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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Time to Collect TAFL

Time to Collect TAFL

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1Time to Collect TAFL Empty Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 11:02 am

cse.investor

cse.investor
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Hi All,
Time to collect some TAFL. With BFL reaching an all time high TAFL is bound to follow.

2Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 11:36 am

High.Risk.High.Return

High.Risk.High.Return
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
As I earlier said both BFL and TAFL will be shine star during the year 2011.
Several times I mentioned, we have to expect massive & mega rally before 20th April’2011.
Why…?

BFL
31.12.2010 end quarter EPS = 10.20
Annualized forecasted EPS for next 04 quarters = minimum 40.0
Predicted EPS for 31.03.2011 end quarter = 12.50 (with the earnings growth).
Food sector PER = 16.0
Hence Expected Share price = EPS 40.0 X PER 16.0 = Rs.640/-
With the Market PER of say 18.4, Share price = EPS 40 x PER 18.4 = Rs.736/-
Some times during next 04 quarters, BFL will go more than 50.0 of EPS, with their potential new farm.

TAFL
31.12.2010 end quarter EPS = 5.20
Annualized forecasted EPS for next 04 quarters = minimum 20.0
Predicted EPS for 31.03.2011 end quarter = 7.50 (with the earnings growth).
Food sector PER = 16.0
Hence Expected Share price = EPS 20.0 X PER 16.0 = Rs.320/-
With the Market PER of say 18.4, Share price = EPS 20 x PER 18.4 = Rs368/-
I think, TAFL will go more than above EPS, because of TRUST from chairman’s review in last annual report.

In short,
World cup demand, tourist demand & coming sinhala new year demand, poultry shares have benefited.
I think in short run, possible BFL to break Rs.620/- and TAFL to break Rs.260/-.


3Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 11:53 am

kuk83

kuk83
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@High.Risk.High.Return wrote:As I earlier said both BFL and TAFL will be shine star during the year 2011.
Several times I mentioned, we have to expect massive & mega rally before 20th April’2011.
Why…?

BFL
31.12.2010 end quarter EPS = 10.20
Annualized forecasted EPS for next 04 quarters = minimum 40.0
Predicted EPS for 31.03.2011 end quarter = 12.50 (with the earnings growth).
Food sector PER = 16.0
Hence Expected Share price = EPS 40.0 X PER 16.0 = Rs.640/-
With the Market PER of say 18.4, Share price = EPS 40 x PER 18.4 = Rs.736/-
Some times during next 04 quarters, BFL will go more than 50.0 of EPS, with their potential new farm.

TAFL
31.12.2010 end quarter EPS = 5.20
Annualized forecasted EPS for next 04 quarters = minimum 20.0
Predicted EPS for 31.03.2011 end quarter = 7.50 (with the earnings growth).
Food sector PER = 16.0
Hence Expected Share price = EPS 20.0 X PER 16.0 = Rs.320/-
With the Market PER of say 18.4, Share price = EPS 20 x PER 18.4 = Rs368/-
I think, TAFL will go more than above EPS, because of TRUST from chairman’s review in last annual report.

In short,
World cup demand, tourist demand & coming sinhala new year demand, poultry shares have benefited.
I think in short run, possible BFL to break Rs.620/- and TAFL to break Rs.260/-.



Yes, TAFL have to follow BFL.

4Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 12:35 pm

beginner

beginner
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@High.Risk.High.Return wrote:As I earlier said both BFL and TAFL will be shine star during the year 2011.
Several times I mentioned, we have to expect massive & mega rally before 20th April’2011.
Why…?

BFL
31.12.2010 end quarter EPS = 10.20
Annualized forecasted EPS for next 04 quarters = minimum 40.0
Predicted EPS for 31.03.2011 end quarter = 12.50 (with the earnings growth).
Food sector PER = 16.0
Hence Expected Share price = EPS 40.0 X PER 16.0 = Rs.640/-
With the Market PER of say 18.4, Share price = EPS 40 x PER 18.4 = Rs.736/-
Some times during next 04 quarters, BFL will go more than 50.0 of EPS, with their potential new farm.

TAFL
31.12.2010 end quarter EPS = 5.20
Annualized forecasted EPS for next 04 quarters = minimum 20.0
Predicted EPS for 31.03.2011 end quarter = 7.50 (with the earnings growth).
Food sector PER = 16.0
Hence Expected Share price = EPS 20.0 X PER 16.0 = Rs.320/-
With the Market PER of say 18.4, Share price = EPS 20 x PER 18.4 = Rs368/-
I think, TAFL will go more than above EPS, because of TRUST from chairman’s review in last annual report.

In short,
World cup demand, tourist demand & coming sinhala new year demand, poultry shares have benefited.
I think in short run, possible BFL to break Rs.620/- and TAFL to break Rs.260/-.



Mr.High.Risk.High.Return
What about GRAN???

EPF/Nimal Perara/LGL/perpetual invest in GRAN

5Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 12:36 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
What about GRAN?

I think i there is no detachements of the three above!

6Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 1:38 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:What about GRAN?

I think i there is no detachements of the three above!

most of TAFL is owned by GRAN. ( 57 % )

Last time TAFL started the run and bypassed GRAN in a big margin. After few weeks, GRAN started moving and overtook TAFL.

While TAFL was rising and most of the guys were running after it I collected GRAN.

I am doing the same thing now , I do not know what will happen.

7Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 1:40 pm

BenZ

BenZ
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
yeah. GRAN still good to buy at current level for the maximum gain..

i went after GRAN Very Happy

8Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 1:48 pm

swan03


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@BenZ wrote:yeah. GRAN still good to buy at current level for the maximum gain..

i went after GRAN Very Happy

I went after GRAN & TAFL as well. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

9Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:57 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Today I entered GRAN & TAFL equally spreading the investment between these two.. Wink
May be we can see both running after the BFL run rests for a while by 500-520.. I think the BFL run is on an anticipation of greater results we've discussed so many times..
GRAN has a dividend announced, thinking abt it, its good on future earnings too..

10Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:24 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@salt wrote:What about GRAN?

I think i there is no detachements of the three above!

most of TAFL is owned by GRAN. ( 57 % )

Last time TAFL started the run and bypassed GRAN in a big margin. After few weeks, GRAN started moving and overtook TAFL.

While TAFL was rising and most of the guys were running after it I collected GRAN.

I am doing the same thing now , I do not know what will happen.

Yes, Chinwi I mentioned this several times in the forum over past few days. Last time too TAFL was runnign ahead but then GRAN over took later. Both are good couters but Gran is financially strongter. TAFL owes GRAN 1.3billion from what i recall. Also Tafl is recoverign from losses to close the gap. So for medium to longer term GRAN is better in my opinion. For short term TAFL is alo good. Recall that these share trading around Rs 240 and Rs 260s in the last run.

GRan had 2 crossings at Rs 250 and RS 204 is I recall right

11Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Wed Apr 06, 2011 6:10 am

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Its time to collect, but not on credit

12Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Wed Apr 06, 2011 7:52 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
yes tafl will be following soon along with gran.

my next barriers : bfl - 600 , tafl - 300 , gran - 275

13Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Wed Apr 06, 2011 8:26 am

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
ECON
Why TAFL should be higher than GRAN ???

14Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:03 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@Hawk Eye wrote:ECON
Why TAFL should be higher than GRAN ???

number of shares for TAFL is about 1/3 of GRAN.
So I expect price increase of TAFL is little bit higher than that of GRAN.

15Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Wed Apr 06, 2011 4:25 pm

chamith

chamith
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
But GRAN is the parent company. As i remember 80% of TAFL is own by GRAN.
Therefore any profit they make ultimately in GRAN's pocket.

And i saw a news that TAFL yet to pay another 1.3 billion to GRAN
http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2011/03/31/sri-lanka-three-acre-farms-yet-pay-rs13-billion-ceylon-grain-elevators-plc

Therefore i believe GRAN should be valued higher than TAFL...

16Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Thu Apr 07, 2011 12:51 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@chamith wrote:But GRAN is the parent company. As i remember 80% of TAFL is own by GRAN.
Therefore any profit they make ultimately in GRAN's pocket.

And i saw a news that TAFL yet to pay another 1.3 billion to GRAN
http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2011/03/31/sri-lanka-three-acre-farms-yet-pay-rs13-billion-ceylon-grain-elevators-plc

Therefore i believe GRAN should be valued higher than TAFL...

I have made this point several times. Also Tafl has soem losses from the past which they are covering with the profits. In the ;ast rally TAFL was initially ahead but later Gran caught up.

Both TAFL and GRAN good but what I am saying is GRAN should be teated at premium due to it strong financials.
Again for short term TAFL can go aheaqd of GRAN. But it should adjust in the longer run as before

17Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Thu Apr 07, 2011 1:28 am

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@chamith wrote:But GRAN is the parent company. As i remember 80% of TAFL is own by GRAN.
Therefore any profit they make ultimately in GRAN's pocket.

And i saw a news that TAFL yet to pay another 1.3 billion to GRAN
http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2011/03/31/sri-lanka-three-acre-farms-yet-pay-rs13-billion-ceylon-grain-elevators-plc

Therefore i believe GRAN should be valued higher than TAFL...
Even I believe GRAN is worth more than TAFL. But small correction on your statement. As of December, 2010 interim statement GRAN owns 57.21% of TAFL.

18Time to Collect TAFL Empty Re: Time to Collect TAFL Thu Apr 07, 2011 2:19 am

chamith

chamith
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks monster....

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