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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » Large cap rally

Large cap rally

+2
tubal
salt
6 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Large cap rally Empty Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:02 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Large cap rally

Since couple of days, large cap started to outperform the broader markets. What this means?

The movement of the market is real and sustainable! The investors should start realising the value of long underperforming large caps - JKH, Dial, DFCC,..etc. This will drive the market substatially up - probably breaking new barriers.

Having said that, its not that there are no risks.... Inflation is a key risk among them. However, the recent GDP number shows that that North East is fast integrating with rst of the economy , and fundamntals looks very strong... going forward we can expect similar GDP nos at least for next 2-3 years minimum. If GOSl manages macro issues well, the sustainbility is not an issue.

Since large caps has taken the lead, we will probably see a bull run!

2Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:11 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

salt wrote:Large cap rally

Since couple of days, large cap started to outperform the broader markets. What this means?

The movement of the market is real and sustainable! The investors should start realising the value of long underperforming large caps - JKH, Dial, DFCC,..etc. This will drive the market substatially up - probably breaking new barriers.

Having said that, its not that there are no risks.... Inflation is a key risk among them. However, the recent GDP number shows that that North East is fast integrating with rst of the economy , and fundamntals looks very strong... going forward we can expect similar GDP nos at least for next 2-3 years minimum. If GOSl manages macro issues well, the sustainbility is not an issue.

Since large caps has taken the lead, we will probably see a bull run!

Beg to disagree with you salt. Today's rally was purely retail driven. It is true that some large caps like DFCC and JKH did rally today. But these were most horribly oversold and it was about time that they went up. DFCC went up so dramatically because they announced a large dividend.

What really went up today are useless small cap junk. There are 13 stocks that gained more than 10% (SEMB 40% to YORK 10%) every single one of them can be called rubbish. There isn't a single large cap in the top 25 gainers list.

(note I am getting this list from sorting the DFN all share list, the results may differ slightly from the CSE daily prices download (because the latter is weighted averaged))

3Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:23 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

While respecting your rights to disgree, i would like to brings out the following facts

ASI decomposition today ( 50%) of the movement by top 10 stocks - JKH (19%), Dial(10%),BUki, DFCC, Carson, SLT, LOLC,Sompath, KHL. Further, two large banks, NDB & HNB were not traded today due to splits.

JKH was moving up for last two weeks
22-Mar-11 260.5
23-Mar-11 265.3
24-Mar-11 267.8
25-Mar-11 273.7
28-Mar-11 276.6
29-Mar-11 274.9
30-Mar-11 279.9
31-Mar-11 285.6
1-Apr-11 295.6

4Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:24 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

have to agree to some part with tubal! I don't believe any of the large caps will have any huge rally for a long time! It seems unlikely the foreigners start to invest in CSE in large or some big guns in SL market start buying them! Mostly now the market is driven by retailers and it does not seems to change in the foreseeable future!
I have to disagree with the Tubals junk bit though! There were some really good companies with strong financials in the top 25 gainers! On the contrary most of the large cap blue chips are already over valued imo because of the foreign buys ( Only reason most of them bought these was as there were really few large cap blue chips not the sound financials). Stocks like JKH are trading way over sector PE ratios and thats one of the main reason it did not took off after great last quarter results. ( They have gone up already anticipating even better reports in future!)

IMO future markets will be driven by shares that will come up with surprisingly good quarterly reports and by illiquid shares backed up by good financials!

5Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:44 pm

duke


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

JKH was 300+ last december
it went down to 260
now it's gone to 297

DFCC was 200+ last december
it went down to 170
now it's 187

what kind of rally is that?
if you buy at these prices you're going to get stuck again
i'm not buying JKH unless it's 260

6Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:17 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

salt wrote:While respecting your rights to disgree, i would like to brings out the following facts

ASI decomposition today ( 50%) of the movement by top 10 stocks - JKH (19%), Dial(10%),BUki, DFCC, Carson, SLT, LOLC,Sompath, KHL. Further, two large banks, NDB & HNB were not traded today due to splits.


Salt, it's exactly the same everyday. When ever the index is green it's because of the shares that you have mentioned above. Those shares are the biggest contributors everyday. If the index goes up only 0.05% it's usually because JKH, CARS and SLTL gained 20 cents while every thing else declined.

We have discussed often times about how everyone's portfolio is red while the index is green. The index has been green since february first because of the GREG group rallly, followed immediately afterwards by BUKI/CARS group and then the infamous WAPO effect.

Glad to see that even Rajitha, someone whom I disagree with very often seems to be thinking along the same lines. And I am really sorry to see Duke, perhaps the most outspoken bear in this forum once again get a negative rep for speaking the truth.

7Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:23 pm

Meta Trader

Meta Trader
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

last couple of days movement of the JKH share price is very suspicious to me.
could be a rumor or another trap set up by brokers to unload it on retailers Suspect

P.S
last year it shoot up from 300-350 within an week due to a rumor ( 2010-09-23 to 2010-10-01 )

Exclamation

8Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:34 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Meta Trader wrote:last couple of days movement of the JKH share price is very suspicious to me.
could be a rumor or another trap set up by brokers to unload it on retailers Suspect

P.S
last year it shoot up from 300-350 within an week due to a rumor ( 2010-09-23 to 2010-10-01 )

Exclamation

Ah yes, I remember that well. I think it was at 289 that I sold my JKH. A couple of days later, it was 300 and then on the last day of that bull run, the price jumped up 10% in a day. All for no valid reason. It's been declining steadily ever since. When JKH touched 260 recently I was tempted buy back what I sold last year, but refrained because there are better stocks available.

9Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:47 pm

Rocky

Rocky
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

After reading all yr comments I agree that JKH is left for the ones who will be satisfied to make 6-7% p.a. return with no risks.



10Large cap rally Empty Re: Large cap rally Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:54 pm

duke


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

actually you get around 1% yield

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