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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Good for Hotels ? Lonely Planet names SL as best to visit in 2013

Good for Hotels ? Lonely Planet names SL as best to visit in 2013

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Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
aj ,

I didnt get ur point.
All the people/analysts says sri lanka will be having lot of rooms than the growth in the industry. As per my knowledge We had around 14,000 rooms 2009 and now already another 14000+ additionsl rooms are under construction. And also same amount is in the list to start the construction.

So there will be a huge supply of rooms by the year 2016. If Gov. cnt get the target tourists arrival of 2.5m ( at least 2m ) hotel sector will have a big correction but it seems we are on the track so far . And also there were new lows introduced on the minimum prices of rooms which is again a sigh of low demand. Hotel having a great occupancy level after the war and the same time room rates are increasing.

Hotels can increase their product portfolio + varying Prices for those items + special packages + New markets + and promotions to increase the occupancy. No. of rooms is a constant in the short run but all above are elastic. If some body has the current PE ration of the overall hotel sector please share it.
Thanks.

Hanoifortune


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@UKboy wrote:I would like to see these kinds of promotions targeting year 2015, not 2013.
2013 is a bit early. Rolling Eyes
(above is just what I think)
By 2015, Sri Lanka will have to compete with Myanmar.

sriranga


Co-Admin
Amal Mudunkotuwa wrote:aj ,

I didnt get ur point.
All the people/analysts says sri lanka will be having lot of rooms than the growth in the industry. As per my knowledge We had around 14,000 rooms 2009 and now already another 14000+ additionsl rooms are under construction. And also same amount is in the list to start the construction.

So there will be a huge supply of rooms by the year 2016. If Gov. cnt get the target tourists arrival of 2.5m ( at least 2m ) hotel sector will have a big correction but it seems we are on the track so far . And also there were new lows introduced on the minimum prices of rooms which is again a sigh of low demand. Hotel having a great occupancy level after the war and the same time room rates are increasing.

Hotels can increase their product portfolio + varying Prices for those items + special packages + New markets + and promotions to increase the occupancy. No. of rooms is a constant in the short run but all above are elastic. If some body has the current PE ration of the overall hotel sector please share it.
Thanks.

The domestic hotels and tourism industry is set for buoyant growth
Jul 19, 2012 (LBT) - Sri Lanka’s tourist arrivals in June were at 65,245 (up 21.6% YoY). As of YTD June, tourist arrivals increased 18.7% to452,867. With the end of the civil war, nearly two-thirds of the coastal/beach areas have become accessible and open for development. The demand for beachfront land for hotel development has increased. The existing hoteliers have started expansion projects, and a number of international operators (such as Shangri-La, Sheraton and Marriott) have shown strong interest to build hotels in Sri Lanka.

Given the growing interest in the hotel industry, we believe the sector is set for buoyant growth underpinned by increased tourist influx and capacity expansion. Until winter 2009, hotel occupancy levels were low; occupancy rates in city hotels averaged ~50% compared with 40% in resorts. A room in a 5-star hotel was typically available for US$60 per night as against US$35 per night for a resort room. Currently, occupancy levels in city hotels have increased to an average 70% and occupancy levels in resorts have also increased to 65%. Average room rates (ARR) have doubled since 2009; a room in a 5-star hotel in Colombo city is currently at US$130 per night (minimum rate of US$120) and that in a 4-star hotel is at US$90 per night.

Sri Lankan government targets 1m tourist arrivals in 2012. The domestic hotels and tourism industry is set for buoyant growth. The government has a target of 2.5m tourist arrivals annually by 2016. The government expects nearly 1m visitors in 2012. The sharp growth in tourist arrivals in Cambodia and Vietnam after the end of the conflict is an indicator to the potential for post-war Sri Lanka International hotel operators show strong interest in Sri Lanka Local conglomerates, such as John Keells Holdings (currently controls 40% of the room supply in 5-star city hotels and 800 resort rooms), Aitken Spence, and Hemas Holdings, have recently refurbished and increased room capacity. Hemas Holdings, for instance, has tied up with Thailand’s Minor International to develop the “Anantara” brand in Sri Lanka. Hemas also has its own portfolio of hotels. Shangri-La (a leisure group based in Hong Kong) recently acquired 10 acres of government property near the Galle Face Green promenade for US$125m. Shangri-La plans to invest US$500m in building a 7-star hotel with 500 rooms, which is likely to be complete by 2015. Further, international hotel chains, such as the 200-room Marriott (with Nahil Wijesuriya of East West Properties), Six Senses (with Aitken Spence), Movenpick (with Softlogic), Minor International of Thailand (with Hemas Holdings) and the 306-room Sheraton (owned by Starwood Hotels and Resorts), have also shown interest in setting up shop in Sri Lanka. Other international groups, such as Hilton and Taj, already have a presence in Sri Lanka.

Opportunities outweigh challenges. Future growth in tourism will hinge on development of infrastructure and accommodation capacity. In 2011, the country had around 14,653 graded rooms (total current capacity is ~21k), of which Colombo accounted for 5,659 rooms. Hence, incumbent hoteliers would benefit from a spike in tourist arrivals in the short to medium term; these hoteliers should see strong margin expansion. We believe that the industry would require an addition of 22,500 rooms during the next five years to achieve the target of 2.5m tourist arrivals by 2016. Against this backdrop, a number of foreign hotel chains, existing hoteliers and companies have aggressively started to look for new hotel ventures. New capacity would take at least 24-36 months to come on stream.
http://www.lbt.lk/news/economic/2309-tourist-hub

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

VISA


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
i think we must ask how many nights (man days) tourist stay in sri lanka than this 2.5 mil tourists for the year. what is the average stay time of a tourist in sri lanka. this is no singapore. here tourist tend to stay more than just 2 or 3 days. what is the expected man days in sri lanka. that is 2.5mil x days. then we will understand about the capacity.

sriranga


Co-Admin
@VISA wrote:i think we must ask how many nights (man days) tourist stay in sri lanka than this 2.5 mil tourists for the year. what is the average stay time of a tourist in sri lanka. this is no singapore. here tourist tend to stay more than just 2 or 3 days. what is the expected man days in sri lanka. that is 2.5mil x days. then we will understand about the capacity.

May be this chart will give any idea?
Good for Hotels ? Lonely Planet names SL as best to visit in 2013 - Page 2 Period10

Source: http://www.sltda.lk/sites/default/files/SL_Annual_Stat_Report-2011.pdf

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

aj


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Amal Mudunkotuwa wrote:aj ,

I didnt get ur point.
All the people/analysts says sri lanka will be having lot of rooms than the growth in the industry.

Growth in the industry is there after Sri Lanka been closed for 30 years. What I'm saying is that the hotels listed in the stock market how that should affect the current listed hotels. Just because tourists arrive in loads does not mean those hotels can take them in. Only thing they can do is increase price. The rooms, pools, restaurants are constant of the existing hotels.
Just because the harvest of coconuts in the newly cultivated lands around your estate are massive, does not increase your old land's coconuts. Smile

VISA


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
world most occupied hotels can achieve only 85%. no hotel can achieve more than 85% in normal operation.

so let say 2.5 mil arrivals by 2016
avg stay 10 days (sltda data by sriranga)
so man days 25,000,000
per day 25,000.000/365 = 68493
let take this as 68000.
so any day of the year sri lanka will have 68000 tourist in the country.

Is this target can be achieve ??????

let assume every room there is 2 guests.

no rooms occupied 68000/2 = 34000
85 % occupancy rate 34000/0.85 = 40000 rooms

if it is 2,000,000 arrivals it will be 31000 rooms

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@VISA wrote:world most occupied hotels can achieve only 85%. no hotel can achieve more than 85% in normal operation.

so let say 2.5 mil arrivals by 2016
avg stay 10 days (sltda data by sriranga)
so man days 25,000,000
per day 25,000.000/365 = 68493
let take this as 68000.
so any day of the year sri lanka will have 68000 tourist in the country.

Is this target can be achieve ??????

let assume every room there is 2 guests.

no rooms occupied 68000/2 = 34000
85 % occupancy rate 34000/0.85 = 40000 rooms

if it is 2,000,000 arrivals it will be 31000 rooms

Good for Hotels ? Lonely Planet names SL as best to visit in 2013 - Page 2 Hotel10

Source: http://www.sltda.lk/sites/default/files/SL_Annual_Stat_Report-2011.pdf

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

VISA


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
for year 2011, 855000 guest arrived and they had 5,000.000 guest nights.
that comes to 5.8 days (6 days)
arriving date and departing date make it 8 days.

so some thing wrong with 10 day average. can some one explain the missing 2 days. They stay under a tree or spend the night in the car ?

2 days means 30% additional rooms of hotel bookings.

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@VISA wrote:for year 2011, 855000 guest arrived and they had 5,000.000 guest nights.
that comes to 5.8 days (6 days)
arriving date and departing date make it 8 days.

so some thing wrong with 10 day average. can some one explain the missing 2 days. They stay under a tree or spend the night in the car ?

2 days means 30% additional rooms of hotel bookings.

Some of the so called guests may be Srilankan with foreign passport.

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/asia/where-to-go-in-2013-sri-lanka-8219292.html

Read the above link especially the comments made by readers.

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Hanoifortune wrote:
@UKboy wrote:I would like to see these kinds of promotions targeting year 2015, not 2013.
2013 is a bit early. Rolling Eyes
(above is just what I think)
By 2015, Sri Lanka will have to compete with Myanmar.
Competition to attract more tourists in not something unsual.
It happens all the time & it will not change tomorrow.

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Infrastructural changes only will not be enough to keep them coming back again and again.
Attitudes too need to change (towards the Environment and towards the visitors).

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