas, will pull the market back to earth as oil stocks climb," he added.

Vegetable oil prices benefit from higher crude levels as their use as biofuels, which are seen as greener alternatives to petrol and diesel, becomes more economically attractive.

On Friday, benchmark palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 2 percent to close at 2,763 ringgit ($905) per tonne, after hitting an 11-month low of 2,755 ringgit earlier in the day. Brent crude closed at $111.42 per barrel.

He expects the CPO price in the fourth quarter (Oct-Dec) to be 2,285 ringgits if the crude price is $80 per barrel, more than 17 percent down from the current level, although he sees palm oil recovering to 2,450 ringgits in the first quarter of 2013.

"Crude oil is now the key to vegetable oil prices," Fry said in his presentation slides.

The premium of CPO over petroleum prices has fallen sharply since July due to rising inventories, Fry said.

"Mills must put oil into their tanks every day, regardless of the final demand. This makes them into permanent 'distress sellers' and helps explain why CPO always trades at a discount" (to other edible oils).

The London-based analyst forecast Indonesia's palm oil output in 2012 could rise by 8.1 percent to 27.25 million tonnes, while Malaysia may see a 3 percent drop in it production to 18.34 million tonnes.
(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhave; Editing by Jo Winterbottom)
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/malaysia-palm-oil-prices-may-081543725.html

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
James Fry is one of many analyst who makes calls on Palm oil Prices. These are some comments extracted from PalmOil HQ site in the past week which are self explanatory :
Quote
CPO prices will also likely be supported by tight vegetable oil markets–dwindling soybean supplies from the U.S. amid robust demand, a second Kuala Lumpur-based trader said, noting that the U.S. already has sold 70% of the projected exports for the 2012-13 marketing year that started Sept. 1.

"We believe crude palm oil prices are close to bottoming out and will regain upward trajectory once we are past the peak production in September and October," Macquarie Research said in a note Friday.

CPO is priced attractively relative to soyoil, trading at a $300/ton price discount compared with the historical average of $150/ton, which should shift demand, it said.

Deteriorating soy supplies in the U.S. at a time of rising Southeast Asian CPO supplies are keeping soyoil's premium at more than $300/ton to palm oil. The wide price gap limits further falls, Rabobank said in a note. "Tight supplies of soyoil will increasingly shift demand to palm oil in coming months."

Hopes of further stimulus measures in China are also rising, which is positive for CPO, a Singapore-based trader said, referring to a hint from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao Tuesday that China is ready to inject massive stimulus into the economy.

Morgan Stanley forecast in a report this week that CPO prices could touch as high as $1,200/ton, or about MYR3,685/ton, by the second quarter of next year as demand from China and India is expected to rebound.
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