So you can realize there is an uncertainty of this stock prices. (It will depend on how many traders are there on the stock). Because you got above point by analyzing the history of stock prices, you will often face above process. But if you have a true and accurate news about that stock you can say it will hit some specific price on near future as you own a crystal ball. Even Though you can't tell the time when this stock hit that price. So you can analyse and tell some specific time period for it. We call you a fundamentalist if you can do that kind of job. So it is not a myth. But there is a risk. That's why qualified traders are earn money while others not. Professionals use this risk as an opportunity to make money.
So don't enter a large order if you are not familiar about these risks and analysis. But you will make profit because of there is an uncertainty. Hence your profit will not be large when you target maximum profit.
We can believe fundamental analysis than historical analysis. But keep historical analysis to prove your target to some far. So be update with your target stock's news. They will get you to the target.