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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Bear is Back?

Bear is Back?

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1Bear is Back? Empty Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:03 am

anjelo

anjelo
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Bear is Back???

2Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:39 am

notme

notme
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
will turn back anytime.

3Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:46 am

zenobia


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
is not it strange that the market has to go down like this? has this something to do with the world markets?

4Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:48 am

fairbullrun

fairbullrun
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@notme wrote:will turn back anytime.

Ayyoo....how long then small people have to wait, if long time this; we may not able to survive Sad

5Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:06 am

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Bit to add..
Even after the credit relaxations, some broker firms started to send warning letters to small scale investors to settle the credit. It is something fishy this contradictory actions in CSE. One thing is clear. If there is a strong run in CSE, broker firms and UHNWI's make sure no small scale investors can play as high people do. it is seems to be sort of eliminating process. Only people who play in cash and patience can take the advantage in this game. Smile

6Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:32 am

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator

Stocks steady, set for losing week on growth concerns
Published : 12:00 am October 13, 2012 | 15 views | One comment | Print This Post | E-mail to friend

SINGAPORE (Reuters): Asian stocks and the euro steadied on Friday, but were on course for a losing week as worries about weak corporate earnings and slowing global economic growth limit the appeal of riskier assets.


A rally that had pushed global equities up around 15 percent from the lows of early June stalled this week. Investors were treading carefully with the third quarter reporting season under way and eyes on how J.P. Morgan fares when it posts its results later on Friday in the United States. “Then we’ll have more earnings next week, and the expectations are not high,” said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities in Tokyo. “If results are disappointing, stocks will sell off, so that makes it difficult to buy now.” Commodities – with the exception of oil – were also mostly set to end the week in the red as investors fretted about the slowdown in key consumer China, which is due to release its latest trade data at the weekend.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei was flat after closing at its lowest in two months on Thursday.
The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is down 1 percent on the week, while the Nikkei has shed around 3.5 percent.
Wall Street stocks ended flat on Thursday, after gains made on data showing the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell to the lowest in more than four-and-a-half years were erased in part by a drop in Apple shares after a U.S. court overturned a sales ban on Samsung Electronic’s smartphones in their patent battle.
S&P 500 index futures traded in Asia were up 0.2 percent, suggesting modest gains when U.S. trading resumes.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is holding its semi-annual meeting in Tokyo, underlined concerns about the health of the world economy this week when it cut its global growth forecast for the second time since April.
Those fears have reduced investors’ enthusiasm for riskier assets and lifted the safe-haven dollar and government debt. The dollar was flat against a basket of major currencies on Friday, leaving it on course for a 0.6 percent gain on the week.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was steady around 1.679 percent, close to its lowest level this week. The euro steadied after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said she favoured giving debt-burdened Greece and Spain more time to reduce their budget deficits because cutting too far and too fast would do more harm than good.
Lagarde’s comments were seen supporting stability in the euro zone, where Spain is widely expected to become the first of the “big four” economies to seek an international bailout.
“Everyone is still waiting on Spain to request aid and for the ECB to eventually start buying bonds,” said Gareth Berry, G10 FX strategist for UBS in Singapore. “Until that really happens it’s hard to see (currencies) break decisively out of current ranges.” The euro was flat around $1.2925 on Friday after three days of declines that have left it down around 0.8 percent on the week. Copper had bounced off two-week lows on Thursday and iron ore prices rose to an 11-week high, moves that boosted mining stocks in Asia on Friday.
But the rally was shortlived, with copper falling around 0.5 percent on Friday to just below $8,200 a tonne, on course for a loss of more than 1 percent on the week. Gold was flat near $1,770 an ounce.
Tensions between Turkey and Syria continued to support oil, with Brent crude holding above $115 a barrel, set for its biggest weekly gain in two months, while U.S. crude firmed above $92. “Crude is responding positively to the U.S. economic data and ongoing tensions in the Middle East are adding to supply concerns,” said Tim Waterer, a senior trader at CMC Global Markets in Sydney.

7Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:44 am

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
https://i.servimg.com/u/f35/16/55/29/78/histor10.jpg

The above chart posted by Dileepa, decisively puts to rest, the widespread myth that the SL market functions independently to the global and regional trends.

Any opinions to the contrary ?

8Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:26 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/t-t-t/ Smile

Cheers!

9Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:29 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
@anubis wrote:http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/t-t-t/ Smile

Cheers!

Beauty Very Happy

10Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:47 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Backstage wrote:https://i.servimg.com/u/f35/16/55/29/78/histor10.jpg

The above chart posted by Dileepa, decisively puts to rest, the widespread myth that the SL market functions independently to the global and regional trends.

Any opinions to the contrary ?

What is represented on the Y axis? That chart is meaningless without proper coordinates or many other stuff. That sure as hell not our ASI in the Y axis. Also where is the source? I can even make any chart and put up there.

Also these days our market went up(foreign inflow at least) because the Europe markets down and they needed alternatives to invest. Normally Sri Lankan markets had minimal impact about what happened in world markets as it CSE depends on huge momentum swings created by a few.

11Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:58 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
@Rajitha wrote:
@Backstage wrote:https://i.servimg.com/u/f35/16/55/29/78/histor10.jpg

The above chart posted by Dileepa, decisively puts to rest, the widespread myth that the SL market functions independently to the global and regional trends.

Any opinions to the contrary ?

What is represented on the Y axis? That chart is meaningless without proper coordinates or many other stuff. That sure as hell not our ASI in the Y axis. Also where is the source? I can even make any chart and put up there.

Also these days our market went up(foreign inflow at least) because the Europe markets down and they needed alternatives to invest. Normally Sri Lankan markets had minimal impact about what happened in world markets as it CSE depends on huge momentum swings created by a few.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23701-market-looks-weak?highlight=Market+is+weak

12Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:04 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Backstage wrote:
@Rajitha wrote:
@Backstage wrote:https://i.servimg.com/u/f35/16/55/29/78/histor10.jpg

The above chart posted by Dileepa, decisively puts to rest, the widespread myth that the SL market functions independently to the global and regional trends.

Any opinions to the contrary ?

What is represented on the Y axis? That chart is meaningless without proper coordinates or many other stuff. That sure as hell not our ASI in the Y axis. Also where is the source? I can even make any chart and put up there.

Also these days our market went up(foreign inflow at least) because the Europe markets down and they needed alternatives to invest. Normally Sri Lankan markets had minimal impact about what happened in world markets as it CSE depends on huge momentum swings created by a few.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23701-market-looks-weak?highlight=Market+is+weak

That still does not clarify anything. No information about what I ask there. The data given is worse than giving wiki links for a research or dissertation report Very Happy

13Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:29 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
@Rajitha wrote:
@Backstage wrote:
@Rajitha wrote:
@Backstage wrote:https://i.servimg.com/u/f35/16/55/29/78/histor10.jpg

The above chart posted by Dileepa, decisively puts to rest, the widespread myth that the SL market functions independently to the global and regional trends.

Any opinions to the contrary ?

What is represented on the Y axis? That chart is meaningless without proper coordinates or many other stuff. That sure as hell not our ASI in the Y axis. Also where is the source? I can even make any chart and put up there.

Also these days our market went up(foreign inflow at least) because the Europe markets down and they needed alternatives to invest. Normally Sri Lankan markets had minimal impact about what happened in world markets as it CSE depends on huge momentum swings created by a few.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23701-market-looks-weak?highlight=Market+is+weak

That still does not clarify anything. No information about what I ask there. The data given is worse than giving wiki links for a research or dissertation report Very Happy

Points noted with thanks.

I am hoping that Dileepa will see this and respond.

14Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:15 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Open the following links in your browser:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/KSE100:IND/chart
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JCI:IND/chart
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MXIN:IND/chart
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MXMS:IND/chart
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL:IND/chart

Set the period to 5 years and observe the similarity of movements. I thought people on this forum have enough brains to figure this much.

Dileepa has a lot of tools in his arsenal so he probably used something to aggregate all of those charts.

Cheers!

15Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:56 pm

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Rajitha, You can not compare 2 markets with their own indices.
A universal index is needed for that task. (which is provided at MSCI)
Following is an excerpt form Frontier Market Definition.

"The indices include large, mid and small cap representation and cover approximately 98% of the investable equity universe across all Frontier Markets countries.The MSCI Frontier Markets Indices are constructed using a building block methodology common to all Global Equity Indices. The MSCI Frontier Markets Indices can be segmented by size, sector and geography, allowing for consistent global views and cross regional comparisons. The MSCI Frontier Markets Indices can also be combined with the MSCI Emerging Markets and All Country Indices to create a range of extended regional and global composite indices."

If you are investing in CSE only, then a universal index is not relevant to you.

FYI,
As anubis pointed out similarity is there whether you use a universal index or not.
This is the same data with respective indices. (data from bloomberg)
Bear is Back? Elliot10

@Rajitha wrote:Normally Sri Lankan markets had minimal impact about what happened in world markets as it CSE depends on huge momentum swings created by a few.
Are you sure? I checked with 20 years of past data. What you call "Normally" had never occurred.
Do you have something to back your statement?

16Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:02 pm

kav4


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dileepa I sent you a PM. Pls reply.

17Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:15 am

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Dileepa wrote:Rajitha, You can not compare 2 markets with their own indices.
A universal index is needed for that task. (which is provided at MSCI)
Following is an excerpt form Frontier Market Definition.

"The indices include large, mid and small cap representation and cover approximately 98% of the investable equity universe across all Frontier Markets countries.The MSCI Frontier Markets Indices are constructed using a building block methodology common to all Global Equity Indices. The MSCI Frontier Markets Indices can be segmented by size, sector and geography, allowing for consistent global views and cross regional comparisons. The MSCI Frontier Markets Indices can also be combined with the MSCI Emerging Markets and All Country Indices to create a range of extended regional and global composite indices."

If you are investing in CSE only, then a universal index is not relevant to you.

FYI,
As anubis pointed out similarity is there whether you use a universal index or not.
This is the same data with respective indices. (data from bloomberg)
Bear is Back? Elliot10

@Rajitha wrote:Normally Sri Lankan markets had minimal impact about what happened in world markets as it CSE depends on huge momentum swings created by a few.
Are you sure? I checked with 20 years of past data. What you call "Normally" had never occurred.
Do you have something to back your statement?

The main financial collapse which happened recently in the world (starting in america)made really few strides in Sri Lanka. Also as I said most foreign investors invest in markets like Sri Lanka when they are loosing the option to invest in some big markets in the world. Also for example this time the bull run was due to the fact that a certain person resigned and another person came to a seat in SEC. These are arbitrary things and also if you monitored the world markets were going down mainly Europe when this time our market went up! Also our countries market shot up for years because a decade long war ended and the rate it went up for yeas was not comparable to any market in world. If you manipulate data to show something from the back yo can get almost any data but you need to say what parameters you used and also there should be some credibility where some one with knowledge back and approve those. In other works RELIABLE SOURCES.
Anyway I only invest in CSE but I'm in the list of a investment trust CC copy for daily updates and get all the data including gold silver copper and other commodity prices. And from looking at them most of the time ours and big markets up and down trends hardly see any sync!

To answer to anubis, all markets you gave btw was Indian. Another close market to ours which might have some alternate investments for foreign funds when other big markets collapse.but hi go and have a look and compare one of those even and CSE. ITs qutie different.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JCI:IND/chart
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL:IND/chart



18Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:24 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha: we were talking about markets in the Indian sub-continent all along. I found some more examples:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EBSESN+Interactive#symbol=%5Ebsesn;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EJKII+Interactive#symbol=%5Ejkii;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ECSE+Interactive#symbol=%5Ecse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

(JCI doesn't seem to be available on yahoo finance)

Now, if you correlate the dates on these charts, you'll see that all "major rallies" are in sync. Of course, each market has its own rallies as well.

In essence, the "post-war-economic-boom" is overrated.

I believe once this "Indian ocean renaissance" is over, few markets will emerge as winners while the rest of them will go back to their deserved levels. CSE is probably one of those suckers IMO.

Cheers!

19Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:39 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Anubis, in Dileepa 's original chart it also showed EMASIA line running closely with India, do you know what constitutes EMASIA ?

20Bear is Back? Empty Re: Bear is Back? Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:14 pm

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Backstage: I think you'll be able to find the constituents of those indices here: http://www.msci.com/products/indices/tools/index.html

Cheers!

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