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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Next Support level 5750?

Next Support level 5750?

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1Next Support level 5750? Empty Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:21 pm

sirdude

sirdude
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Hi guys correct me if I m wrong... will this down trend stop at 5750... and start going up again ? and eventually will pass 6100 in another bull run ? drunken

I seriously think its about time for a U turn as most of you say around 5750 cheers

https://www.facebook.com/ForexTraders.SriLanka

2Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:41 pm

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Look at it this way,

Where will CSE be next year, next 3 years, next 5 years, next 10 years.
it will help you better!

Cheers!

3Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:42 pm

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sirdude wrote:Hi guys correct me if I m wrong... will this down trend stop at 5750... and start going up again ? and eventually will pass 6100 in another bull run ? drunken :

pass 6500... Very Happy Shocked Laughing

4Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:48 pm

anjelo

anjelo
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
i seriously think the big fish are collecting slowly now. after that they will push shares sky high!!!!!

5Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:56 pm

sirdude

sirdude
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@anjelo wrote:i seriously think the big fish are collecting slowly now. after that they will push shares sky high!!!!!

We thought the same the day it started going red... and it has been red ever since but for a couple of slightly greener days... what do you think ? will it succumb and bleed all the way to where it was ? I m just an amateur.. please respond

confused

https://www.facebook.com/ForexTraders.SriLanka

6Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:09 pm

Dr_CSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I am not a technical analyst. But my observation was market has turned around before the anticipated support levels previously. I dont believe that peoples psychology can be measured on a technical analysis alone. If guys are positive and not much foreign outflow witnessed, I hope and pray that market will turnaround at 5780 -5790 levels, ahead of 5750.

7Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:21 pm

market bull

market bull
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
will it break 5780l nicely. wait & see.

8Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:32 pm

Dr_CSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Guys i dont see we have much to panic about the index from now onwards. If you see the RSI for ASI, now it is aound 58 which is similar to when ASI was around 5020 - 5080 range. So we are out of over-bought region and in a neutral region now. So it is the herd psychology or the market sentiment is the decisive factor of the market direction from now onwards. Please correct me if i am wrong.

9Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:50 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Dr_CSE wrote:I am not a technical analyst. But my observation was market has turned around before the anticipated support levels previously. I dont believe that peoples psychology can be measured on a technical analysis alone. If guys are positive and not much foreign outflow witnessed, I hope and pray that market will turnaround at 5780 -5790 levels, ahead of 5750.

I think we passed these levels today. When adjusted ASI published it may touch 5750. Index levels are just some indicators. Best strategy should be invest in companies that are about to give good results in the immediate future. In the rally we trade everything. If market is going through a dull period, best option is to be with the companies that are going to report good results in difficult times and companies that are going to give news. Today we saw plenty of buying for those type of shares.

Rapaport has shown a good strategy. Though we go through corrections where can be it in end of 2012, 2013, 2014, etc.

Every down turn will give opportunities. Don't run away from it.

10Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 3:01 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
If you are following indexes, most damage came from JKH. At one instance it was down by almost 3%. This down turn in JKH is not unexpected. It's down more than 10% from the peak it reached couple of weeks back.

Only problem is there's no other index heavy share at the moment to shoulder the pressure. We are truly missing the capabilities of GREG.

11Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 3:29 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
What we need is some natural market
forces to finish acting now. A huge run from 5000 to 5900 was seen
without big breaks. Then market got into overbought status. Maybe were
waiting to realize profit as soon as there was negativity was seen. So
when it happened other started chain reactions selling.

However
note that the selling volumes are not massive yet. Also now the market
is heading towards the lower neutral regions which is healthier for a
better run than before whenever it is going to happen.

We cannot
extactly say when the market is going to turn as some big push if need
to get out of the selling mentality and sentiment change . Few retailers
cannot do it. So whether the market will head to asi 5750 - 5700 or not
is something we will be watching.

But sudden turning can happen at any point. Also many might be waiting on side lines to see sept reports,

I
expect some strong companies which survived the bad times in june to
survive and maybe outrperform in Sept. But we should not expect better
results from most companies as these higher interest rates still are
eating into company profits which are having lot of debt.

12Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 3:55 pm

Deva


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The problem is that our investors are very much dependent on ASPI & MPI indicators. As we are a small market, high market cap shares plays a big role in the behavior of the market.

If we consider heavy weights like JKH, COMB, CTC & SAMP they hold nearly 20% of the total market capitalization. If there is a small fluctuation in their prices, indicators gives a bad signal.

Therefore, don't take your decisions based on ASPI & MPI. Most of the panic sets in with these indicators.

13Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 7:33 pm

notme

notme
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Deva wrote:The problem is that our investors are very much dependent on ASPI & MPI indicators. As we are a small market, high market cap shares plays a big role in the behavior of the market.

If we consider heavy weights like JKH, COMB, CTC & SAMP they hold nearly 20% of the total market capitalization. If there is a small fluctuation in their prices, indicators gives a bad signal.

Therefore, don't take your decisions based on ASPI & MPI. Most of the panic sets in with these indicators.

good point of view.

14Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 7:52 pm

Sakalabujan


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@Rapaport wrote:Look at it this way,

Where will CSE be next year, next 3 years, next 5 years, next 10 years.
it will help you better!

Cheers!

Echchara kaalayak kohoma mei duka iwasannada puthei Crying or Very sadCrying or Very sadCrying or Very sad

15Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 7:54 pm

StockGuru

StockGuru
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
What should we buy?

16Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:11 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Deva wrote:The problem is that our investors are very much dependent on ASPI & MPI indicators. As we are a small market, high market cap shares plays a big role in the behavior of the market.

If we consider heavy weights like JKH, COMB, CTC & SAMP they hold nearly 20% of the total market capitalization. If there is a small fluctuation in their prices, indicators gives a bad signal.

Therefore, don't take your decisions based on ASPI & MPI. Most of the panic sets in with these indicators.

Exactly, Investors should understand and bear the impact of price adjustments. We know JKH has raised 15-20% within a month. DIST had risen by 33% during last 90 days. NDB had almost a 50% rise from July. CDIC, CTCE also had gone to a level that cannot be match by earnings, at least in the SEP 2012 quarter. So we have to expect some pressure on the indexes.

Small investors are sensitive to index figures. The guys who know this are manipulating these hi-cap shares in order to change the sentiments. No point of blaming them. People should be able to carry out their decisions without looking at indexes. If you know why you are investing in a particular share and the time frame you are looking at and the risks that you can tolerate, then you are proof to index fluctuations.


17Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:30 pm

wiki


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Deva wrote:The problem is that our investors are very much dependent on ASPI & MPI indicators. As we are a small market, high market cap shares plays a big role in the behavior of the market.

If we consider heavy weights like JKH, COMB, CTC & SAMP they hold nearly 20% of the total market capitalization. If there is a small fluctuation in their prices, indicators gives a bad signal.

Therefore, don't take your decisions based on ASPI & MPI. Most of the panic sets in with these indicators.

This is true.........but we talk about RSI (now has come to natural level) based on the ASPI.which is in turn gives false value..

18Next Support level 5750? Empty Re: Next Support level 5750? Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:05 am

anjelo

anjelo
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@hariesha wrote:If you are following indexes, most damage came from JKH. At one instance it was down by almost 3%. This down turn in JKH is not unexpected. It's down more than 10% from the peak it reached couple of weeks back.

Only problem is there's no other index heavy share at the moment to shoulder the pressure. We are truly missing the capabilities of GREG.


so you mean that if GREG hits high, the ASI will rise fast????
is GREG that much capitalized???

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