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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Fedup with avaraging MAL - Expect advice

Fedup with avaraging MAL - Expect advice

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1Fedup with avaraging MAL - Expect advice Empty Fedup with avaraging MAL - Expect advice Fri Oct 19, 2012 12:46 pm

nkuda


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Normally I'm strict to 7% loss cutting rule. But with the share MAL, I didn't apply that 7% rule. I'm collecting and averaging MAL since price 5.40. I collected MAL at 5.40, 5.20,5.00,4.90 prices because it's very much Undervalued and the present favorable situation to Plantation sector.

But it's continuously going down by 10 cents per day, So, I'm fed up with averaging MAL
and feel to apply loss cutting rule now. I expect advice from slstock and other experts, should I average more or apply loss cut rule ? ( I have holding power and can keep the share maximum one more year).

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I would stop averaging and await the Financial results to take further decision. MAL tea business might have got caught to some part of drought but their Tea Export and Rubber is expected to do well. So I don;t expect MAL is affected that by much. If there is plantaion run ofcouse MAL will also benefit as it is still one of the most undervalued in the sector both PE and NAV.

But this is just a logical guess but please do not follow strictly my advise. Short term market behavior depends on supply and demand.

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I am just curious only (nor expert).
What is your average Price as of now?
Why so much worry if you have 365 days of holding power ? Shocked

nkuda


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kithsiri wrote:I am just curious only (nor expert).
What is your average Price as of now?
Why so much worry if you have 365 days of holding power ? Shocked


1. Average price is 5.20.
2. Can hold but it's difficult to see it's continuously down(When I see my unrealized loss) Embarassed .

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
4.1-4.5 good price to re enter for profit target of 6.50+

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@nkuda wrote:
@Kithsiri wrote:I am just curious only (nor expert).
What is your average Price as of now?
Why so much worry if you have 365 days of holding power ? Shocked


1. Average price is 5.20.
2. Can hold but it's difficult to see it's continuously down(When I see my unrealized loss) Embarassed .
dont see it continuosly...you mind will play crazy.when you see unrealised gains and losses ,check in the morning and evening Very Happy but have your PT well planned.. rabbit

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I own some but not in great quantity and mine is 4.9.
I am ready to wait it out a few more months even.
Above 6 would make me fly. Very Happy

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@nkuda wrote:Normally I'm strict to 7% loss cutting rule. But with the share MAL, I didn't apply that 7% rule. I'm collecting and averaging MAL since price 5.40. I collected MAL at 5.40, 5.20,5.00,4.90 prices because it's very much Undervalued and the present favorable situation to Plantation sector.

But it's continuously going down by 10 cents per day, So, I'm fed up with averaging MAL
and feel to apply loss cutting rule now. I expect advice from slstock and other experts, should I average more or apply loss cut rule ? ( I have holding power and can keep the share maximum one more year).

For gods sake.. Stop averaging and buy something else.. U can catch a falling knife to some extent and bring down your price.. So u'll be benefited in the next run.. But if this goes to 3 in a week ur missing the chances of buying any other counter...

Look at some other pennies;
AAF - if goes in to 2.40-2.50 and not fall
PAP - if goes to 2.30 - 2.40 and not fall
RICH - if can hold down above 8.40

Above is not a BUY recommendation.. Just pointing out there are counters where u can get a med term (1-3 months) gains too..

market bull

market bull
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
If i brought MAL at 5.4 initially my next averaging price can be 4.7-4.8.I can see 10% fluctuation of the share without worries.

My averaging method for this share in bullish market.

1-5.4.
2-4.8
4-4.3

& exit at 5.10-5.20l
But dont go for average now.Wait till it comes to 4.10-4.20 l to average again,

If you invest 1 rupee,you have to keep at least 3-4 rupees for average at right time.If not ,you cant survive from this game.If you dont have money to average,think this share as a long term like others do.

[/quote]="nkuda"]Normally I'm strict to 7% loss cutting rule. But with the share MAL, I didn't apply that 7% rule. I'm collecting and averaging MAL since price 5.40. I collected MAL at 5.40, 5.20,5.00,4.90 prices because it's very much Undervalued and the present favorable situation to Plantation sector.

But it's continuously going down by 10 cents per day, So, I'm fed up with averaging MAL
and feel to apply loss cutting rule now. I expect advice from slstock and other experts, should I average more or apply loss cut rule ? ( I have holding power and can keep the share maximum one more year).
[/quote]

zen

zen
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I also have MAL @ 5.40 and I won't average until I'm sure that the next bull run is going to start. (like the situation at ASI 4800-4900 levels last month)
You do know averaging is just you hiding your mistakes from your own brain right? Buy the share that you think will give you the best return. Sell at a loss and buy back if you are sure that the share price will fall more than 2.28% (the tax you have to pay when you sell and buy)
My investment cycle is from one major resistance level to another resistance level. Now I'm not doing anything because I don't understand which way the market is heading, 5400 or 6000.

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@zen wrote:I also have MAL @ 5.40 and I won't average until I'm sure that the next bull run is going to start. (like the situation at ASI 4800-4900 levels last month)
You do know averaging is just you hiding your mistakes from your own brain right? Buy the share that you think will give you the best return. Sell at a loss and buy back if you are sure that the share price will fall more than 2.28% (the tax you have to pay when you sell and buy)
My investment cycle is from one major resistance level to another resistance level. Now I'm not doing anything because I don't understand which way the market is heading, 5400 or 6000.
selling part is a difficult for us to stomach specially when its in unrealised losses, but for mal i think he can still hold on Smile thats what i saw when i checked the chart.

I am not holding MAL X currently.

TAH Smile

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi,
I'm not a fan of MAL, but a big fan of averaging.
Anyway averaging is a very serious topic.
Following is a signal generator I use when I average.
Fedup with avaraging MAL - Expect advice Jkh_av10

This script assumes that you buy half the quantity you have at every green arrow and
sell half the quantity you have at every red arrow. (You never go out of stock)
Averaging points are marked with blue circles.
In my opinion counters like JKH are risk free to average (given that you receive a good dividend every year).

FYI, following is the buy/sell signals for MAL.
Fedup with avaraging MAL - Expect advice Mal_av10
MAL just had a good sell signal last week (Ideally you should have sold half of holdings).
If you average at this point you are just asking for troubles.
Also I'm little uncomfortable with the tight holding period.

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is the first topic I read in the eve. A good discussion. There are some concerns about plantation results in the comming quarter as slstock has pointed out, drought in some tea areas particularly in the UVA region (In other years July-September is the UVA season) and some what lower rubber prices. But tea prices were much higher in the quarter than previous years. So it's very difficult to forcast results, but feels should be OK.

The mistake we have done here is, though value wise MAL is worth at 5.50 two months back it was at 3.40 levels. I also done the mistake not selling at 6/-, but later realize the actual reality and sold at 5.60-5.30. The reality is people who have collected less than 4/- , Rs.5.50 is a huge return. So more tendency was to SELL.

Second mistake is averaging. AS BULL has pointed out buying in close intervals is not averaging. When the market volatility if high we should average in bigger spreads.

I did the same mistake in last year.

But I don't think there's much to worry in your case. You can easily shed what you have purchased at 4.90 and 5.00 in a good day. Decision is yours. You can either wait till results or can sell what you have purchaed at 4.90 @ 5.00 and 5.00 @ 5.10. Put it as a GTC order. I sold some MAL.X @ 5.10 few days back.

Generally these days penny stocks are under pressure. Today I bought TESS @ 2.70 in the morning, then some body unload at 2.60. Still there's some selling pressure.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Dileepa has talked abt an important strategy in averaging..

I also like to adapt that whenever I do some mistakes in buying.. Sometimes I dont wait for confirmations and buy in haste and see the counter fall another 30-70 cents... So the above mention strategy implies a lot in this scenario to me..

Yes its a good thing to sell in chunks and realize profits time to time..

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Wasn't the forum exerts saying, its a great share to buy even over Rs 5 few weeks ago? I can remember so many promotions for this share mainly experts here and admins !

If you going by their concepts I would say go go, sell all others and buy MAL Twisted Evil



Last edited by Rajitha on Sat Oct 20, 2012 2:21 am; edited 1 time in total

Sasanka De Silva

Sasanka De Silva
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Daggers out again ? Rolling Eyes

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
i am gonna stay far far away then......mang daru pal karaya Very Happy

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
weradilawath pihi parak wedunoth ..... Razz

good night traders

see you on monday again.. Basketball

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
For people with MAL/Plantation interests and Adults who behave like 5 year olds please read in this sequence. For short term people MAL has given lot of opportunities to trade. For others who bought at Rs 3.5 they are still with 40% profit to decide what to do ;-)

Posted when Mal was 3.4 to 3.5

1) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t21855-malwatte-valley-plantation-scores-high?highlight=malwatte

2) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t22643-topic

3) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23353-let-s-talk-about-maln#140564

4) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t22982-i-enter-the-market-again-with-mal-and-aaf

5) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23048-malmal-winning-pick-in-plantation



The below is not meant to attack or degrade anyone.
But as a forum Admin ( for what ever it is worth) and a member who was here since the forum had less than 50 people , I expect people to follow forum etiquettes , respect others and not insult , and follow decorum to make this a good place for everyone to share ideas and opinions. No one is superior than other here. Unless they adjust we have to take action and some one has to .




New comers can be easily deceived by Smart Alec statement made by some parties who show up to the forum from time to time to show they are the greatest. But if one can attack others with false info and not heeding requests to stop this nuisance , they should also not mind if part of their history is known to the forum so all sides to stories are know by new comers. Fair is Fair.

Note below was said when KGAL was at true peak Rs 270-280s . KGAL is now Rs 110. If it was valued over Rs 270 is it not valued now at Rs 110 hmmm ? scratch What would be this gentleman approach now . Please enlighten us as it is nearly 3 times cheaper?

1)

@Rajitha wrote:
I never say future prices but as you asked and
have some Intel I would say by this Thursday it should pass Rs. 300. The
finical report is due to come on this Wednesday told by a Intel I
believe is true. From my estimates the quarterly earnings have to be at
least Rs 12. Also as the rubber prices are still hiking and hit a max
last month I would say by next quarterly they should produce a way
better result. this means I'm expecting the share price to pass rs
350-400 in 3 months time.
Ofc if they go for a split the price wil climb
a lot as at the moment the price of the share is a tad 2 high for the
retailers.
PLZ do your own study though this is in no way 100% garented stuff but analysis backed up my studies.



2)
@Rajitha wrote:

I didn't gave prices at certain times but I'm
saying now it will definitely have to pass Rs 300 by next quarter
reports!
This is considering there are at least some sort of basics
running this market except the manipulators and lambs who follow them!
Well I have not been wrong about something I posted so far so lets wait and see!

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t837-kgal-what-happening#4979


For years all seniors member of this forum was attacked.

This one is for your weekly entertainment . As you will note these "Senior member attacks" were there in the past . It appears now Small and myself is also dragged ;-). there are lot more who were attacked.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t8199-kgal-interim-financial-statement-30-06-2011




Also see the below and deduce amazing predictions . I would not pass to read this thread people ;-)

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t14287p25-welcome-to-the-next-phase


Yes Rajitha my friend , if you keep not respecting others and insulting them, provide attacks without justice, not listen to repeated requests to stop this madness , I hope a taste of your own medicine might bring you down to earth ( but i doubt knowing how you act in the forum)

Anyway, all I request from you is to be decent, act as matured Adult, if you have valid argument present it without insult and in educated manner and help this forum to be a better place minus your slander. Please do not make this a paradise for you to stay away for months and only return to insult more when the fancy takes you conveniently forgetting your past.

As you know there are lot more skeletons in your past than above. Please let us not dig them okay to save my time and yourself. Please act smarter now and realiase we all are humans and make mistakes at some point. Don;t show you are the best by insulting others when you yourself have made grave mistakes. Thats all I request
Thank you.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
Note below was said when KGAL was at true peak Rs 270-280s . KGAL is now Rs 110. If it was valued over Rs 270 is it not valued now at Rs 110 hmmm ? scratch What would be this gentleman approach now . Please enlighten us as it is nearly 3 times cheaper?

1)

@Rajitha wrote:
I never say future prices but as you asked and
have some Intel I would say by this Thursday it should pass Rs. 300. The
finical report is due to come on this Wednesday told by a Intel I
believe is true. From my estimates the quarterly earnings have to be at
least Rs 12. Also as the rubber prices are still hiking and hit a max
last month I would say by next quarterly they should produce a way
better result. this means I'm expecting the share price to pass rs
350-400 in 3 months time.
Ofc if they go for a split the price wil climb
a lot as at the moment the price of the share is a tad 2 high for the
retailers.
PLZ do your own study though this is in no way 100% garented stuff but analysis backed up my studies.

OK now Rajitha's analysis implied him that KGAL had to pass 300 in short term (at that time) and in 3 months to pass 350-400 which he has amicably shared with the forum.
KGAL has eventaully reached all time high of 285.. So forum members were expected it reaching 300, 350.. lets not talk abt more than that.. So we hope that forum members will not moan as KGAL has fallen to 210, 180, 160, 140, 110, etc...

Now where has this intelligent analysis failed?

One could be an expert in the sector he/she talks abt, but should not overly carried away with few qtrs of good financials imo.. This provides another example of over-optimism of a forum member and broken promisses by KGAL.


2) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t837-kgal-what-happening#4979

@Rajitha wrote:
@mjrocker wrote:Lots of people talked about kgal,nw its going down after massive profit will it continue going down like this,some people told it wil pass 400 nw going down,
will i exit frm kgal and enter to bfl?
I didn't gave prices at certain times but I'm saying now it will definitely have to pass Rs 300 by next quarter reports! This is considering there are at least some sort of basics running this market except the manipulators and lambs who follow them!
Well I have not been wrong about something I posted so far so lets wait and see!

Ohh.. yes.. who said Rajitha has given numbers.. This 350-400 was a figure by a person from Mulleriyawa or somewhere closer as my memory serves.. Soryy folks cant remember his name.. and the first quote it also nt from him.
Only Rajitha's analysis implied him that KGAL had to pass 300 in short term
Ahh.. This was said in February 2011


3) This was in August 2011..

@Rajitha wrote: What i posted even like a week ago was considering no addition of extra chargers like MAL did they should EPS of Rs 6.50 -8! In fact they have shown EPS towards the top end range of my expectations! So I'm quite happy with the results and so would anyone with a brain who knows anything about the industry! We will be able to see how the company keep performing here after the wage hike and I have quite a big faith in the company with the current rubber prices!
Hopefully for the next financial year the EPS would be Rs 20-30! which means a really undervalued company in CSE considering no wage hike for 2 more years!

PS:- You should actually praise people like me who rightly predict all reports beforehand as I did for DIMO KGAL and BFL among many others, compared with the retard lot here that keep on promoting same stocks with false numbers and theories!

We can precisely understand and respect for the fella who had quite big brains..

Here, I'm also stupid to think the ASI may not dip than 5000.. But I at least warned on the resistance and breaking of support.. Eventually ASI hit 4725 ;(

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t8199-kgal-interim-financial-statement-30-06-2011

@smallville wrote:Today's start could be an initiator of many things.. When u select the devil, make sure u select the known one.. Having said that dropping ASI below 5000 level is not an option in my view, so this could be <<<<< IT >>>>> IF 5800 could act as the ground level this upward momentum may continue if not we're in a sorry state..

Why all this??? There's a big resistance gap in 6500-6700 zone as I could see.. ASI can start to drop after touching 6500-6700 resistance zone trigger ring alarms.. Even there could be heavy vols and inadvertently u might think this is heavy buying too..

What I'd like to iterate is; there's a chance of ASI going up 10% or about 200-300 points in a short bull run.. But play wisely Wink

Welll... dont say we didnt say so... Selection is the vital aspect these days Wink

@slstock wrote:
Anyway, all I request from you is to be decent, act as matured Adult, if you have valid argument present it without insult and in educated manner and help this forum to be a better place minus your slander. Please do not make this a paradise for you to stay away for months and only return to insult more when the fancy takes you conveniently forgetting your past.

As you know there are lot more skeletons in your past than above. Please let us not dig them okay to save my time and yourself. Please act smarter now and realiase we all are humans and make mistakes at some point. Don;t show you are the best by insulting others when you yourself have made grave mistakes. Thats all I request
Thank you.

Sls.. we cannot expect such behaviour from a 5 year old adult Twisted Evil Why should you ask a podison to become a lokuson.. He'll mature with time... Only thing he expects is to remind his past as he forgets his own talk.
Now u know this is normally the expected behaviour of a 5 year old as they have a memory of a Goldfish, remember?

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