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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Market giving a second chance! + COCR Discussion...

Market giving a second chance! + COCR Discussion...

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Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
EPS of 14 is not a big deal for them in 9 months time.

To get EPS of 14 they need a net profit around 3b for the year. As per my analysis and info. this is not difficult with micro financing and the expansions in the line.
( So diversified RICH just touch 2.5b profit after a tremendous effort )
If they go for that big profit according to their strategic plan it will be a good lesson for all other saturate companies.

And also SLSTOCK

Companies like General motors were trading with PE of 90 when it was in the rapid growth phase around 1990 under the CEO Jack Welch.
So we can give a PE of 30-40 for a real growth counter where the PEG effect will reduce the heat.

I thought VFIN will be the Next fastest growing company Be4 the COCR last year Financials.

I would like if any body can Elaborate negative side of the company and its foretasted growth.

If Targets are achieved it should be due to the talent + Luck of Mr. Egodage.

Rapaport


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Firstly when we are speaking about such figures, then it sounds to good to be true. It is definitely going to confuse many.

But then again we had companies like BFL which ran from 15/- to 500/- and LFIN from 20/- to 300/- and even RCL from 35/- to 300/- levels between 2009 and 2011. Take LOLC also as an example.

Slstock,
Yeah an earning of 5-7/- range is moderate and it is acceptable and will be brilliant in this trying conditions. They have to improve their asset value and asset quality must be in check.

Amal,
It will be brilliant if they produce a result like 14/- but it is not going to be easy. Also Microcredit can get defaulted easily and new regulations can come in for such credit. Asset value needs to increase. Policy changes can suddenly dent performance. Also collapse or losses of few other finance companies can trigger negative waves in other companies as well.

When we talk about LFIN, BFL we know it is run by tested individuals and have been around for sometime and people have some trust. Economy should turn towards positive and this can be a favourable aspect for growing companies like COCR!

COCR on the other hand is a new entrant, new management, new goals and targets. So far so good but it can be a risky delight!

I also join Amal and ask some expert view on more negatives about COCR so we can take a fair decision!

Cheers!

Rapaport


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Just an example of LFIN performance over 10 years.

Refer pgs 154, 155

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/379_1339127593.pdf

Cheers!

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Dear SlStock & Rapaport ,

I am curious on one thing.

Will EPS of 5-7 be ok for the last 6 month period or for the entire year ( Past 6 + Next 6 )

I would say EPS of 4-5 ok ( 800m - 1000m Profit ) for the past 6 month which will give a 8-10 forward EPS ( 1800m - 2200m ). I is again a 100% growth for PAT........... Am i too optimistic ?

Please note these figures are assumptions and predictions backed by my own findings so do your own analysis and invest...........

Lets wait and see. If we further discuss this becomes a Promotion for some people............

Rapaport


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I feel after an EPS of 3.78/- last year, a 100% gain (6/- to 8/- EPS this year) will be brilliant in this trying times. This seems possible but we need to watch its results.

I would prefer to see growth of this company moderate at a certain point giving some stability to its growth. Asset value has to catch up big time.

Cheers!

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Ur upper prediction 8 will be achieved.

But they cant give any chance to others, every body is aiming at micro finance so in couple of years This industry will be matured and the super normal profits will be vanished.

How about launching the Micro Finance concept to other developing countries in a mega way. Just like franchising McDonald out lets. Think on that. Crazy leaders will do crazy things at a high risk. I dont find any other way to achieve the rs. 287 with in 3 years.......

Happy trading.

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
If they achieve around 8/- it is really brilliant but like you said such rapid growth cannot be sustained and once things mature out the growth should moderate. To keep this as a long term stock one needs to analyse how the company manages to stabilise its quick growth. You would not want a quick up and a tumbling down.

Yes they have to be aggressive and grab all chances/customers as they possibly can and hold a large share of microfinance. At the same time we must watch for the risks in such an industry.

Will wait for the Sept results to give us a guide.

They are planning to open many branches this year and next year and they really have alot more area's to cover......

http://www.cclk.lk/index.php?/home/profile/branch_locations

http://www.lbfinance.com/branches.html

http://www.plc.lk/inpages/our_locations/map.php

Cheers!

wgsaman

wgsaman
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
COCR is a good investment

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@wgsaman wrote:COCR is a good investment

Yes today price is very attractive to buy.. But what to do.. mate I am out of Credit too...

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

LateTackle

LateTackle
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thank you a great analysis

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
How about SLIM Awards - Brand excellence 2012. Still not publicly published the results..
Hope COCR did a good marketing campaign during the last year..................Lets wait for the official announcement.

fairbullrun

fairbullrun
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
[quote="Rapaport"]

Maybe someone can create a list of attractive shares with their July/August prices and current prices compared.[/color] I shall do it if i have time and post it.


Could u able to do that, if so please share to the forum Very Happy

wgsaman

wgsaman
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear all COCR won the GOLD award for Service Brand of the year & Bronze award for Local brand of the year @ the SLIM Brand Excellence 2012-Commercial Credit

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
COCR 5 months results is good and B/S is very strong but this is far below from what i expected. Net interest income has up by 70% but the Additional costs incurred on new branches have diluted the profit. Any way this is at satisfactory level and Need to wait Another 2 t 4 quarters. Net assets fort he 30th Sep should be around 7.50.................

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Amal Mudunkotuwa wrote:COCR 5 months results is good and B/S is very strong but this is far below from what i expected. Net interest income has up by 70% but the Additional costs incurred on new branches have diluted the profit. Any way this is at satisfactory level and Need to wait Another 2 t 4 quarters. Net assets fort he 30th Sep should be around 7.50.................

So 6 month eps around Rs 2.5-3? So this is around my expectation levels as mentioned before.

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Ha ha but there is no Growth in EPS -----------which means u hvnt expected a growth ?

Any way growth of the net interest is eaten when it comes to bottom line due to admin expenses. Really i expected at least 2.35 for the 6 month. In this way they cant even match the last year Year end profit. But B/S getting stronger..........

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Amal yes I did not expect massive growth as I said before.

We need to understand something. When companies
are growing and in early stages we cannot expect massive quarter to quarter
growth. The growth show in March was good so I will give them allowance to consolidate before showing greater growth. There will be overhead expense in expansions etc.

This will explain why i said I would be happy with Rs 5-6 eps this year all this time. If they can improve NAV to around 10 by March 2013 I would be more than happy. Thats 100% improvement in NAV in 1 year.

Also the loan loss provitions this period was very high. 150 million! Note also that the dividend also will effect the NAV growth.


Amal Mudunkotuwa wrote:Ha ha but there is no Growth in EPS -----------which means u hvnt expected a growth ?

Any way growth of the net interest is eaten when it comes to bottom line due to admin expenses. Really i expected at least 2.35 for the 6 month. In this way they cant even match the last year Year end profit. But B/S getting stronger..........

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yep But they have not given you that expected 5-6 EPS also. For the Q they got only EPS of 1.That is y their annualized EPS is 2.35. Ur expectation also seems not materializing.

hope u got the point.

Any way if yweremove the additional Admin costs and other new branches costs, company is doing well. But since this is a finance company one set of bad Debtors will jeopardize the Bottom line. Any way lets wait and see. Good company at this level...............

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
results out??

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Amal, am a bit confused. You seem to repeatedly state about results being below my expectation. Well thats not that important is it?

You expected a lot higher eps, I expected lower than you. Now for the 5 month results are below both of us if annualized presently.

Do I sense you are dissapointed in something?

Lets await the 6 month first. Also it appears that 2nd half of the
year gave them higher return last year. So annualizing right now might
be that good.




Amal Mudunkotuwa wrote:Yep But they have not given you that expected 5-6 EPS also. For the Q they got only EPS of 1.That is y their annualized EPS is 2.35. Ur expectation also seems not materializing.

hope u got the point.

Any way if yweremove the additional Admin costs and other new branches costs, company is doing well. But since this is a finance company one set of bad Debtors will jeopardize the Bottom line. Any way lets wait and see. Good company at this level...............

41Market giving a second chance! + COCR Discussion...  - Page 2 Empty COCR..EPS & Debenture Issue. Wed Oct 31, 2012 9:46 am

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Five Month Financials Look Very positive Too... Five month Income Shown in for the Debenture Issue is 2.43 For Five month period. So expected EPS is 5.83. Taking this EPS into consideration share is trading at 2.57 PER (Share price 15). NAV keeps rising due to income enhancements Guys I beleive this share will fly soon, What your openion??
For your info I have 58000-Shares and waiting to collect more as a Long Term Investment.

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Defa this is a long term one of the best counter.

But Ur EPS calculation if wrong. EPS of 2.43 is the Annualized one. Not the 5 months. 5 months is around 1...................U better foget about the Investment for 1.5 years time.

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Slstock and Amal

Even i did not expect a huge EPS this time around and probably the next 06 months with the general economic conditions and branch expansion. Also the company is spending alot for advertising.

The company is definitely growing and bagging awards here and there and it needs to cosolidate its growth and also the NAV is improving.

Cheers!

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23836-market-giving-a-second-chance-cocr-discussion?highlight=cocr

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
yep yep i agree with both of uuuuuuuuu.

They have increased their Net interest.................
This admin cost will be covered once New branches operate at their Break even level. So expected amounts are being achieved if we exclude those new costs.

This is a growing or the fastest growing Finance company except Valible Finance.

I am waiting to see the results of PARQ. Want to see how well they are doing with Their new Swisstec Aluminum company.

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